Ready or Not, Bird Flu Is Coming to America - Officials Advise Stocking Up on Provisions

[NNN0LHI]

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/AvianFlu/story?id=1716820

By BRIAN ROSS
March 13, 2006

In a remarkable speech over the weekend, Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt recommended that Americans start storing canned tuna and powdered milk under their beds as the prospect of a deadly bird flu outbreak approaches the United States.

Ready or not, here it comes.

It is being spread much faster than first predicted from one wild flock of birds to another, an airborne delivery system that no government can stop.

[virtualobserver]

1. 2006?

[Individualist]

6. rofl

It's certainly coming slowly isn't it?

:rofl:
:rofl:

[truedelphi]

2. There is a total cure for any type of flu.

Costs about $ 1.50 per dose. One dose needed per flu victim. Doesn't need to be taken until you feel sick.

Don't let the aurthorities know about it though. I am waiting for the flu epidemic to get rid of all the "straights" in our society.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

8. Oh yeah

and they can make a remedy ready to rock and roll within thirty days of an outbreak so it matches the flu exactly.

[truedelphi]

9. Nope the standard dose works fine on any flu.

Talk to your favorite raver - they probably already use it as a rememdy for those days they don't wanna miss a rave on account of flu.

[Occulus]

35. Question: why don't you just tell us and be done with it?

I don't go to raves, know no ravers, and thus will never have a clue what you mean.

Damn, really, I mean, what the frak is up with the mysterious obscurity? Is it pixie dust or something?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

37. Oh,I know how the remedies are produced

really neat how Immuni----the standard remedy from Europe--is done every year. And you are right, it does work fine. But our resident expert in these matters here at the Foundation was addressing the specific question--what if a totally new and virulent strain came about? Her answer was that a remedy would be available in 30 days--very comforting, I think.

[TheFriendlyAnarchist]

46. Ecstacy?

Heh, I could've been hit by a truck and not felt it, let alone a case of the flu.

[TZ]

27. Umm this vaccinologist/biologist calls bullshit on that claim

But go ahead and take it..you might find you gotten rid of with all the other straights.

[truedelphi]

32. Thank you for that. And you got your M.D. at which institution?? n/t

[TZ]

48. I have Masters equivalency in work experience

including work (with published data) at NIH on malaria vaccines, and now work at a immunological biotech that does among other things..influenza research.
I do know.
BTW..here it is:
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/103/48/18243?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=1&author1=Wu%2CYimin&andorexacttitle=and&andorexacttitleabs=and&andorexactfulltext=and&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=relevance&resourcetype=HWCIT

[truedelphi]

62. You will surely dismiss this as anecdotal but the last time I was positive abt

Vaccines was back when I stood in line for my swine flu vaccine.

A torrent of pain descended on my arm at the moment of injection. That pain stayed with me for six months.

That vaccines final result: I had Guillaume Barre syndrome that lasted fifteen months, reducing the mobility of my left arm.

I watch a friend go in for her "normal" flu shot every year, and within seventy two hours she is as sick as a dog for two to three weeks. Can't talk her out of it, though.

Another close friend has narcolepsy which began for her 36 hours within receiving a series of vaccines.

My Marin County physician would not let me have a Hepatitis vaccine shot some fifteen years ago - basing his conclusion on my experiences with the swine flu.

Now that Michael Belkin discusses his daughter's death from the hep shot, I am extremely grateful for that Marin Doctor's stopping me from having that shot.
(Belkin - a world class statistician - has run the numbers on the hepatitis shot and the numbers are persuasive about how more middle income babies are injured from the vaccine than would ever be even in contact with the disease. If nothing else, the manufacturer's and industry should revamp their notions on which babies get these shots!)

