From looking at the program "Eye of The Storm"...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

Which is pretty shit-hot Hurricane tracking software, I would say that NOLA has a real good shot at missing the brunt of the storm.

On the other hand, Baton Rouge, Houston and Galveston might not be so lucky.

They are estimating windspeeds to be 125MPH by 0600Zulu.

[Purveyor]

1. From looking at the 'eye on the radar'....I'm not seeing this shift to the left. In fact,

I keep seeing a slight jog back to the east.

Just saying...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

6. Here is the very latest public advisory:

Gustav
WTNT32 KNHC 010253
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 310 MILES...
500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...27.3 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WWWW

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

8. And here is the discussion:

Gustav
WTNT42 KNHC 010257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



[ddeclue]

2. I look at NWS site and Weather Channel..

where do you get this software? what are the features?

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. You get it here:

http://www.starstonesoftware.com/eots/

And it has a number of features for tracking storms. Seems pretty good.

[ddeclue]

5. For 40 bucks, I'll stick with the free NHC website... n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

7. I am using the free trial version.

It works fine.

[Elidor]

4. I think this is it

http://www.starstonesoftware.com/eots/