Could the problem with energy be that we have reached Peak Oil?

[Subdivisions]

Why is it so hard to accept?

Google it: Peak Oil

[kestrel91316]

1. Why? In a word, HUBRIS.

[Prefer]

2. Why didn't you accept it in 1973 or again in 1977?

Peak Oil is just a big convenient way to dismiss the whole thing. Don;t look behind the curtain, focus on the Great Wizard!

[robertpaulsen]

12. Can you give me the names of whoever said world oil production would peak in 1973 or 1977?

During that period, I am only aware of the predictions of M. King Hubbert, who predicted a peak in US oil production sometime between 1966 and 1972 (it peaked in December 1970) and predicted a peak in world oil production between 1995 and now. Peak Oil, just so we've got our terms clear, refers to world oil production peaking.

I don't even need links, if you could just give me some names, that'll do.

[tech3149]

3. I think if you consume 10x the fossil fuels as the rest of the world

You might be the first to feel the sting when the cost's go up. Funny thing is that I don't see long lines at the gas station or people being "browned out" due to a lack of coal or natural gas to run the generating stations.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. Trust me:

It's speculation. Congress HAS to step in.

[plcdude]

6. I agree

and is it not obvious that one of the best ways to hurt the US and ultimately to force them out of Iraq and the Middle East is to run up the cost of their most desired and needed products?

[Javaman]

8. And your proof is? nt

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

13. Well...uhh...

One is no shortages of fuel, just the inflated prices. The other is this: http://www.worldnewstrust.com/wnt-video-gallery/Oil.html

[NickB79]

20. Nope, no fuel shortages whatsoever

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x160719

India - Crude shock: Fuel rationing may have to be formalised

"Rationing of petrol and diesel, already a de facto reality in many of the city’s petrol pumps, may well become a way of life if the authorities get emboldened to come clean on the prevailing fuel situation, which has been plaguing the city for a month now. Pune Petrol Dealers’ Association president Babasaheb Dhumal said that such a situation may come to pass soon as there is already a 25 per cent shortfall of petrol supplies while diesel supplies are down 50 per cent."

And that's just one of over 25 nations that have reported on fuel shortages, long lines, and rationing so far THIS YEAR. Don't believe me? Go spend a bit more time on the Environment/Energy board here.

[Hannah Bell]

46. The article says in various places that various actors/suppliers

aren't buying because the price is too high.

<<Petrol supplies already down 25%, diesel 50% as oil firms have cut purchases in response to rising global crude prices<<

<<Dhumal, who along with other petrol dealers met the district collector, was told that the oil companies are not buying the required stock. “We were told by senior officers that they cannot force the oil companies to buy as prices are rising,” he pointed out.>>


These actors says it's not the case:

<<However, the oil marketing companies (OMCs) claim that they have been providing the usual stock.... the shortage may be due to some transport problems,” said an IOC officer.>>


Then there's the hint of hoarding, as happened in the phony "global rice crisis" earlier this year:

<<On the other hand, an officer of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) said that since the petrol price hike, the company has observed a 10 per cent rise in demand.>>


In short, the article gives no definitive reason for the shortage. But it doesn't appear to be from any lack of oil on the market.

US consumption dropped 811,000 bpd in april:

"U.S. oil demand in April was... down 811,000 bpd from a year earlier, putting petroleum consumption at the lowest level for any April month in six years... 3.9 percent less from 20.579 million bpd a year earlier."

The total increase in WORLD demand from 2006-2007 was 990,000 bpd.

India consumes ~2,700,000 bpd. In other words, the drop in US consumption = 30% of total Indian consumption. India consumes 3.3% of world supply.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_table_of_world_oil_consumption_barrels_2008.pdf

[robertpaulsen]

15. Trust me - we've been riding a plateau since 2005.

Or don't trust me. Just read the math, post 56:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3057911#3059922

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Yes, there is speculation. Yes, there is corruption. No, we can't trust OPEC. No, we can't trust the Big Oil Companies. All of these issues have risen from a foundation of world oil production flatlining as world oil demand increases exponentially. Dealing with the side issues instead of the root of the problem may give us a temporary price drop, yes. That would be like putting a band-aid on a tumor. And that tumor is about to metastasize.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

18. I don't doubt...

That there are supply problems in the offing. That said, there are far too many inconsistancies to say it is just supply. Right now, we need some breathing room to get our oil dependency ducks in a row. Addressing rampant speculation and the 2500 or so traders in the "Dark Markets", where there is no regulation whatsoever, can give us that time.

As you might imagine, I am not an apocalyptic follower of Jerome a' Paris, Kos Kredentials or not.