[TZ]

79. You kn ow

I have had every vaccine I can name, my friend has even had experimental vaccines and neither of us has suffered anything worse than a sore arm.
Nor has anyone else I've known. Some people have bad reactions to vaccines but that has NOTHING TO DO with the vaccine, more to do with their own personal physiology.
And I seriously doubt the connection between narcolepsy and vaccines..having been tested for narcolepsy myself..thats DEFINITELY genetic..They even know the gene associated with it.
And Hepetitus is a VERY horrendous disease and actually much more common than most people believe.Hep A is easily gotten from FOOD for god's sake..and will NEVER go away.
As for children getting vaccines..the children have to have their immune system stimulated in order to get antibodies..the overprotectiveness that people have started showing is leading to more immune problems like allergies, asthma and things like that because the system has not properly learned what is friend and what is foe.
I'm sure you won't believe me because most people think their experiences reflect the real reactions when in fact they don't.

[eShirl]

45. yeah, it's called DEATH

[Deja Q]

58. That sounds kinky.

:hide:

[grasswire]

3. oboy

"All the birds involved in it would be destroyed, and the area would be isolated and quarantined," said Richard Lobb of the National Chicken Council. "It would very much like a sort of military operation if it came to that."


And toward the end of the article it talks about quarantine to house for all cats.

[undergroundpanther]

39. FUCK NO

Quaretine ME with my cats than. Fuckers.My cats are my best buddies.I will fight to keep them with me.

[grasswire]

64. that's what it meant!

Quarantine your cats in your house. No cats outside.

[undergroundpanther]

65. oh,I thoght they were

gonna take my cats away.They already stay in my house.They don't go outside unless I got them leashed and harnessed.They're leash trained.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I have a CD of a talk on bird flu that was given three years ago

Information is still well worth reviewing.

Basically, the key is to build up your immune system, and to take simple precautions such as using hand sanitizer, etc.

[TZ]

28. for most flus, yes

But if H5N1 mutates,its gonna take a lot more than handwashing...because people will have NO immunity to it.
Picture what Small Pox did to a naive population in the New World.

[uppityperson]

5. Is "bird flu" what the powdered milk and tuna under bed was for? I forgot that.

Don't forget: UNDER the bed. In the pantry or the closet or next to the bed just won't work.

That aside, why posting this now?

[smirkymonkey]

71. And make sure you wrap it in Duct Tape and plastic sheeting!

that's a crucial point that hasn't been made in this thread yet... :)

[momster]

84. Home Depot Needs the Money

Duct tape and plastic wrap...right this way.

[madeline_con]

7. Will it arrive by land, sea or air?

I thought birds with the flu couldn't fly.

[Mojorabbit]

11. They can

Ducks can be carriers but not get sick. It is still peculating in a boatload of countries but has not yet gone pandemic and I hope it never does. I am still watching it's progress daily. Low simmer for now.
and on edit
here is an article from today in the bbc
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7457054.stm

[Deja Q]

56. One if by land, and two if by sea... these aren't British redbirds, by any chance?

A pity Paul Revere never got a chance to do it three times if by air...

[Ian David]

10. March 13, 2006.

Ayup.

Any day now.

Any day.

:sarcasm:



See also:

VaporScare

A threat or conspiracy that either turns out to be bogus, or simply fails to materialize.
The administration's claim that terrorists would attack us using bomb-laden sparrows turned out to be just another VaporScare.
by Ian Jan 2, 2005
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=VaporScare

[readmoreoften]

14. Bomb-laden sparrows? Didn't Cheney just pull a vaporscare with China drilling for oil in Key West?

I'm sure Rumsfeld tried to make bird flu happen since his company owns the right to Tamiflu.

[Hannah Bell]

12. get some 75# bags of rice, too. they're running out, you know.

is it my imagination, or is the prevalence of this kind of message from mainstream sources somewhat unprecedented?

[NeedleCast]

74. It's only unprecedented in the number of people

who will buy into it. If the media thinks they can make a story out of it, they will. Especially if said story will induce panic in the nervous-nelly segment of the population who are terrified of their own shadows.

[Cleita]

13. And why would bird flu affect the milk supply or the tuna supply for that

matter? Wouldn't it just affect chickens and eggs?

[uppityperson]

17. Spread the powdered milk on the ground. When birds come, hit with cans of tuna.

Those products are good for filling up the space under your bed and preventing dust bunnies also.

[Cleita]

23. *smile*

:rofl:

[Indenturedebtor]

76. BWAHAHAHAHAHHAH!

Personally I don't even give a shit anymore. Every day it's another falling sky.

