Dolly is now a Category 1 hurricane....

[Aviation Pro]

...it should make landfall within the next 24 hours. Track guidance shows landfall in Southern Texas but that may change as the storm moves closer to land:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408W5+gif/151745W_sm.gif

Here's the current satellite imagery:



Finally, the storm surge forecast has been posted. Here's the graphic:

[alfredo]

1. It's going to be a very busy season it appears.

[Aviation Pro]

3. Yep, here's the next one....

And its imagery:

[alfredo]

15. like a fuckin parade

[Baclava]

12. Told ya - cactus storm

The desert needs rain too.

[alfredo]

14. So the flowers will bloom.

[Breeze54]

2. A Cat 1 is usually relatively low winds and a lot of rain...

people near the ocean probably should be on the look out though, for flooding.

[Aviation Pro]

4. Everyone concentrates on wind speed....

...part of our culture of bigger, faster, stronger. The real killer is the storm surge and the water (levees are weakened by the wind and destroyed by the water). The other killer is after the leading edge passes and the twisted atmosphere causes tornadoes.

[Breeze54]

10. Yep and a Cat 1 is pretty small for a hurricane. n/t

[arcadian]

5. I knew cloning was a baaaaaaaad idea.

[angrycarpenter]

6. I am on the Fla gulf coast

I have been through several. This year is different. If one is coming this way I am gone.

I am going run away like a chicken with my head held high.

[islandmkl]

8. yeah...i waited out Charlie...it was supposed to hit my island at the mouth of Tampa Bay...

but turned inland south a ways...

after seeing Katrina, I don't need to feed my 'adventurous' side...

i was foolish and got by...no sense trying again...

[ccharles000]

7. I hope no one gets hurt.

[Firespirit]

9. Please don't take this as fearmongering

This storm has a tight circulation, fairly small core, and if it resolves an issue with an incomplete eyewall, I think it is a candidate for unpredicted rapid strengthening. If it does this, it would be tonight, or early this morning before daybreak, the most conducive time of day for intensification. This hypothetical strengthening would shift the track slightly north, closer to Corpus, but it would also mean 6-10 hours of time to evacuate. Think Charley 2004, though not as strong. It's not super likely, but there are factors that could cause it.

In any case, the NHC is forecasting landfall at 80 knots, which is 92 mph. Category 2 begins at 96 mph. For all intents and purposes, it'll be a Cat 2 landfall, and there is a decent chance it will become one in reality. Rapid intensification would not be required to tip it from the NHC forecast to Cat 2.

I just think that folks in the path should not take this lightly, and if they're staying, to prepare for a MAJOR hurricane. If it strengthens as forecast, then no harm no foul; if it blows up, you're still prepared. This storm makes me uneasy and I will be glad when it is gone. Just stay safe.

[Aviation Pro]

17. There's an eddy of cold water to the west of the expected track...

...depending on forward movement and eyewall generation that may slow things down a bit. Like Wilma, thank goodness this thing didn't linger in the loop current that it just went through or it may have intensified to a major hurricane. Wilma hit south Florida as a Cat 3 and had the forward motion been 10 knots instead of 20 knots it would have been a 4 or 5. The damage Wilma caused was bad enough.

[Ilsa]

11. I'm in the blue, tropical storm warning, area, north of the hurricane warning area..

We've been getting very brief and light rains. At noon today the air was still, like it had been sucked out. Now we're getting occasional gusts. We're expecting 1-2 inches of rain overnight and tomorrow. It's now overcast and gray outside and the temp has dropped from 95 to 90 already.

The expecation is that there will be some property loss.

[Aviation Pro]

18. Here's the current radar showing the leading edge....

This link takes you to the Base reflectivety which is 248 NM from the radar site:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Ilsa]

20. Thanks. We use this site also. Not much else has developed

where we are. Nice sunset. Should get T-storms tonight.

[malaise]

13. Rain and sea surge should be the biggest problem here

Stay safe DUers.

[joe_sixpack]

16. Now that they've named it "Dolly"...

I'll be surprised if it doesn't grow into a big one, ... or maybe even a pair of big ones.

[Breeze54]

19. Well; Hello Dolly! It's so nice to have you back where you belong ...

:D