Also, read down. There is a telling little missive in there, just a brief appearence, by "Peak Oil Proponent T. Boone Pickens". He made $2.5 Billion betting long on oil in 2005. T. Boone is the master at "Pissing on your boot and telling you it's raining".

Yes, it's serious. Yes, it demands our full attention, day-certain soonest. But what we are seeing now? A lot of people making up for the money they lost in the housing market. And being very, very shady to do so.

[robertpaulsen]

33. Sure. I'm very much in favor of regulation.

But unless it's done within the context of a comprehensive Apollo Moon style initiative like the one Dennis Kucinich advocates, we're putting the cart before the horse.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=266x2266

We've also got to put a clause in there to mandate the transparency of oil companies. Otherwise, every dollar that drops due to legislation restricting rampant speculation will be made up by the oil companies cooking their books so that you and me make up the difference at the pump.

I wish T. Boone Pickens would act like real Peak Oil Proponent and explain what Peak Oil is to the masses in his latest TV infomercials advocating we switch from oil to wind energy. If he were half as blunt with Peak Oil as he was with his Swift Boat Shit, he might make an impact. Right now, others in the Peak Oil community aren't so sure if he's heading in the right direction. From Energy Bulletin:

Please help people understand that the Pickens Plan is NOT a solution to our energy problems. It is a "keep using oil, everything is fine" plan. Sigh. We're screwed.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45825

[depakid]

48. The two are not mutually exclusive

[charlie]

5. Could be

In saner times we could be more certain. But how can you extract the possible effects of peak oil out of the melange of financial insanity going on right now? The dollar is buckling, investors are chasing commodities to make up for losses in the housing bubble, the Fed is raining troughs of money on their heads to stave off their ruin, Dubya's incessant sabre rattling has the futures market anticipating $2-300bbl oil, speculators have run off the leash... who can tell how much is due to peak and how much is Wall Street madness?

[Subdivisions]

7. "But how can you extract the possible effects of peak oil

out of the melange of financial insanity going on right now?"

Great question! Because all this "financial insanity" (and more appriately economic insanity, considering the finacial insanity includes the mortgage meltdown, which is not related to peak oil) has long been predicated by Peak Oil.

Peak Oil causes economic insanity. And a bunch of other nasty stuff too. Which is mostly already happening. Even casual study of Peak Oil bears out the consequences of a world that has surpassed the point of maximum oil production. Remember, we're not talking about running out of oil. That will never happen. We're talking about LIMITS TO GROWTH as energy stocks continue to decline versus demand.

[Hannah Bell]

10. in 1999, oil prices were at 30-yr lows, even in non-inflation-adjusted

dollars.

i guess nobody understood about peak oil then, they just figured it out when housing went bust.

[charlie]

11. I'm not talking about anything predicated on peak oil

I'm talking about the serial dotcom-housing bubbles that cratered portfolios and sent investors in search of new bubbles to cover losses, in commodities like oil, with the Fed greasing the skids with credit lubricant. A foreign occupation that has hobbled already reduced extraction in one of the largest oil producers. Brinksmanship with another major oil country.

There is no doubt a significant part of the cost of oil is due to dollar devaluation. Another is the flood of money roiling the commodities markets. The question is, how much is peak oil and how much is from other causes? There may actually be a short term oil bubble happening right now and the price may drop appreciably before ascending again.

Peak Oil may be here. But the insane track we've been on for years is exacerbating the daylights out of its effects.

[Javaman]

9. You're question isn't ready for the mainstream GD.

Although I believe it, many many many people here on DU still would rather have someone to blame other then ourselves. It allows them to sleep better at night.

[Terry in Austin]

14. Even here, many are still in the denial stage

They're quick to blame Big Corp/Govt for playing greedy games with the gasoline that they "need" and act so entitled to.

But they don't stop to think for a minute that we have willingly bought into the whole oil-driven consumer-industrial high, because it's easy and it has a lot of perks. The big catch: there was only enough oil for a few years. It was a Faustian bargain, and now the devil's claiming his due.

The way we live is the result of choices we make. Of course, after denial, http://www.comics.com/wash/opus/archive/opus-20080629.html">there's still the rest to work through. But here's the story in its blunt form:

"Don't like paying a lot for gas? Stop needing it!"

[taterguy]

16. Oh for fuck's sake

Instead of linking to Salon where people have to view an ad why not just do this?

Ponderous, fucking ponderous

http://www.comics.com/wash/opus/archive/opus-20080629.html

[Terry in Austin]

19. Cool - thanks!

Edited for less ponderosity.

[taterguy]

24. You're welcome

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

17. Yeah, whatever. Google who created the "peak oil" mania/mantra.

Hopefully, you will be investigative enough to reveal that those INSISTING UPON OIL DEPENDENCE are the ones promoting the FEAR of 'peak oil'.

