Smart Money on Sarah Palin Dropping Off Ticket Say Oddsmakers

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.gambling911.com/politics/smart-money-sarah-palin-dropping-ticket-say-oddsmakers-090208.html

A host of online odds makers have begun offering betting on whether Republican Presidential candidate John McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, will come off the ticket following a series of scandals.

The smart money is that Palin will be dumped from the ticket by McCain, according to a Bloomberg News report.

Many of Great Britain's odds makers had Palin dropping off the ticket set at 20-1 odds, paying 20 pounds for every 1 pound bet. Now that payout would be closer to 8 pounds.

``While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.

Paddy Power now puts the odds of Palin leaving the ticket at 14-1, compared to 28-1 before yesterday's disclosure about Bristol Palin, the daughter.

Since Sunday night, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has been holed up in her suite in the Hilton Minneapolis while a parade of Sen. John McCain's top advisers have briefed her on the nuances of his policy positions, national politics and, above all, how to introduce herself to the national audience she will address Wednesday night at the Republican convention, reports Juliet Eilperin and Robert Barnes of the Washington Post.

[AndreaCG]

1. And these odds were before the National Enquirer affair story

Try 3-1 now.

[Ex Lurker]

2. I question how much "smart money" there really is in Britain concerning

American poltics. I suspect it's a pretty thin wagering pool, and that it has little to do with actual probabilities. Expecting Palin to drop out is a bit like Republicans expecting the Wright thing, the citizenship thing, or one of the other things to drive Obama out of the race. If you have to count on a deus ex machina, your goose is cooked anyway. Face it, it's going to be Obama-Biden vs McCain-Palin in November, and it'll be close, just like the last four or five elections; it would be that way no matter who was running. It has little to do with the personalities, and everything with how the electorate divides itself up nowadays.