Just what would you say to my cousin about a hurricane?

[tannybogus]

I am as ready as I will ever be. There is one track that puts it right over me.
Que sera. Not gonna worry. That won't help.
At least we don't have levees! Not gonna worry because what can I do.

I live 60 miles inland, but it can still be a ride. I have a cousin who
lives at Myrtle Beach. She has become an expert. Here is what I have been told:
1-It's safer at the shore than inland.(No comment)
2-She knows how high her house sits and she knows the water won't get that high.
(She doesn't live on a mountain and is barely across Highway 17. I told her that wasn't a wall.)
3-She only has one tree to worry about because she knows which way the wind comes from.
(Try telling her that the wind switches direction. She has a brazillion trees in her yard.)

She has her 98 year old mother living with her. She won't leave no matter what the category.
I did tell her to put me in her will with one caveat. I inherit anything left if (and when)
she is blown away by a hurricane.:crazy:

[glowing]

1. Well, they usually only close before the 17 marker.. I was never mandated

to leave.. but we did when a 3 came in.. Wasn't as bad.. we didn't catch it directly on.. but that was years ago.. I think SC handles hurricanes, at least when I was there, much better than FL could even imagine. She'll be alright if its below a 3, after that, she's an idiot.. From someone who's been there, and done that.

[nichomachus]

2. Most hurricane deaths come inland

from the flooding -- Katrina was a rarity in that regard.

However, a large percentage of deaths -- 25-30 percent -- come after the hurricane, during cleanup activities. They mostly come from accidents -- falling off your roof -- from heart attacks from over-exertion, or in some vulnerable populations just the stress of the event itself triggering heart attacks and strokes.

[Brotherjohn]

13. This is dangerously misleading.

Most hurricane deaths statistically may come inland. But the RISK (per person) of dying from drowning is far greater if you stay on the coast. And if you die inland from drowning due to rainfall-related floods, it is largely also because there were risks to where you were living inland (such as a home near a river prone to flooding). One would hope an evacuee from a storm would not stay in a flood-prone shelter or hotel.

"Most deaths come inland" is partly because most people directly ON the coast don't stay for a hurricane, and especially for ones projected to be strong. If they did, far more people would die from storm surge than anything else.

"Most deaths come inland" is also true simply because far more people live inland than directly on the coast.

Cleanup deaths... so what? That is neither here nor there regarding the danger this poster's cousin is in. That does not minimize the danger of staying on the coast.

Katrina was not a rarity. For a storm with a strong storm surge, the vast majority of deaths occur on the coast, due to that surge (in the U.S.; less-developed countries have greater problems with mudslides and flooding). For a run-of-the-mill weaker storm without much of a surge, there isn't as much to cause death on the shore (and most storms are run-of-the-mill weaker storms). The wind is always highest at the coast regardless. Katrina was only a "rarity" in the sense that it was a very strong storm (although it weakened to a Cat 3 by landfall, it was a very strong Cat 5 the day before, and carried with it a record storm surge of 28 feet). But you can never predict with certainty how strong a storm is going to be (surge or wind) until is too late to evacuate.

And I also take issue with your characterization of Katrina being a rarity in another sense. New Orleans is inland, not "on the coast". Look at the map. People think it is right on the beach. It is not. It is on average 40-60 miles from the coast, depending on direction. Its levees are supposed to protect it from flooding and surge just as levees in communities all across the nation are supposed to protect those communities from flooding.

[magellan]

3. Has she been through a hurricane?

I have a family member living right on the SE coast who hasn't, and she's determined to stay even if Hanna turns her way as a CAT 2 or higher. I've tried warning her about storm surge and the winds. I don't think people have a good appreciation for how dangerous hurricanes are unless they've actually been through one.

[tannybogus]

4. There have been a couple that skirted right offshore.

She has never been through even a 2. She wasn't here for Hugo, but try telling her anything.
My mother told her she was a fool, and my mother is usually very circumspect about calling out family.
Everybody has told them and offered places to stay inland.
I told her there would come a point when she would want to leave and it would be too late.

[magellan]

11. Yeah, that's not the same thing but you'll never convince her of that

Some people just refuse to learn from the experience of others. They've got to make the mistake themselves to learn they're wrong.

I said essentially the same thing to my relative that you told your cousin, that she'd better understand that if she decides to stay, no one will come and rescue her if she finds herself in trouble. But she's fascinated by bad weather and nothing I say will deter her.

I think only the scare of their lives will set our loved ones right about Mother Nature. Let's hope neither of them have to learn that lesson.

edited word

[Brotherjohn]

5. Here's my try. Hope she listens.

1) Safer on the shore than inland? I don't understand this at all. On the shore, she will experience both the full force of the storm surge, and the full force of the wind. Both can kill her before she has a chance to realize she was wrong.

