BAD feeling about Gustav. Looks like it's headed slightly more EAST than they've projected.

[Brotherjohn]

I keep watching it approach on radar, and it looks (to me) like it's heading for landfall 20-40 miles EAST of what they've been saying (as of 10:00 CDT advisory). That would mean all the difference (for the worse) for thousands of additional suburban NOLA homes, possibly flooding many on the West Bank, in both St. Charles and Jefferson Parish (where my Dad's house is... he's thankfully left, though). The difference is that the worst of the surge would shoot up Barataria Bay as opposed to Terrebone/Timbailer Bay and Bayou Lafourche, so the more populous suburbs south and west of NOLA (as opposed to smaller communities like Larose, Cutoff and Raceland, which I wouldn't wish it on either).

I've watched these things my whole life, and they eye often wobbles. This can make exact tracking difficult (especially when the eye had not been well-defined before as here, but is becoming moreso). I fear the NOLA suburbs may get flooded much worse than people were thinking going to bed tonight, and thousands of people will be in the same situation as Katrina.

[liberalmuse]

1. It kinda looks that way, doesn't it?

I was hoping it would fizzle to a category 2. Really hoping. If it floods the city even close to what it did 3 years ago, I just don't see how people are going to want to do it all over again. Then again, the people who came back to rebuild are pretty tough souls.

[Brotherjohn]

5. I'm NOT crazy! You see it too? Course, the eye is ~20 mi across, but...

... just tracking the center of the eye to me puts it well east of where NOAA has it. And the wind and surge mostly pushes up on the NE side.

My brother rebuilt in Lakeview. But he told me yesterday "If we flood again, I'm leaving."

[thewiseguy]

2. Is it me or the storm has a distinct eye now?

:wow:

I thought the pressure was rising again and now this!

[Brotherjohn]

3. I think the pressure more or less stabilized, AND it regained an eye.

Usually, anything much into Cat 1 would have some kind of eye. I was surprised when Gustav lost his. Hoped that meant he was going to fizzle (which he sort of did, but any Cat 3 is still a monster).

[POAS]

4. 954 mb @ 11 PM EDT

edit to add: looks like an eye forming to me also!

[thewiseguy]

7. That eye is legitimate.

I am looking at different satellite imagery. Water vapor, IR, and ...

The convection has wrapped around the eye with no dry air around it. :wtf:

This is unbelievable. I hope we dont have a rapid strengthening system on our hands.

[POAS]

12. I saw it in the infrared...clearly

[Warpy]

6. Yes, that's normal for these big storms

The eye gets big, disappears, and then reforms with lower pressure in the center of the storm as the storm intensifies. Most of these storms do the process several times. If NOLA is lucky, they'll get hit during a fizzle cycle. If they're really lucky, this thing will confound the weather people and fizzle completely to a Cat 1.

The only good news is that the track has it going to a tropical depression over land and stalling right on top of Crawford, Texas.

I really hope people are taking this one seriously, though. It looks like it's going to be a mean one, fizzle or no fizzle.

[truedelphi]

9. Are you serious abt it stalling directly over Crawford TX??

Someone else here on DU said that, but I thought they were joking.

[thewiseguy]

10. Yes but this is a sign of a strengthening system

I am hearing about lightning strikes within the eye and a massive blowup in the convection there.

I just hope its not rapidly intensifying.

[eshfemme]

13. Wow... all the Crawford, TX hurricane jokes are actually coming true?

Kinda creepy...

[jobycom]

8. That's what I was thinking, too, but it's hard to tell.

First, I've noticed from a lifetime of watching these things that they frequently hook to the northeast when they get close to landfall, and this looks like it's doing that.

But it's hard to tell.

[itsrobert]

11. Looks like it's making a turn East

Why is the media still reporting West. Can't they see the radar?

[SeattleVet]

14. Isn't it worse for NOLA if they catch the east side of the storm?

The west side is drier; if the east side passes through New Orleans they will get less intense wind, but a LOT more rain.