As if those fuckers aren't engaging in E-NUFF barbaric economic oppression, all ready!!!!

The answer to the so-called 'peak oil' frenzy is to develop alternative sources. The technology to completely GET OFF OF OIL is available. We just have to utilize it.

Moreover, there was a world BEFORE oil.

[NickB79]

22. "There was a world before oil"

Yes there was. It consisted of about 1 billion people worldwide, horse-drawn buggies, no plastic anything, little communication between long distances, and sail-propelled ships. Oh yeah, and it also had widespread famines and plagues, with the average man living to 50 if he were lucky.

Oh boy, what a great world that sure was! :sarcasm:

As to your first statement: "Google who created the "peak oil" mania/mantra", does it have to be pointed out to you that M. King Hubbard, the man who hypothesized the concept of Peak Oil in the 1960's (and was roundly criticized for it at the time by fellow petrochemists and geologists) was proven RIGHT on his prediction of US peak oil production in 1970?

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

30. I suppose it defies YOU that he was a hired hand!

If you can't imagine a world without oil, hello 'armageddon' according to you. :rofl:

Only those IMPOSING dependency on oil push that mantra and it's simply ridiculous. We CAN LIVE without it. WE CAN create products WITHOUT OIL.

I'm sick to shit of people ACTING LIKE we are unable to create any and/or ALL our human 'conveniences' without oil.

But,...carry on. It's your trip.

[NickB79]

36. A "hired hand" with a PhD and 20 years of experience working for Shell Oil?

Per Wiki:

"He attended the University of Chicago, where he received his B.S. in 1926, his M.S. in 1928, and his Ph.D in 1937, studying geology, mathematics, and physics. He worked as an assistant geologist for the Amerada Petroleum Company for two years while pursuing his Ph.D. He joined the Shell Oil Company in 1943, retiring from that firm in 1964. After he retired from Shell, he became a senior research geophysicist for the United States Geological Survey until his retirement in 1976. He also held positions as a professor of geology and geophysics at Stanford University from 1963 to 1968, and as a professor at UC Berkeley from 1973 to 1976."

That's a hell of a resume for a "hired hand", wouldn't you say? Oh, and this "hired hand" went on to see his then-controversial theory of US peak oil production verified in 1970.

"We CAN LIVE without it. WE CAN create products WITHOUT OIL."

Of course we as a species can live without oil; I never said we couldn't. Given a plot of land, some seeds, some wood and some mud, you could grow a garden, make a wooden spear for hunting, and live in a mud hut. People have done it for hundreds of thousands of years. Does that mean a mud hut is equivalent to, say, a 3000-sq. ft home with central air and heat and a fully stocked fridge?

What will die with the onset of Peak Oil is a decent standard of living.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

39. Yes! A hired hand by Shell. These multi-nationals have been pushing dependency,...

,...and paying propagandists for EVER!

Your comparisons are simply,...silly!

A decent standard of living can be accomplished without oil.

WHY you are DETERMINED to suggest otherwise is completely beyond me. But, it's your trip, not mine.

[NickB79]

40. Paying propagandists?

Did Shell and the other multi-nationals also pay to have US oil production artificially peak in 1970? Is that part of the conspiracy theory too? You know, the one that involves every oil company on earth, heads of state for the past 50 years, and powerful yet mysterious figures shrouded in cigar smoke?

Why push a theory that would make your business obsolete and encourage the development of alternative energy? For the past 30 years, oil companies have been publicly stating that there's plenty of oil, we have enough for decades, it's not running out, etc. Yet at the same time they're paying Hubbard to convince everyone that oil is a finite resource? If Hubbard's "propaganda" was taken to heart in the 70's, alternatives to oil would have been funded and the oil companies would have lost billions.

Sorry, all these conspiracy theories give me a headache. I need to put on my :tinfoilhat:

Crap, I lost mine. Can I borrow one of yours?

[rucky]

25. i'm so confused. n/t

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

21. No.

Because if we reached peak oil in, say, 2000, then gas production would be the same as it was in 1992.

The price of gas is a racket.

[NickB79]

23. Except that we've on a plateau for the past 3 years

No pretty bell curves just yet. When we go off that plateau, then we'll see where gas prices truly go.

[Subdivisions]

26. And what's even worse is the longer we make that plateau in

a last ditch effort to increase total world production, the steeper it'll be when that plateau gives way than it would have otherwise been had we taken heed and engaged mitigation.

Too late now.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

28. So we've reached Plateau Oil?

Sorry, they are pretty bell curves. That's the whole point behind the term "Peak Oil."

