New Mexico looks like a blowout (much like Virgina) in the senate

[Hawaii Hiker]

"The New Mexico Senate race is becoming a complete blowout. Tom Udall is nearly 30 points ahead of Steve Pearce, who is much too conservative for the state as a whole. Since To's cousin, Mark Udall is way ahead in Colorado, we are very likely to have a set of first cousins in the Senate in January"..

New Mexico Tom Udall 58% Steve Pearce 30% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen

www.electoral-vote.com

Much like Virginia, NM looks like another landslide..


:woohoo: :woohoo:

[Bob Dobbs]

1. After Mark Udall's vote on FISA

he's a much less exciting candidate to me.

[SteppingRazor]

2. New Hampshire's also a blowout, and Colorado looks like a pretty sure thing too.

Now the Dems just gotta figure out how to win in Oregon, Alaska, Maine, Minnesota and one other (Mississippi?) and they've got 60 seats in the Senate.

[Bucky]

4. Minnesota worries me. I don't think Al Franken can close this.

A professional comedian is, almost by definition, a flawed candidate. And Norm Coleman is as slippery as they come.

Oregon & Maine are better bets, frankly.

[SteppingRazor]

8. I think, of those four second tier races, Oregon and Alaska are the most likely.

Franken worries me more and more, though the polls are slowly angling in his direction. I think it's really just a question of when he peaks, and whether it will be too early or too late. In Alaska, given the average length of your typical grand jury investigation, Ted Stevens should be getting indicted just in time for the November election. He's fucked. And I see Oregon going the same way as Rhode Island in 2006, with Gordon Smith playing the role of Lincoln Chafee -- sure, he's a nice guy and all, but why vote for a wannabe Democrat when you can have the real thing?

Maine worries me. Allen can't seem to raise his profile there. Democratic gains in polling have been coming, but slow as molasses. And Mississippi, although Musgrove is actually ahead in some polls there (!) could be a flash in the pan. That said, if Obama makes a serious play there, registering as much of the black population as he can (37% of the state is black) and pulling in at least 20 or 25 percent of the white vote, Musgrove may be able to ride those coattails to a win. We'll see.

[Hawaii Hiker]

10. I'm concerned about MN to...I'm just hoping Franken doesn't go into

some comedy schtick during their debates, & tries to make a joke out of everything...That race will probably be close though..

[NewJeffCT]

5. New Hampshire's a blowout?

I've seen polls that have us ahead, but fairly close. But, I definitely don't want Warner being picked as VP because he is so far ahead in the polls...

Even picking up NM, VA, CO and NH would be nice. It's a good enough margin where we can safely tell Lieberman to piss off.

I think OR and AK are possible as well, and I wouldn't count out Franken just yet... ME could be tough, though.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Shaheen's got a double-digit lead over an incumbent senator:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate-354.html

Yeah, it's a blowout. The other three states that we're talking about as fairly easy wins (NM, CO and VA) may have even better polling, but all of them are for open seats. The fact that Shaheen is crushing an incumbent this badly puts NH, in my opinion, in the same category as the other three. YVMV, of course.

[NewJeffCT]

7. that's great to hear

that she's got a big lead in NH... and, didn't Sununu win last time around only because the GOP pulled a lot of funny stuff on election day?

[SteppingRazor]

9. Yes. The phone bank scandal. When all's said and done, it probably won him the election.

A lot of folks in the "Live Free or Die" state look at Sununu's win as illegitimate, and the sort of independent New Hampsherites who loathe corrupt government and have a libertarian streak are:

a) The people who are most-positive that Sununu stole the election, and

b) The people who would otherwise be most likely to vote for a Republican (other than registered GOP voters, of course)

All of which means, of course, that Sununu is screwed, especially in a state with as high an independent voting base as NH.

[SpiralHawk]

3. Pearce is no conservative. He's a republicon.

While republicons like to toss the word 'conservative' around to describe themselves, they are in fact radical borrow-and-spend splurgers who have borrowed-and-spent the USA deep deep deep into the craphole of debt -- while meanwhile trashing the environment for short-term profits for a few fat-cat republicon cronies, when the environment should (with any measure of sanity) have actually been conserved.