Do you expect the stock market to crash within the...

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

...next six months?

Note: For the purposes of this poll let's define "crash" as a rapid decline which sees the Dow drop below 6000.

--------------------------

“The summer of 1931”?

The next shoe to drop is the stock market. It’s not that complicated either. When wholesale prices on supplies and raw materials go up, but businesses can’t pass along those costs because consumers are already maxed-out, then corporate profits plummet and the stock market crashes down with the force of an avalanche.

Journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard summed it up like this: “It feels like the summer of 1931. The world’s two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt. No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution. The International Monetary Fund has abdicated into schizophrenia. . . . My view is that a dollar crash will be averted as it becomes clearer that contagion has spread worldwide. But we are now at the point of maximum danger.” (Ambrose Evans- Pritchard, “The Global Economy is at the point of maximum danger,” UK Telegraph)

“Maximum danger,” indeed. Stock market mayhem is just around the corner. Visualize the Dow at 6,000 and then hang on for dear life. The indexes will tumble and Wall Street will be reduced to Dresden-type rubble, nothing left but toxic fumes and twisted iron. By the end of 2009, the last few bulls will be driven out of the exchanges and onto the streets where they’ll be slaughtered one by one. It won’t be pretty.

According to Bloomberg News, “Investors worldwide are betting more than $1 trillion on a collapse in stock prices.” . . .



Source: http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3541.shtml

[Rex]

1. Well is the actual worth 6000?

Who could buy Wall Street?

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

2. Two good questions...

...for neither of which I know the answer.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

3. I don't anticipate the DOW to reflect the crash. nt

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

4. How so?

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

15. Because it reflects one fairly elite segment of this nation,....

,...a segment that has adopted practices intended to perpetuate fiction.

Formerly, a CRASH involved more than the economic elite. No more.

[flvegan]

5. Below 6000 within 6 months? Absolutely not.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

6. Have you got a prediction for the six month time frame?

[flvegan]

7. Prediction?

As to what market, to what investment group in which country?

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

8. The Dow Jones (U.S. stock market).

[flvegan]

10. That's a tough one.

We've got two (almost) full quarters to go in a downward trending market. However, overall speculation on the Dow is poor right now, I think because our economy is faltering. However, in the eyes of the world, I have to think that the average speculating investor is looking at our pending election. Our economy is faltering because of the current administration (that's not politics, that's fact). The hiring of a kick-ass CEO/CFO usually give a corporation a boost. Obama may well be viewed as that CEO/CFO and I think a lot of folks are hedging bets on that.

America is about to take a big write down, and the balance sheet won't look good through the end of the year, but I think the horizon does. If, for lack of a better term, America was a Preferred Stock, I'd be buying right now and holding for a bit.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

12. Thanks for the thoughtful reply -- the horizon I see looks more like this...

[MercutioATC]

9. No. I expect a bottom of 8k-10k in the next 18 months.

Judging from the snapshot of today's picture, probably near the end of that timeframe...say 14 months.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

14. That bug's great...

...gets me every time.

[Dr.Phool]

11. We have pool going in the Stock Market Watch thread.

As to when the Dow will hit the same number it did on the day chimpo took office.

We came within 300 pts last week. I have August 22nd.

The S&P(a better indicator)is over 100 pts lower now. Forget Nasdaq.

I believe it could hit 6,000 eventually, but I think it will be a long, slow process.

[TexasObserver]

13. No, and I doubt seriously it will dip below 9000

The past 11 months have shown that the FED will devalue the dollar rather than see the DOW drop. If the FED had not been bailing water the past 11 months, the DOW would already be below 10K. The DOW is an illusion, because while the DJIA is still above 11K, those dollars it represents are devalued from even a year ago.

I believe they will continue to juice the markets with manipulations to keep the illusion that the DOW is higher than it is in real dollars.

I do not expect a collapse of Depression magnitude.

[Dr.Phool]

16. The Plunge Protection Team has been juicing like crazy.

Dow can be down 330 pts at 3:30pm, and close at 4:00 50-100 up.

A lot of that has been going on the last few months.

The PPT the Fed, Treas, and a couple more. Created by Reagan after his crash.

