Proof Media Cherry Picks Data to Continue Horserace

[kpete]

Proof Media Cherry Picks Data to Continue Horserace
By MsJoanne - July 28, 2008, 5:20PM
Why report news when creating it is so much more fulfilling?

Some choice tidbits:

Looking at the CNN national polling map, we see Virginia identified as red, meaning McCain, and the poll connected to that (VCU) shows McCain up by 8 points. Yet the RCP Average for Virginia reveals Obama +1. The VCU survey cited by CNN was done on May 12-18. RCP lists no less than six polls that are more recent. Five of them give Obama the lead, while one gives McCain the lead by a single point. Clearly this is a very close race, but why did CNN feel it necessary to quote a poll that is over two months out of date and well outside the statistical norm of the other polling?

What about the critical state of Florida? CNN paints it red on the basis of an ARG poll dated 7/21 giving McCain a 2 point edge. The RCP Average for Florida reveals a tie. The most recent Rasmussen poll (7/22) shows Obama at +2. The most recent Quinnipiac (6/16) shows Obama at +4. To be fair, the RCP site is not yet showing the most recent ARG poll cited by CNN, and only shows ARG’s poll from June which had Obama at +5. The question this begs is: why does CNN have the most up to date polling only when it favors McCain? Why does CNN ignore more recent polling only when that polling favors Obama?

What about Indiana? This is another close race that needs an honest analysis. CNN paints Indiana red on the basis of a poll done in APRIL by the South Bend Tribune (a journalistic juggernaut?) giving McCain an 8 point lead. Yet the RCP Average for Indiana is Obama +0.5. The surveys used in that average include the poll cited by CNN, but also three other polls, all of which give Obama an edge, by +8, +1, and +1.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/07/proof-media-cherry-picks-data.php
and more at:
http://tpzoo.wordpress.com/2008/07/27/why-report-news-when-creating-it-is-so-much-more-fulfilling/

[Muttocracy]

1. they miss the Dem. primaries. Gotta get ratings somehow.

[ladjf]

2. I don't buy the "horse race" theory. I think that the media is hired

as the propaganda arm of the current power holders. Their mission is to aid and abet their masters in every way possible.

[Cobalt-60]

3. Absolutely right

These presstitutes have no credibility.

[DCKit]

5. They have to convince us beforehand that it's close...

or their contention after the fact, and after they've stolen yet another election, won't fly.

We've got to pay very close attention this time around and debunking their claims ahead of time removes one of their key tools supporting any claim of the race being too close to call.

[ladjf]

8. I agree.

[TexasObserver]

4. You're right. Here's my letter to MSNBC yesterday.

I wrote this and sent it Sunday night, so I would know MSNBC had it in their hands well before 6 AM Monday, and directed it to Morning Joe, among others. I won't quote the entire email here, but I challenged them to consult Real Clear Politics, or other averaging sources, and to explain how McCain could win the election without winning all his leaning states and all battleground states.

The reality is that Obama is up 8 points in Pennsylvania, which is more than Gore and Kerry combined won the state. Since RealClearPolitics uses the averages of the polls, we know it is a more sound indicator than any single poll, do we not? I invite you to check my numbers on Real Clear Politics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

McCain's nationwide numbers are skewed upward by the big margins he holds in about ten states, where he averages double digit leads. Those states he is winning big are Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Kansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arizona, and West Virginia. McCain also has current, but slight, leads in North Carolina and Missouri.

McCain polls consistently between 41-45%, and that nationwide number is inflated by those states I mentioned above. Please look at the chart linked. Take a good look and ask yourself: "How can McCain win this race?" He's got to almost run the table on all the battleground states.

Pennsylvania will go for Obama. So will Ohio and Michigan. It's not going to be closer than 50 electoral votes. I believe Obama will win over 300 electoral votes. Can you acknowledge that the average of current polls shows Obama ahead in states that would give him 322 electoral votes, if the election were held today?

[Supersedeas]

6. the sympathetic answer is that the 24hr news cycle demands a competitive race--a less sympathetic

analysis would suggest that the corporate media wants John McCain to win and the only way they can 'Diebold' the election is to give the 'appearance' that it is close.

[KharmaTrain]

7. Statistic Lies, Liars Use Statistics

I used to get a nice penny for being able to take ratings numbers and make them say all sorts of things. None of them were false, just finding the devil in the details. Anyone with a knowledge of the system and methodology can do the same thing with poll numbers. Given a large enough survey, you can probalby find people who think black is white...all ya gotta do is a little digging.

One other thing about polls and one that we rarely hear about...and that's how they're conducted. How many people were surveyed, where were they, how old and which sex. Then there's the questions that are asked...a poorly worded or ambiguous question will give "outlier" results. Thus, not all polls are the same and given the variables stated above, results can swing depending on if they get a stronger sample of one group over another and then attempt to "weight" the results.

Of course the corporate media wants a tight horserace. It means ratings. Look at how many people here all but live to watch (and bitch) at the cable shows. These guys fear a replay of '96 when not only was the election boring, but the networks lost millions in bonus ratings money...being able to charge higher rates due to increased viewership. Also, for the major networks, close races mean big buys on their local stations...they want a piece of the nearly 1 billion being raised and will be spent this election cycle. A close election means those slots in the local news are like manna from heaven...easy money that will help these stations offset lost retail revenue.

Actually I like the close poll numbers...and hope its pissing or scaring people here. This election is far from won...and no matter how inept Gramps campaign is, we not fighting them, we're fighting a corporate media. They have the airwaves, we have the street...I prefer the streets...taking the real messages to the voters. Here's hoping this is a kick for others to work hard as well...let's not only win this thing, but win it big.