To hell with it. Would someone just kill me already? Do you really have to make my dollar worthless and take away my high fructose corn syrup first?

[momster]

85. Practice Daily

Underhand, overhand, or you could just exercise Second Amendment rights and do a Dick Cheney on 'em.

[uppityperson]

15. OMG!!! BIRD FLU!

[jkshaw]

16. I don't understand Mike Leavitt's

urging to stock up on food. Chicken perhaps, But milk? He's used that term before, storing canned goods and dried milk "under the bed."

[Mojorabbit]

18. Maybe he is thinking

of families with children?

[jkshaw]

19. For pete's sake, this

story is dated March of 2006. What's it doing as breaking news? No wonder I heard Mike Leavitt's "under the bed" suggestion!

[dddem]

53. I think it's because he's assuming

that your pantry is already filled with plastic sheeting and duct tape.

[DearAbby]

55. Your gonna be so sick

you can't pull yourself outta bed, only reach under it for something to eat. guess I am gonna get four mini refrigerators on on each corner of the bed, with stairs created by the cases of food, so I can get into it. I can only eat so much tuna for crissakes.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

20. Uh oh

I've been keeping the chickens under the bed, and the tuna and powdered milk in the closet.

I don't feel so good ................

[Individualist]

21. Imagine the dust bunnies under his bed along with all that food he's stored for two years!

[WhiteTara]

22. another of their "terrer terrer terrer"

All the time "terrer". Just another chance to disrupt the food supply.

[itsrobert]

24. Yup, some people in DHS and DOD were really spinning this a couple years ago

They had plans for quarantine camps and looking for "contractors" to give billion dollar contracts. Just a big scam by BushCO.

[Mojorabbit]

33. No

it is a real threat. The medical community has been gearing up for it all over the world. So far it is a simmer in multiple countries all over the world but has not gone pandemic which I thank the universe for because we are no where prepared in the least for something like that.

[TK421]

25. This person can help us through a bird flu outbreak !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B492yJzIog

[jwirr]

26. Our local clinics suggested stocking up to one months supplies

a long time ago. They are also promising that local authorities will deliver medications where needed. I am a bit worried about the last part. What if they cannot? They were not talking about bird flu - just said pandemic.

[TZ]

29. Take this seriously but don't panic

The issue is that H5N1 is getting stronger in Asia..more human cases and more fatalities. It has *yet* to spread from person to person so there is that. But one should neither live in total fear nor totally ignore this threat.
But the recommendations given by Mike Leavitt are a bit...bizarre.

[mrs_p]

31. another influenza researcher?

thanks for calming the masses...

turtlensue is right about this not being an immediate threat. at the risk of getting too technical or too simple, we (humans) do not usually have the right respiratory cell surface receptors for this particular influenza strain. the people who have been infected actually do have compatible receptors, but most people don't, so the virus isn't spreading among humans. A LOT has to happen before H5N1 and other highly pathological avian influenza viruses jump from birds to humans. i'm not saying that it could not happen (has happened in the past), but i think that everyone should be more concerned about circulating human influenza viruses and be sure to get their flu shot every year.

[TZ]

54. Not quite influenza...

I've been working in immunology for a while though..(rodent/simian pathologies, malaria vaccines, and now, monoclonal antibodies to human diseases)
Welcome to DU btw, we always need more scientific expertise here!:hi:

[Indenturedebtor]

77. The only time I get the flu is when I get a flu shot

No thanks :hi:

[TZ]

80. Don't assume you won't get sick in the future

Thats like saying I've never gotten HIV yet, so I don't need to take precautions.

[Indenturedebtor]

81. I know it, but the vaccine kicks my ass. And I've only gotten it when I get thevaccine

I think our flu vaccine sucks. I've gotten my Hep vaccines, etc though. I'm not against vaccines but the Flu one I swear takes me a step backwards.

[mrs_p]

87. umm...

pathological above should read pathogenic on my post... that's what happens when i don't go into the lab on saturdays. :blush:

[Mojorabbit]

34. It hs spread person to person

in a few cases but luckily has dead ended there. Hopefully it will not gain the ability to do more.

