Bolton: Israel Will Attack Iran After U.S. Election But Before Inauguration

[kpete]

I think if they (Israel) are to do anything, the most likely period is after our elections and before the inauguration of the next President. I don’t think they will do anything before our election because they don’t want to affect it. And they’d have to make a judgment whether to go during the remainder of President Bush’s term in office or wait for his successor.

Bolton gamed out the fallout from an attack on Iran. He claimed that Iran’s options to retaliate after being attacked are actually “less broad than people think.” He suggested that Iran would not want to escalate a conflict because 1) it still needs to export oil, 2) it would worry about “an even greater response” from Israel, 3) and it would worry about the U.S.’s response.

Bolton then concluded that Arab states would be excited if the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran:

I don’t think you’d hear the Arab states say this publicly, but they would be delighted if the United States or Israel destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons capability.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/22/bolton-arabs-delighted/

[Raven]

1. Are our vaunted elected officials (like Congress) going to stop this?

Or are we all going to sit around and then be surprised. Time to get off our asses.

[sakabatou]

2. "I will make sure of it," he said, smirking.

[kestrel91316]

3. I predicted Bush would attack Iran between the election and the

inauguration - to poison the well and put the Obama administration at a disadvantage from the get-go. That his proxies (the Israelis) will do it instead of his own military is beside the point. He will use them in order to bring about what he has always wanted: Armageddon. And then cast them aside.

Pope John Paul II was SO correct in his assessment of Bush (I heard he became convinced he was the Antichrist after meeting him).

[Faygo Kid]

7. Link to the John Paul observation?

I haven't heard that one before, but don't doubt its veracity.

[BeHereNow]

23. It was a blip in the New Catholic Times- May 18 2003

NCT made mention of an article by Madsen.
Here is a link-
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0MKY/is_9_27/ai_108881880

There were much DU discussion about it as I recall.
We all agreed with the pope.

BHN

[kestrel91316]

36. It's one of those things I heard about but I am quite sure he never

made an official statement. It's talked about.

[BeHereNow]

21. I remember that... That the pope thought that was a possibility.

I think we had several threads about it at the time.

And yes, your prediction was on the money.
Unfortunately.

BHN

[JackRiddler]

4. It's a variation on the Somalia action of December 1992...

Except, instead of a small booby-trap "humanitarian" intervention, the new office-holder is left with World War III.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. BINGO

[newmajority]

31. That's EXACTLY what it is

Chimpy's entire pResidency has been an attempt to "do better" than his daddy.

Invade Iraq and "finish the job" - check (if getting rid of Saddam was "the job")

Bankrupt the treasury and make our friends rich - check

Get a bunch of "cool" new weapons programs funded and created - check

Leave the new guy a "going away present" - check pending.

Just like clockwork (assuming your clock is a broken down piece of crap you got in the .99 bin at Goodwill.)

[JackRiddler]

34. You're mistaken if you think this is due to psychological reasons.

The Bush Jr. regime picked up the policies where Bush Sr. left off.

Jr. started with almost the exact same crew in the same positions doing the same things.

[lutefisk]

5. Good point in one of the responses to the thinkprogress report

In the responses to Bolton's comments, ralph the wonder llama pointed out:

"On the one hand, Bolt-on says we have to bomb Iran because they’re such a threat. But then, as a means of making an attack more palatable to those war-weary among us, he assures us that Iran would not want to escalate a conflict that was inflicted upon them.

Make sense to anybody?

If Iran would be reluctant to escalate a conflict when they are attacked, why in god’s name would they seek to threaten us with a first strike?"

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/22/bolton-arabs-delighted/

[Poll_Blind]

44. Ha! Great point!

PB

[Faygo Kid]

6. Put Bolton on the front lines. Kristol, Limbaugh, Hannity, too.

These guys just love war. They just love killing other people, or having other people die for the causes they espouse, while they reap untold $$$$. I don't care if they are too old. Let them climb into an unarmored Humvee and drive around Iraq. The world would be a far better place without the cowardly SOBs.

[Taverner]

8. He's going to need to ride those missles Slim Pickens style to be on the front lines

[Faygo Kid]

9. Great pic! And I forgot - put Holy Joe on that missile, too.

It will be crowded, but what a boon to humanity.