[NickB79]

32. If you look at the US peak, it wasn't a pretty bell curve either

Only Hubbard's first theory, in 1956, posited a GENERALIZED bell curve. You have to curve-fit the data points to see a clear bell curve. With US production, there were numerous bumps here and there in the past 100 years as production ramped up, and then declined. For example, while we peaked in 1970, there was a substantial upswing in production in the early 80's as Alaskan oil came online. Other nations have had even more chaotic peaks, with extended production followed by a drop-off.

[Terry in Austin]

27. Huh?

Sounds like you've got some finding out to do, bro.

Peak was actually mid to late 2005. Yes, gas price is a racket. No, that doesn't change the geology: oil production can no longer increase. Now we deal with it.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

29. Great.

So if we reached peak oil in 2005, we'd be at 2002 levels of production.

:thumbsup:

[Terry in Austin]

37. You're going to have to explain that

The "if's" and "would be's" don't really enter into it. Geology doesn't negotiate.

Current levels of production are 2008 levels, obviously, and it's flat-out: about 84.5 million bbl per day. Little, if any, spare capacity exists. The Saudis are still claiming they could pump more if they wanted to, but the pretense is starting to wear thin.

[dysfunctional press]

31. that is exactly the problem.

unfortunately there are none so blind as those who will not see anything except a fiendish conspiracy by evil speculators...:crazy:

[Imagevision]

34. I believe this is all about secring drilling rights in Alasks etc. before Bush leaves office and

only then will we see the gas prices get back down to high $2.90's - $3.09 per gallon. As the price of gas approaches $5.00 per gallon , the American people will demand to drill wherever it takes to simply have gas to get to work.

[IDemo]

35. This is not a question of either/or Peak Oil or speculation

There is plenty of reason to believe we are at, or even past, the peak of world oil production. Meaning -- the current flow rate of high quality low sulphur oil, about 86 million barrels per day, will not be sustained for long. It is not a question of 'running out' of oil as so many detractors seem to think, but of maintaining the production volume.

That given, I feel that the primary reason for the prices we are seeing today is the result of speculation.

Ghawar Is Dying

Kuwait Oil Field, World's Second Largest, 'Exhausted'

Cantarell, The Third Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying

Daqing Output (world's fourth largest field) Falls 4% as Reserves Dwindle

[trof]

43. And...running out of 'CHEAP' oil.

Much of future supply is buried in shale, sand, and deep ocean.
And it's a lot more expensive to get at.

[SoCalDem]

38. Not necessarily.. There are no lines..no signs saying "No Gas Today"

no closed down gas stations....no fill-ups on odd-even days (like we all did in the 70's)

This "crisis" is deliberate.

Will we actually really run out of oil? probably....soon? maybe.

This particular event has been choreographed to gin up the populace into compliance with the crowning glory achievement of *²'s final days... A lovely parting gift, if you will, to his Oil Buddies...

the "traders" who used to make exorbitant amounts of cash by speculating on other things, have seen those things 'go away", so they are now concentrating on oil.....and we do nothing to stop them...maybe we cannot, legally..but they will do it for as long as they possibly can

[NickB79]

41. The US is not the entire world. See post #20

All the things you listed ARE in existence, but in poorer countries around the world. India, Nepal, Ghana, Haiti, etc. Americans just have their blinders on to what's happening around them; so long as they don't see it on their block or on their way to work, it doesn't really exist.

[SoCalDem]

42. In extremely poor, non-oil-producing countries

shortages are probably a consequence of the cost, not the availability. Our refineries are running at near-capacity, just as they were when oil was 1.09 a gallon..

The PRICE is what's being manipulated..not the quantity..

I DO think that eventually , we will run out, and that China & India have put pressure on the market, BUT there is plenty of $150 a barrel oil...just as there was plenty of $45 a barrel oil.. the only diffenerce is that the speculators have added THEIR $100 a barrel surcharge into the mix..

[robertpaulsen]

44. I think your $100 a barrel speculator surcharge is a tad overstated.

I recommend you read Dave Cohen's analysis of the situation. With the proper legislation to rein in non-commercial speculators, we can reduce the price of oil to $110 to $115. But I don't think we'll ever see oil under $100 a barrel again.

Beware those evil speculators
by Dave Cohen
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45834

[SoCalDem]

45. A guy on CNBC, last week said it was above $75 a barrel

..I guesstimated that he was low-balling it :evilgrin:

[Hannah Bell]

47. Consumption in "poorer countries" is up.

Consumption in "richer countries" (the US & much of Europe) is flat or down, & has been for several years.

africa: up 4.6%.
bangladesh: up 3.5%
philippines: up 5.3%
etc. etc.

the biggest jump in consumption last year was in chile: not exactly a poor country, but not exactly a rich one either: up 29%.


http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/oil_table_of_world_oil_consumption_barrels_2008.pdf