[mrs_p]

49. from the literature

i don't recall any cases of human to human H5N1 spread. all cases were from poultry and the infected had the requisite alpha-2,3 linked receptors in their respiratory tracts. if you know otherwise, can you send me the link (as influenza is the subject of my phd research and i don't want to be wrong in front of my committee) :)

[Mojorabbit]

61. Sure

I will look it up this afternoon. I have followed it's progress for several years and there have been cases of human to human, the latest in Pakistan. I will post links later.
on edit here is one case but there are more.
There was a case in Vietnam, and I believe Turkey also but here is this one and I am only on my first cup of coffee and that is the best I remember off the top of my head. I will look for more later
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2008_04_03/en/index.html

[mrs_p]

69. thanks!

[Mojorabbit]

89. you are most welcome

Here are a few more probables that I found on a short search but there are more.
2003-2004:One instance of possible, limited, human-to-human spread of H5N1 virus is believed to have occurred in Thailand.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm

While there has been some human-to-human spread of H5N1, it has been limited, inefficient and unsustained. For example, in 2004 in Thailand, probable human-to-human spread in a family resulting from prolonged and very close contact between an ill child and her mother was reported.

In June 2006, WHO reported evidence of human-to-human spread in Indonesia. In this situation, 8 people in one family were infected. The first family member is thought to have become ill through contact with infected poultry. This person then infected six family members. One of those six people (a child) then infected another family member (his father). No further spread outside of the exposed family was documented or suspected.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

The researchers also aimed their statistical transmission-assessment technology at another large avian-flu cluster in eastern Turkey that in 2006 infected eight people, four of whom died. In this case, the researchers did not find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission, most likely due to a lack of sufficient data. "There probably was person-to-person spread there as well but we couldn't get all the information we needed for the analysis," Yang said.
http://www.fhcrc.org/about/ne/news/2007/08/28/avian_flu.html


on edit
This was the family I was thinking of in Vietnam and here is one article I found on it. The time frame between the members becoming ill was indicative of human to human. There was more on this later but I can't find it just now.

The World Health Organization expressed concern this week that the first case of human to human transmission of H5N1 avian influenza may have occurred. Officials are investigating the case of two sisters in Vietnam who died of the disease and who may have contracted it from their brother.

Bob Dietz, WHO's spokesman in Vietnam, said: "There was a considerable delay between the infection of the man and his two sisters, and this anomaly has put a question mark over how they were infected." One of the two sisters is not known to have been in contact with infected poultry, but was in contact with their brother shortly before being taken ill. He died the day after they were taken to hospital, but was cremated without samples being taken from him.
http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/328/7435/308


The Pakistani case mentioned in my other post was chilling because one of the brothers of the deceased who lived in New York flew home for the funerals and on return had symptoms which he reported to his family doc who called the cdc in. I believe his son also had symptoms. They tested negative but it could happen that quick. If the strain that killed his brothers had mutated enough to be THE strain, everyone on the plane who dispersed across the country would have been infected and we would have been in a mess. I hope this helps some.




:hi:

[GreenPartyVoter]

44. Did he also mention the duct tape and plastic sheeting? LOL

[dflprincess]

30. Not too much tuna -

you could get mercury poisoning.

[McCamy Taylor]

36. In 2004, my family got the nastiest flu in Amsterdam after exposure to birds in an outdoor cafe.

The incubation was longer than regular flu and since the Netherlands had had a bird flu outbreak the year before, I have wondered since then if we got bird flu. We all got well but it took us twice as long as regular flu and there were more GI symptoms to start with.

I read somewhere that bird flu has a longer incubation period and more GI symptoms. It was nasty but not fatal and no one caught it from us once we got back in the states. That also sounds like bird flu since people don't give it to people.

Stay away from live birds is the main thing. In the orient everyone buys a live bird in the market and has it slaughtered fresh. Here we buy dead birds in the freezer. We don't have much contact with live birds, so I can not see bird flu being as much of a threat since it is mainly transmitted from birds.