[jespwrs]

10. Bolton is one of the people in this world whose ass I'd like to kick most.

I'd love to walk up behind him and give him a good solid kick in the ass and a pie in the face.










































































Obviously this will not happen, but one can dream.

[jespwrs]

11. Sorry

I don't know how that post ended up being so spread out. oops.

[lyonn]

12. The American people have been asleep at the wheel for years

Sorry Bolton, fool us for 8 years doesn't guarantee we will not see an attack on Iran by Israel as being backed by the U.S. The question is how do we stop Bush/Israel? How nice it would be if those in Congress used their powers to tell bush to shut up and go sit down now or we will get rid of your a***. Papers could be filed at anytime if bush will not agree to keep negotiations going until the next president is in office. There is no way that the world could be convinced that Iran is an Imminent Threat in the short span of 6 months, sheesh....

Bolton, Wolfowitz, et. al., are still living in the era of the mentally sleeping public. 8 years of war is enough. How many countries has Iran attacked in recent history? Consider other Arab countries that have performed terrorist attackers. We did not bomb them into infinity, so why Iran? OK, we want their oil too, silly me.

Edit: Faygokid had it right in post #6, front lines for those creatures, put their a** where their mouth is (? funny image).

[leveymg]

13. Israel won't do anything the US military would oppose. This isn't going to happen

Wishful thinking on Bolton's part.

[Tarc]

15. Well, they call the shots in this relationship unfortunately, not the US

[leveymg]

17. Don't be naive. Israel will do nothing the US military opposes

The Joint Chiefs of Staff call the shots about who starts wars that might involve U.S. forces. Not the Knesset.

[Tarc]

49. Want naivety? Look in the mirror, boy

Via AIPAC and others, Israel exerts enormous undue pressure on our foreign policy.

[lyonn]

22. Does our military make this decision? Thought it was bush.... nt

[leveymg]

28. Not since 2005, when Bush was removed in place.

See, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/2/18/10343/6778

[lyonn]

40. Interesting article Levymg, but there are no assurances

Remember that saying, best laid plans, and all that? Still it's a plan and/or law. Our laws are even in question anymore. The replies to your article were also informative. Sure didn't know about the chain of command issue.

Edit: Who the hell is really running this show? My gawd, will this bush nightmare ever stop?

[leveymg]

48. The Pentagon brass and IC senior officials have been runnng the show

for several years. Bush and Cheney are just window-dressing at this point.

This national nighmare will end on 01/20/2009.

[LeftishBrit]

26. Agree!

[tabasco]

14. Just like Somalia.

GHW Bush left a nice steaming pile for Clinton.

But, hey, they're buddies now, so who am I to question their wisdom?

[Gman]

16. Thanks for the tipoff, John

you stupid bastard.

While Bolton's arguments about why Iran's options are "less broad" come from a perspective that Iran would react rationally, he completely discounts the primary, Political Science/Force in International Politics 101 notion that perceived irrationality makes a nation's leader powerful.

He also ignores the fact that 1) Iran has enough money that they don't have to export oil for many years and they will do just fine, 2) Israel's sorry performance in Lebanon doesn't make Iran afraid of anything from Israel. However, #3 is the one thing none of us are sure about, the US response. We all know these bastards are unquestionably insane enough to hit Iran with nuclear weapons (talk about perceived irrationality...) Fortunately, deterrence from Russia who is a strong trade partner with Iran and from China who needs Iranian oil likely takes the nuclear option off the table for the US.

One thing is crystal clear now. The plan that will be set in motion sometime between now and the end of the year is for Israel to hit Iran. Then the US waits for Iran to retaliate and then the US jumps in and hits Iran with everything up to and including possible nuclear weapons if deterrence doesn't work because they truly are irrational and insane.

I think the most rational and smartest way for Iran to react to an Israeli attack is to go straight to the UN and build a consensus against the US and Israel up to and including sanctions against both.

Another random thought on Russia and China deterrence against the US... if it doesn't work and if either of these do strike the US with a limited nuclear strike, it would be fantastic for Bushco business. The neocons really want a strike on the US. They've said as much while lamenting that 9/11 was a one-time event. It would completely destroy the world economy, but then again, they have all the money already and would make even more. So you just really can't say what they will or will not do.

