Charlie Cook: GOP Is Losing Ground

[babylonsister]

GOP Is Losing Ground
Republicans no longer have a realistic chance of holding their own in this year's Senate contests.

by Charlie Cook

Sat. Jul 19, 2008


One of the less pleasant aspects of writing a political column when one party is having a particularly grim year is that the story gets so repetitive. Some years, the Democrats are in the political toilet. This year, the Republicans are in that unenviable position.

In the presidential race, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is behind but still very competitive. For the GOP, that is the bright spot on the horizon. In the House and Senate contests, the debate is about how many seats the Republicans will lose; they no longer have a realistic chance of holding their own.

So, even though a nonpartisan analyst naturally desires to be balanced, in a year like this I can place very little good news on the Republican side of the scale.

In the Senate races, the outlook for the GOP is bad and getting worse. Few Republicans think that they have any real hope of holding retiring Sen. John Warner's seat in Virginia. Former Gov. Mark Warner, who is a Democrat, appears to have a lock on that contest, which The Cook Political Report rates as "Likely Democratic." In New Mexico, where Republican Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is the underdog, trailing Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in a contest that we moved this week from the "Toss-Up" column to "Leans Democratic."

In Oregon, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith faces an increasingly difficult challenge from Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. The Cook Political Report this week shifted that race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up." The GOP's problem isn't so much that Merkley is an especially formidable challenger; it's just that the political climate has effectively erased the natural advantages that Smith brings to the race.

Smith's contest joins five others involving Republican-held seats that we had already rated as "Toss-Ups"--those of incumbents Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and appointed Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, as well as the open seat in Colorado where Wayne Allard is retiring. Sununu's situation is looking increasingly ominous; Coleman's stock has risen, although not quite enough to warrant a move to the "Leans Republican" category.

more...

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080716_3253.php

[Mz Pip]

1. Ted Stevens has to go.

The guy is a fruit bat. If I had to pick just one of those to lose it would be Ted.

Cornyn, Inhofe and Roberts may be wishful thinking at this point, but by November who knows?

[babylonsister]

2. I'd add McConnell to that list, too. nt

[Arctic Dave]

3. Not just Ted. Don and Lisa should get the boot also.

[Happyhippychick]

4. Hmm....let's see...what did I do with that....oh, right. Here it is:

:nopity:

(did I get that right?)

[babylonsister]

6. Perfect! That's how I feel, too. nt

[Speck Tater]

5. In Oregon the Gordon Smith (R) ads I've seen on TV

don't even mention his party affiliation. Instead, they focus on how cooperatively he's been working with Barack Obama in the Senate.

That really says something when a Republican's ads avoid the word "Republican" and try to tie him to a Democrat instead.

[OregonBlue]

7. When will Merkely come out with an ad that says just that!! I'm waiting.

[TomInTib]

8. Yeah, and no more of that "Democrat Party" jive, either.

The water gets a little hot, and the Chickenshit Bastards tuck their collective tail.

[Pastiche423]

12. I watched that ad

where gordo says he enjoys working across the aisle, right after he voted for FISA. But the ad that makes me lol, is the one where he is talking about Merkley raising taxes. This coming from the asshole that voted for *'s tax cuts for the rich, every single time.

[gratuitous]

13. Say Gordo, if I want a Democrat in the Senate

I'll vote for Merkley, who is a Democrat more than just four months out of his six year term.

[Vinca]

9. I can't wait for election night. It's not just Obama winning,

it's the overthrowing of some of the batshit crazy Republicans. If I hadn't gone on the wagon I'd be stocking up on good champagne.

[NNN0LHI]

10. I will settle for a couple of Miller Lights and be happy

[Cha]

11. Good..as it should be.

Wayne Allard's says he's retiring 'cause of his pledge to term limits..

"As time passed, some one-time leaders of the movement, including Rep. Tom Tancredo, and others who signed pledges, such as former Rep. Scott McInnis, abandoned their promises in the name of continuing public service. Others, such as former Rep. Bob Schaffer, lived up to their pledge and went home."

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