[mrs_p]

51. most likely

not H5N1 and most likely something you ate. (though, yes, avian influenzas affect birds' GI tract as that is where the alpha-2,3 linked receptors are for this these strains)

[Duer 157099]

38. Sheeeeit, I'm still waiting for Y2K apocalypse

I think they are all behind schedule.

[XemaSab]

86. Hence my "Y2BirdFlu" stash...

:P

[Quantess]

40. Get out the duct tape!

And put some cans of tuna under your bed.

[jumptheshadow]

41. Actually, they're still very concerned about it

There hasn't been much news, but the disease is incubating and mutating. The specialists who are watching it are deeply concerned.

I asked a leading expert recently about the percentage of probability that there will be a pandemic and he said, "Don't bet against the odds."

If it ever shows up here, look for some RADICAL lifestyle changes until they can develop a vaccine that addresses the specific strain of flu.

[NNN0LHI]

42. The disease has been incubating and mutating for nearly 50 years

You would almost think that if it had the capability to become something more serious it would have by now.

Don

[mrs_p]

50. there are many influenza

strains and they go way, way back - it is not just one virus that keeps mutating... it is sort of complicated to discuss on this board (e.g., epidemic vs. pandemic flu, avian vs. human viruses), but here are some links that may help clarify:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/index.htm

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/general/historicaloverview.html

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

[NNN0LHI]

59. I should have been clearer I meant specifically H5N1

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_03_02/en/index.html

2 March 2004

Avian influenza A(H5N1)- update 31: Situation (poultry) in Asia: need for a long-term response, comparison with previous outbreaks

During last week’s emergency meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, officials from FAO, OIE, and WHO drew attention to several unique features of the current outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Asia, in particular its geographical distribution, rate of spread and severity of which are unprecedented.

Prospects for rapid control are inconsistent with worldwide experience, over more than four decades, with previous outbreaks, which have all been much smaller in scope and inherently less challenging. Even in countries with good surveillance, adequate resources, and geographically limited outbreaks, control has often taken up to two years. For these reasons and others, WHO has cautioned against assumptions that the outbreaks can be controlled in the immediate future.

WHO has described the serious public health implications of these outbreaks in a previous update.

Up to the end of 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered a rare disease. Since 1959, only 21 Outbreaks had been reported worldwide. The majority occurred in Europe and the Americas. Of the total, only five resulted in significant spread to numerous farms, and only one was associated with spread to other countries.

Since mid-December 2003, eight Asian countries have confirmed outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by the H5N1 strain. Most of these countries are experiencing outbreaks of this disease for the first time in their histories. In several, outbreaks have been detected in virtually every part of the country

[Mojorabbit]

67. There is way way more than

21 outbreaks now and it has mutated into several clades. There have been human to human cases too but it still has not managed to go pandemic and I hope that mutation that would allow it to does not happen cause we are no where near prepared.

[mrs_p]

52. who was the leading expert?

i'm in this field, so i am actually really interested.

[old mark]

43. First, you get a cat.

Feed it the tuna and milk made from the powder, then let it go hungry for a few days and let it loose on the birds.

I am dazzled by the sparkling logic of your plan, great doctor.

How much are we taxpayers paying this guy?

mark

PS: I already have tuna, but won't use powdered milk.

[uppityperson]

66. What! You have a problem milking dessicated cows?

Just think of all the hard work getting that powdered milk out of those dried cows.

[hootinholler]

47. HUGH outbreak in Fl!11!11!!!!

-Hoot

[DearAbby]

57. Good Gawd

They had the good taste to drop dead in geometrical designs!

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

[RebelOne]

70. Birds are dropping dead in the Florida Keys.

www.wftv.com/news/16740937/detail.html

[marions ghost]

60. already had it in the spring

no tuna or anything helped....

It was vicious.

[malaise]

63. Expect more frightening scenarios to be presented

2006 was merely Congressional elections.

[Mojorabbit]

68. This is a worldwide concern

and govts all over the planet have been preparing for the worst just in case.

[siligut]

72. Some statistics

It would seem that cases of avian flu in humans has decreased, this from the WHO website. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2008_06_19/en/index.html

115 cases in 2006, 88 cases in 2007 and so far, 34 cases in 2008. Most of the cases are in Indonesia and Thailand.

