Key House Races Shift, and it’s in the Democrats’ Favor

[babylonsister]

Key House Races Shift, and it’s in the Democrats’ Favor
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff


When CQ Politics rated the congressional races last fall, we said: “the Democrats are in a strong position to expand their congressional majorities” in the 2008 elections.

It’s gotten even better for them since then.

CQ Politics today is changing the race ratings in 14 congressional districts in 10 states to reflect changing political circumstances that mean brighter prospects for the Democrats, who are expected to augment their 236-199 majority in the U.S. House in the November elections.

Twelve of the 14 race rating changes favor the Democrats, compared to two that favor Republicans, who are trying to limit their losses this year after suffering a net loss of 30 House seats in the 2006 election.

CQ Politics bases its race ratings changes on a variety of factors, including polling and fundraising figures, demographic and political data and conversations with political analysts and party officials. The race ratings are better described as snapshots than as election predictions, and they are subject to change at any time.

We divide our ratings into four categories of competitiveness. A race described as “No Clear Favorite” is basically a toss-up, with neither party having an edge. A “Leans Democratic” or “Leans Republican” rating means that the named party has an edge, but the contest is highly competitive. A “Democrat Favored” or “Republican Favored” race is mildly competitive, though the leading party’s advantage is not so overwhelming as to rule out the possibility of an upset. The vast majority of congressional races are in the uncompetitive “Safe” category.

Since November, the number of districts rated as “Safe Republican” has dropped by 17. The number of “Safe Democratic” districts has increased by one.

more...

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002925691