[readmoreoften]

17. Could a handful of people gain unprecedented amounts of cash by shorting the market

and staging a fall? I don't know the answer. (Maybe someone does.) If the answer is yes, then sure. I can see them creating a global disaster for just that purpose.

[JeanGrey]

19. I know that a ton of people putting into stocks through their

401K and private investments will end up making a fortune if stocks fall that far and can be picked up that cheaply. Especially those that have 20 years or more to go.

[CK_John]

18. I predicted 8500 for this past May, but the market is now a controlled entity with their plunge

protection team in place. After the election is another story and the next president will be seen as Hoover 2 and a one termer at best.

We will need a civilian and a military draft to rebuild the economy and infrastructure.

They will also have a mini crash in Oct if the GOP research shows (I think it will) that voters will tend to vote for old white guy before an untested black guy in a economic meltdown.

[madrchsod]

20. ambrose must be betting on the collapse

what a fucking fool

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

21. Kick for a larger sample.

[scheming daemons]

22. No..... after November 4th, the stock market will start to recover and we'll see a bull market

[Phred42]

23. They will not allow it to crash until they can blame Obama

[Phred42]

24. self delete

[Phred42]

25. It the Market drops below 6000 we will see the end of the US

They will use it (ala Shock Doctrine)to launch the North American Union, Amero and cashless Society

Turn in your dollars...we'll give you 1 Amero for every 10 or 20 dollars and by the way Now you have to learn the Pledge of Allegiance to the WTO

[El Pinko]

26. I don't see a severe stock market correction as unlikely, but...

...I also don't see the stock market as reflecting America's well-being at all.

In the 2000's, as the stock market soared and the top 10% raked in money, the next 40% or so saw modest gains, while the bottom half of so saw their incomes drop, but tried to supplement them by flipping and with home equity loans and credit cards - chickens that are now coming home to roost in the form of plummeting home prices. Not necessarily a bad thing, since it had become a relatively common thing for people to spend upwards of 60% of their take-home pay on rent or mortgage payments alone (there was a time when nobody with any sense would spend more than 30% of their pay on house payments or rent).

I think most Americans are in for some very bad economic times indeed, but the stock market will do what it will do, regardless. Wall street seems to have a party every time some company lays off another 100,000 people, but the cumulative effect of millions of good jobs being destroyed and replaced by flipping, home equity loans, and crappy "service industry" jobs cannot possibly b good for our long-term economic prospects.

[Union Thug]

27. I agree. Wall Street gains don't benefit Main Street realities.

You said it well - Wall Street has an orgasm when people lose their jobs and when wages and benefits are slashed.

I dumped all my company stock a long time ago. Screw the stock market and its criminal enterprise. I hope they all go broke.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

28. Kick for a larger sample.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

29. Kick for a larger sample.

[Neshanic]

30. October will head south, then in November after election and Chinese economy real estate panic.

The Olympics will end, China will tighten up, and then all that money that they throw around will dry up, with all the bad loans they made to their people. All will combine into quite a nasty October and November for stocks.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

31. Kick for a larger sample.

[BlooInBloo]

32. I think the entire universe will implode within 3 hours....

And anyone who disagrees with me has their heads in the sand.

[Political Heretic]

33. No, not that far.

[Douglas Carpenter]

34. If an attack on Iran occurs - the stock market will almost certainly crash - caused by

both fears if oil supply disruption through the Persian Gulf and actual oil supply disruption through the Persian Gulf thus sending oil prices into the stratosphere.

Short of this or some other major catastrophe, I think a stock market crash in the foreseeable future is highly unlikely.

In fact it is entirely possible that even the technical definition of recession will not occur:

Officially, what defines a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real Gross Domestic Product. In practice, any period of high rates of unemployment, interest rates, inflation.
http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/3807

It is more likely that very real economic suffering which effects people in day to day life will gradually increase and increase without a dramatic event such as a stock market crash or depression or even a "technical recession".

Still any military attack on Iran will no doubt trigger a massive stock market crash and a global depression of catastrophic proportions which will more than meet and exceed all technical definitions.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

35. Kick for a larger sample.