Also, Mike Leavitt is Mormon, they always keep Jell-O, powdered milk and tuna under their beds, waiting for doomsday, have to keep this stuff in perspective. Bird flu seems to be a pet of Leavitt’s too.

There has been human-to-human transmission, but the virulence is very weakened and no deaths have resulted from this secondary transmission.

[Mojorabbit]

92. I don't think it has weakened

the case fatality rate is still seventy or eighty percent and the latest human to human cases in pakistan killed two or three brothers.
My personal opinion on the reason why the numbers are down is that China has clamped down on reporting of cases and has threatened to jail journalists who report them and Indonesia is doing the same thing due to fears of decreased tourism. North Korea has poultry dropping dead with it and if there are any human cases we will never hear of them. It is still percolating in a lot of countries.

[siligut]

95. I wasn’t clear

I meant that the virus is weakened in the secondary transmission, from human to human. Severe symptoms and death from primary contact with bird waste are much more likely than avian flu contracted from human to human contact.

I did see the instance you posted where the father seemed to have contracted the flu from a secondary infection; an infected child from a family where the brother (being the primary source) worked with birds directly. The biggest concern has been a strain of bird flu that would transmit from human to human and not lose virulence.

I spoke with a city planner last Christmas about this very thing. There has been much effort and thought put into the orderly and effective control of any pandemic that might occur in the US. However, I still don’t doubt the B* administration’s ability to induce a cloud of fear, and Avian flu could be used as a tool.

I won’t speculate too much about what is reported, and what isn’t. While it is possible, probable, that countries are trying to protect their financial interests, we really have no way of knowing.

[NeedleCast]

73. You missed the Bird Flu scare by two years

We've moved on to exciting, new rare diseases to be terrified of.

Timeline:

2006: Bird Flu
2005: Flu vaccine shortage
2004: SARS (OMG!)
2003: West Nile Virus

[XemaSab]

88. Hey, West Nile is series! So far, here in California ONE PERSON has gotten sick in 2008!

It's SERIES I tell you! :o

I mean, if you were that one person in California who's gotten sick this year, how would YOU feel to hear West Nile made light of?!?!?!?

http://www.westnile.ca.gov/

[NeedleCast]

94. Don't know what it was like in CA but here in DC

The West Nile scare was just off the charts. They had pesticide trucks going up and down the streets at night spraying God knows what into the air. I'm a night owl and would sit out on my balcony at night watching these tanker trucks cruise down the street blasting some sort of aerosol into the air and thinking that whatever they were spraying was probably a lot more likely to make me sick than West Nile was.

[jakem]

75. Speaking as someone who has the potential of being killed off by the normal flu-

i have a genetic/metabolic pattern that gives me a pretty decent chance of kicking it with the regular flu. guess what. the government is not going to hand you magic flu pills to save your ass.

they cant even come up with the right vaccine for the plain only flu that comes around every year! (not that i don't get the vaccine, just that i am not counting on it!)

so store your tuna if you want, but you might want to take basic precautions like living well, and washing your hands!

when the shit hits the fan, ecstasy and vaccines both will not save you! not to sound too gloomy i hope, but it is, i think, the reality-

[Indenturedebtor]

78. Yeah but I'd rather take the X

Alot more fun that way!

Bring out yah dead!

Bring out yah dead!

[XemaSab]

82. Faster than expected?

:shrug:

:popcorn:

[NeedleCast]

83. You bird flu is stuck in customs

[knitter4democracy]

90. Duh. Most doctors I know have been worried for years.

It's just a matter of time for it to evolve into something that will swamp and overwhelm our broken medical system. Now, if we actually had people running our government who actually gave a damn and wanted to do their jobs (*cough* not Republicans *cough*), we might get the national health care system we need in place to deal with it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

91. Hmm it will come, but faster than expected?

We have been expected this since oh 1996

First WHO directives.

Oh never mind...

[Mojorabbit]

93. I think it will come in it's

own time. Mother nature does not keep our schedules. I am glad they are trying to track it and I think the fact they have thrown a tamiflu blanket over communities where cases have occured have helped to stamp it out so far.