Will the Dow Jones industrial average dip or fall below 10,000 before the end of July?

[BuyingThyme]

Ten-year trend:



http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=10yr&Submit1=Refresh

[Warpy]

1. It certainly will in August

as the first jumbo loans start to reset and institutions feel a glimmer of what's really ahead.

[MercutioATC]

6. Agreed. July may be early.

Definitely by September 1.

[freesqueeze]

2. I think a better question is...

will it stay there?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. Beats me. But, things don't look good so I just got out of the market.

Sometimes, being on the sidelines and just watching the "players" gamble is a good place to be.

On the whole, I'd rather regret not making money than regret losing it.

[Warpy]

4. My income is interest and dividends

so I'm staying put. It's largely unconnected with the face price of the stock.

What it is dependent upon is the overall health of the economy, and this economy is getting sicker every minute that conservatives are in charge.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. Fortunately, less than 10% of our income is dependent on the market.

And, even that portion won't be effected by the market's doings.

[trof]

13. Same here, but I'm conflicted.

I have some GM and Ford preferred shares.
They pay a nice interest rate, but the $25 par value stocks are way below where I bought them at around $20 per share..
But they're still paying interest in the 8-10% range.

If both companies manage to turn the corner and eventually redeem these high interest debt instruments at par, I'll make out like a bandit.

If not...?
Damn.

[Doctor_J]

5. Go over to LBN to the daily stock market thread and join the pool

everyone's playing!

[BuyingThyme]

7. Okay.

What's LBN?

[eleny]

9. The Latest Breaking News Forum here at DU

There's a daily stock market thread over there.

[BuyingThyme]

10. Oh, I knew that.

I was just trying to look stupid.

[eleny]

12. I'm not touching that one!!!

[jpcrecom]

11. probably not

That would be a pretty huge drop in one month. That's over 10%. Not common, especially given the dive that we've already seen.

As an aside, I know that the press and most people cite "The Dow" when talking about stocks, but nobody in the investment community really cares about the Dow (except due to the underlying individual stocks held within it)

The real benchmark that everyone uses is the S&P 500 (which was at 1,350 on inauguration day in '01 and is at 1,250 now).

It's a really bad market right now. And it's not going to get much better any time soon. Selfishly, I shorted the S%P in October, and the hedge has at least kept my overall portfolio steady during these hard times.

[CatholicEdHead]

14. Not by July 31

But by the end of the year for sure, probably Labor Day to Halloween.

[hogwyld]

15. Not only will it drop to 10,000 by the end of July

I anticipate that once that milestone is passed, it will continue to plummet south of 5,000 by the end of the year. I also see inflation spiraling out of control. We are in for a real bumpy ride for many years to come.