Time/CNN: How Iran Has Bush Over a Barrel

[JohnyCanuck]

SNIP

The Iranians haven't been shy about making clear what's at stake. If the U.S. or Israel so much as drops a bomb on one of its reactors or its military training camps, Iran will shut down Gulf oil exports by launching a barrage of Chinese Silkworm missiles on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Arab oil facilities. In the worst case scenario, seventeen million barrels of oil would come off world markets.

SNIP

In either case, whether at $200 or $300, Bush does not want to be the President who leaves the White House on a mule-drawn cart. But Iran's blackmail is not just about oil. The Iranians truly believe they have us hostage in Iraq — our supply lines, the acquiescence of the Shi'a in the occupation. It would all change in an instant, though, especially if we were to borrow Iraq to attack Iran. The way Fars put it: "In Iraq, fighters would rise up in solidarity with each other and begin ... making the Tet Offensive in 1968 Vietnam."

If this all sounds very alarming, Iran meant it to, and it seems to be working. On Tuesday Bush was talking about the prospect of new sanctions rather than attacking.

Which leaves Israel. Are the Israelis, who have a lot more on their minds than the price of gas in the United States, going to launch a pre-emptive attack? One hard and fast rule in the Middle East is never rule out Israel's readiness to turn the table over. But an Israeli hawk on Iran, with close ties to Israel's Ministry of Defense, told me to forget about it. "There's not a chance Israel will do anything. Maybe there's a window after the American elections and the new President but even that's doubtful. Washington does not have the stomach for another war."

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1813706,00.html

[madokie]

1. I agree

a couple strategically sunk ships and the gulf is cut off.

[L. Coyote]

2. A couple of sunken aircraft carriers, more likely.

If Israel attacks Iran, the US military may not come home.

[KharmaTrain]

3. And Quote The Cheney..."Duh"

The more oil that stays in the ground or can't be produced, the higher the price goes and the fatter a lot of portfolios go. This has been this regime's game, in cohoots with the Saudis and others in the region, from day one.

Be assured that one of the attacks our "leaders" have are hitting the main Iranian refineries...in the Basra area and Korg Island. Yep...the Iranians won't put this out of commission, our own military will and the speculators will go wild.

The thing that's made me suspicious of Israeli intentions here has been that there's been too much sabre rattling on the leadership front about an attack on Iran. In the past, a mission of such important nature would be a deep secret and you wouldn't hear about the intentions until the Phantoms were on their way home. IMHO, much of the sabre rattling has been internal politics as Olmert and Netenyahu play a game of "who has the bigger balls".

I still think this regime will attack Iran...it's drawn to this notion like a moth to a flame. Be it to help Gramps if his campaign compleltely implodes or as some new mess after the elections to "punish" us for not electing Gramps. This regime has nothing to lose and the clock is running on their ability to fleece and profit.