Ok. I think I know why oil has been dropping the last two days.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

The diplomatic news regarding Iran. Someone in DC leaked the preliminary news to "just the right folks" and they started getting out, just enough to avoid a stampede and queering their deal.

All that stuff about the market reacting to Dear Leader's press conference was all smoke and mirrors, provided pre-fab to our anacephalic press and MSM, who swallowed it whole.

Watch the oil market tomorrow. They will be jumping out of windows. Watch the foods markets tomorrow as well. I will bet a lot of that money will be going there, running up food prices.

[TexasObserver]

1. we talked about this a little yesterday

Yesterday morning you posted this in a thread you started:

"Across the board, energy and foodstuffs prices are declining. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why this is occurring?"

I said:

"US is sending someone to attend a nuclear conference with Iran. That seems to indicate less sabre rattling, and less of a chance for war with Iran. That's my theory, although I haven't heard anyone else give such an opinion yet."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3628010&mesg_id=3628025

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. Yeah, but...

This US Mission in Iran is something new and far more market-potent. News about this was released just tonight.

In any case, I forgot about your post. Duh. It's hell getting old. ;-)

[TexasObserver]

3. cool

I agree with your conclusions.

[lurky]

4. I was bugging a friend about this yesterday.

She is a finance-type for a Wall Street company. She said the reason oil prices are going down is that the economy is so incredibly bad that nobody is buying oil anymore and supplies are going up.

[chemp]

5. I predicted this last month

Gas prices will continue to decline until the election. They showed how high they can get, now the reduction to just under $3. then in November, BANG! $5.
Just like in 2006. Peaked around $3. Dropped to just over $2.25. Then in November it did not look back.

[pampango]

6. Partially right. Gas did peak at $3 in August and decline to $2.19 in early November,

but it went down to $2.11 by the end of January. You are right about the decline leading up to the election, but not about the "(t)hen in November it did not look back" part. Gas prices usually peak in late summer and bottom in winter.

In 2004, the last presidential election year, by contrast gas prices peaked in May at $2.02, declined to $1.81 by mid September, then increased to $1.98 by the election. (Poor timing on conspirators I suppose. They should have delayed that increase until the middle of November.) After the election prices went down, not up, to $1.75 in January, the usual winter bottom in gas prices.

The only recent year in which gas prices really spiked then declined by election day was in 2005 when it peaked at $3.16 in early September and hit $2.41 in the first week of November, but there wasn't a national election that year. They continued down to bottom at $2.23 in February.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/pswrgvwall.xls