Predictions of crop loss due to excessive rain levels from a 2002 article.

[Skidmore]

I found this article online and thought it was interesting in light of the current floods and national economic situation. Amazing, it has not been a topic of discussion in the media.


http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20021022cropdamage.html

October 28, 2002 - (date of web publication)


COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS FUTURE CROP LOSS DUE TO POTENTIAL INCREASE IN EXTREME RAIN EVENTS OVER NEXT CENTURY




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An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events has been observed over the last 100 years in the United States. Global climate models project that similar trends may continue and even strengthen over the coming decades, due to climate change. Now, a study using computer climate and crop model simulations predicts that U.S. agricultural production losses due to excess rainfall may double in the next 30 years, resulting in an estimated $3 billion per year in damages.

Cynthia Rosenzweig and Francesco Tubiello, researchers at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, and the other authors of this study, found that current assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have not accounted for the negative impacts on crops from increased precipitation and floods. In an effort to close this information gap, the researchers modified an existing crop computer model to simulate the extent to which excess soil moisture from heavy rain might damage crop plants.

"The impacts of excess soil moisture due to increased precipitation need to be taken into account because of associated crop losses and potential financial damages," Rosenzweig said.


The researchers argue that while droughts receive the most attention when it comes to assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, excess precipitation should also be a major concern. The 1993 U.S. Midwest floods, for example, caused about $6 to 8 billion in damages to farmers, accounting for roughly half of the total overall losses from the flood, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Overall precipitation and extreme rain events are projected to increase in the future because of stronger water cycle dynamics associated with global warming....more

[HereSince1628]

1. Everyone seems worried about field corn. Many of the mint fields are ruined

here in Wisconsin. You can also expect more expensive chewing gum. A large fraction of the US mint oil production starts in the low lying muck fields of Wisconsin. Iowa, Wisconsin and Indiana also produce a large part of the nation's popcorn and large amounts of the canned sweet corn.

The scope of the impact of the flooding is going to be impressive.

[Skidmore]

2. There are so many crops to be affected.

Soybeans. Sunflowers--we have people who grow sunflowers for oil. Locally, sorghum to produce molasses. Oats.



Farmers' markets will be affected for local produce. Hardly anyone I know has a decent garden this year.

[Fovea]

3. The Hadley Group says much the same

In Western Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, they forecast a 42% increase in annual precipitation by 2050, most occurring in extreme precip events.

I have been trying for years now to get the local levee districts to listen, and the ACE to react to this information.

The other side of this coin is that higher static air temps will increase the rate of evaporation.

This should have the effect of creating a more oxysol growing medium, requiring constant addition of organics.

Also, we need to start creating local water entrapment and aquiculture programs to minimize mosquito borne disease.

[newfie11]

4. Here in the SW Nebraska panhandle we have had years of drought

This year because of all the rain we actually are doing well so far. There are some areas with flooded fields but nothing like eastern NE. Now barring hail, tornadoes, etc we might actually get a corn and wheat crop.