Leading Index in the U.S. Decreased in June, Sigaling Growth Will Slow

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from Bloomberg:



Leading Indicators Index in U.S. Fell 0.1% in June (Update2)

By Courtney Schlisserman

July 21 (Bloomberg) -- The index of leading U.S. economic indicators fell in June for a second month, signaling growth will probably resume slowing after a second quarter rebound.

The Conference Board's gauge declined 0.1 percent, after a revised 0.2 percent drop in May, a report from the New York- based research group showed today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.

The housing slump, now in its third year, higher food and energy prices and an increase in firings are likely to hurt growth. A slump in consumer spending in the second half of the year, as the boost from the government's tax rebates fades, threatens to bring the expansion to an end.

``We may be seeing weakness in coming quarters as well,'' said Zach Pandl, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``We're in a very strange period where we're teetering between negative and positive growth periods.''

The six-month annualized change for the index decreased at a 1.7 percent. A decline in the index of around 4 percent to 4.5 percent at an annual pace over six months is one signal a recession is imminent, according to the Conference Board. The gauge met that requirement in January, when it dropped at a 4.7 percent pace. ......(more)

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