2) She knows how high her house is? I don't know about the elevation, other than general MB elevation is listed as 30 feet. That MAY be high enough, but who knows about where she is, if she is near bayous, etc.... and who knows WHAT the water will do. If she is close to the water, she is at risk. A lot of people on the coast in Pensacola knew how high their houses were; some were on rises and on pilings on top of that. I listened to some horrific 9-11 calls of the 30 or so who died there for Ivan. Not to mention the MS Gulf Coast for Katrina... some people lived a mile back and lost everything. Many people who died were in houses were at a decent elevation above sea level. Biloxi is on a "ridge", not right at beach level. Has she not heard the stories (true) of people surviving by hanging onto trees after being washed out of their second and third floors?

3) Trees/wind. She has NO IDEA which way the wind will come from. If Hanna hits to her east, she gets a north wind. If it hits to her west, she gets a south wind. If it hits dead on, she gets an east wind, and then a west wind. She could get wind from any direction at all.

Do you know more specifically where in MB she lives? (without giving out her address of course)

[tannybogus]

8. She actually lives in Pawleys Island.

Near Murphys Trail.

[Brotherjohn]

14. Elevation: 12 feet. Not good.

http://www.downloadzipcode.com/SC/29585/index.html

[tannybogus]

16. You would think it was the tip of Everest to hear her. nt

[Brotherjohn]

18. I was confident in Pensacola for Ivan. We lived at ~ 70 feet above sea level, right on the water.

The "bluffs", they call it. To my knowledge, that's the highest shoreline on the entire U.S. Gulf Coast.

While we wouldn't flood there, the winds almost took our roof. Others in town drowned from surge (who thought they were safe). The town was out of commission for ~2 weeks. It was a dangerous place to be. It convinced me to NEVER stay on the coast for any hurricane that even has a chance of being a Cat 2 or higher.

[Feron]

19. In addition to that...

Microbursts and tornados are common in hurricanes.

A tornado in Katrina topped three of my longleaf pines and completely uprooted another one.

Gustav topped one of the surviving pines.

So even if the wind direction can be known, that's no guarantee that you won't get a tree in your home.

[Warpy]

6. Could it be a function of age?

My parents were over 80 when they stopped being worried about hurricanes and stubbornly insisted on staying put on their barrier island barely a foot above sea level. I realized that was a function of age and kept my trap shut.

At that point they were neither ignorant nor stupid but realized they were at the jumping off point, anyway, and wanted to stay where they felt most comfortable no matter what.

Your cousin's mother is 98. If she's over 70, she's had her three score and ten and is in the same mental place my folks were and is only trying to justify fatalism by repeating a bunch of comforting hooey she's heard from people bucking for Darwin Awards.

I'm afraid there is nothing you can do about it.

[tannybogus]

10. My aunt has to rely on my cousin. My cousin is 55.

My aunt isn't doing great mentally, however I know she probably
could pitch a fit and my cousin would shrug. We've tried telling
her to at least bring my aunt inland.
I've stopped worrying too much. I still do some however, and I feel
sorry for my aunt.
Hmmmmmm... I am going to get another cousin who lives near me, and
we are going to try to get my aunt if things look bad.
Family Feud!!!

[Warpy]

12. Pitching a fit might be the least of it

People are terribly fragile at 98 and just moving her and expecting her to stay in shelter conditions for a few days could provide enough stress to do her in.

Bringing them to your house for a family visit might be a little easier on her if she's familiar with the surroundings.

Good luck, in any case. Hurricanes are not fun.

[tannybogus]

15. My aunt knows who we are. That might be a bad thing - LOL.

She still can deal with things. As far as fragile, the women in the family never say die.
She has been the poor older woman, and they have had to help her take showers, etc.
I was told that my cousin saw her get on a kitchen chair to reach the top of the
refrigerator and get a bottle of wine down. She filled a glass and then put it back on
top of the refrigerator.
I'm not saying she is not fragile, etc. However, knowing how my mother and other aunts
reacted as they grew old, I wouldn't take my eyes off her.

[shraby]

7. Tell her to register their names and next of

kin with the authorities so the bodies can be identified and taken care of properly by family after the hurricane. That might make her think a bit.

[tannybogus]

9. I told her that. She shrugs. nt

[GumboYaYa]

17. I have been through direct its from a 1, 2, 3, & 4.

Unless I was right on the coast where surge is an issue, I would never leave for a 1-2. After living through a 4, I would never, ever stick around for one that big. If it is a 3, it would depend on how close I was to the eye wall.