-----------on edit------------------

Something about hitting "submit" that makes you review your post completely differently than when you first proof-read it.

[lyonn]

19. Whew, that was a powerful theory.

Could be close enough to the real truth to be scary.

[leveymg]

24. Interesting theory, but t assumes that nobody has the ability to learn from recent mistakes, and

that somehow rationality is the monopoly of the merchant of death types.

It's an inviting world view that appeals to the cynic in all of us, I must admit, but not a particularly accurate. I just can't see either the American or Israeli generals doing this. It's not in their self-interest, and they do have veto power over the decision to launch attacks, particularly with nuclear weapons.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

18. Followed immediately by, "We must support our ally.."

"Vital National Interests", donchya know.

[LeftishBrit]

25. Since when has Bolton been the supreme ruler of Israel?

I doubt that even stupid Olmert would obey Bolton's wishes on anything. Nor are any Israelis likely to be telling him their country's state secrets; so he isn't going to be party to their own plans.

And which part of 'You're fired!' didn't Bolton understand, anyway?

[JackRiddler]

27. Iran has a big airforce... I've been thinking...

In practice, this might turn out to be another case of 1 Israeli plane downed (by accident) for 84 Syrian MiGs, like in the 1980s Lebanon conflict. Or not.

The idea of this strike is a huge risk for the Israelis, they'll be 900 miles away from their bases and require multiple re-fuelings.

Israel probably cannot burn the Iranian radar coverage with certainty.

This strike is almost certainly not going to happen without electronic and counter-C3 measures from US forces based in Iraq, and the back-up of the US allowing Israeli jets to land at US airstrips, if necessary.

[leveymg]

30. Iran has little in the way of combat aircraft, but they have a lot of shipping missiles

That's where the action would be.

[JackRiddler]

32. Hmmm, their logo does not inspire confidence!

The wiki article on the Iranian AF is interesting in this case as a battlefield of differing perceptions and propaganda statements, so that it's been locked and large numbers of planes are listed as "alleged purchases." Do they or don't they have these planes?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Force

You may remember the start of the Gulf War in 1991 when 120 Iraqi AF pilots defected to Iran with their planes, which Iran kept.

[leveymg]

47. They learned from Iraq's experience in Desert Storm that jets are just targets

Iran's military leadership is competent and innovative. They know not to put a lot of money into systems the US and Israel will defeat easily, like fighters with second-rate avionics, ECMs, AAMs and no AWACS.

[daleo]

29. Bolton should be in prison, for whipping up war fever for the last illegal war

Not whipping up war fever for a fresh illegal war.

[Rex]

33. Remember these are the same people who thought we could build

military bases in Saudi Arabia and pissed off a certain CIA operative, remember the rich fella that Bush supposedly wants to catch so bad. You know the one, not Saddam. That other guy, who we had soooo much intel on yet couldn't stop him or catch him.

Stupid people run our country, evil warmongering assholes.

[JackRiddler]

35. How are they stupid (tactically) if all goes according to their plans?

[spanone]

37. arab states would be 'excited'....'delighted' what a fucking warmongering maniac

[Tutonic]

38. Look the other way!

This clown helped craft the lies that got us into Iraq and now he wants to walk us down another narrow path to Iran? My dog Samson could provide more direction and truth than shit flying from Bolton's ass! If he said it, it must be a lie.

[Disturbed]

41. John Bolton is a warmongering loon.

China & Russia will now allow a Military attack on Iran. This is more insane talk. Bolton needs to be in a Mental Institution for the criminally insane.

[Tutonic]

46. Hey! You need to write a post on this!

Russia and China take down of US Military.

[MadMaddie]

39. Kinda of a huge risk by Israel.....Israel would be assuming that

after the Innauguration Obama will jump right in to defend them? Just sayin..

[Festivito]

42. It'll keep us from worrying about pesky machine RECOUNTS.

Hey, we're at war and all you're concerned about are a few votes here and there!

It's not a few votes.

We're in a major war here. Why do you guys hate America?

It's always screwed up.

Both parties are the same.

Both sides cheat.

...

:eyes:

[babylonsister]

43. Someone needs to put a muzzle on this asshole. nt

[Paula Sims]

45. If Obama wins

I bet you the strikes will start Jan 18, 2009 and Chimpy will have signed on to them.