Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion

[panzerfaust]

Source: NWS NOAA

500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
SLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
MEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED
EARLIER. IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT
AN EYEWALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND
A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


Read more: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/010915.shtml

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Fortunately it did not strengthen overnight.

With "100 KT (~115 mph) A GENEROUS ESTIMATE" for winds it just makes cat-3, and, having an incomplete eyewall, from the wording, one has to wonder if it being kept a 3 for political reasons.

In any event, the people who were able/could afford to leave did well to do so. NOLA is in the NE quadrant of the storm, which is always - in our hemisphere - the most dangerous.

Thoughts and prayers

[Dr.Phool]

1. Good news.

Hopefully it keeps falling apart before landfall in the next couple of hours. A strong Cat 2 is still capable of a lot of damage, but thankfully it's heading towards a lightly populated area.

I think the repukes were really looking for an excuse to cancel their convention. With all the notables who said they weren't going to attend, even before Gustav formed, it was going to be a sick joke. Now McLame can fly to California and wait to direct disaster relief when "The Big One" hits.

[panzerfaust]

2. Now addmittedly a Cat-2 this morning (Still very dangerous)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/011301.shtml

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...

[Zero Division]

3. Blog update from Jeff Masters at wunderground.com

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1055&tstamp=200809

Hurricane Gustav is making landfall on the Louisiana coast just west of New Orleans as a powerful Category 2 or weak Category 3 hurricane. Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters at 8:30 am EDT shows that Gustav continues to weaken, with the pressure now 957 mb, and no surface winds above Category 2 strength observed. Cold water that the hurricane stirred up from the depths plus the effects of wind shear caused the eyewall to collapse a few hours before landfall, resulting in weakening. However, the hurricane reacted to collapse of the eyewall by broadening its wind field, spreading out the strongest winds over a wider area. The diameter of coastline being subjected to tropical storm force winds is now 440 miles, the same as Katrina. Hurricane force winds will be felt by a 115 mile-wide stretch of coast (Katrina's reach was 205 miles). Gustav remains a huge and powerful storm whose winds and storm surge will cause a tremendous amount of damage as the storm blasts through Louisiana today.