Yes...turn out is the game here. The 50-state strategy by Dr. Dean and Senator Obama is kicking ass. Here's a post from DKos...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/6/05150/43557/176/588661The registration trends are in. If McCain is counting on a base turnout strategy, these numbers tell the story of why that will just not work. In contrast these numbers are good news for Obama and a demonstration of why the GOTV efforts that Obama is laying the foundation for will have such an important role. The dems are killing in a number of key states and if they can get these voters to the polls he will have an advantage.
State
R
D
Other
Period
AK 2,836 2,628 6,825 March-September
AZ 32,141 68,480 4,359 January-September
CA 46,497 417,793 117,313 January-May
CO 13,352 66,516 23,437 January-July
DE 676 4,428 2,200 July-September
FL 77,196 209,422 26,100 January-June
IA 7,515 69,301 -62,922 January-August
KS 1,553 13,159 -1,704 January-March
MD 4,260 12,338 5,544 January-July
NV 1,230 51,547 7,550 January-August
NH -1,285 1,188 269 June-August
NY 1,526 102,559 -164 November-March
NC 20,363 171,955 123,605 January-August
OR -13,349 122,518 - January-July
PA 289 98,137 15,907 April-August
WY 1,390 3,409 5,892 January-August
The key states here are Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania and Iowa. The dramatic differences in these states are especially bad news for McCain because each of these states are considered swing states vital for a victory in November. To get a good handle on how Obama is doing we always have to use the Kerry map. Obama would need 19 more electoral votes than Kerry to win. Of the states above Bush won Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Iowa.
The game is to canvass...connect with voters one at a time...and make sure they get to the polls on election day.
My wife and I are arranging voting parties here...each of us will be taking between 10-15 first time voters (mostly young people) to the polls on election day to cast their first ballots. If we can get this kind of effort in the "battlegrounds", Camp Gramps is screwed.
Thanks for fighting the good fight and don't swallow the corporate media and GOOP distractions...retail politics and the ground game is what won elections for the GOOP for years, now the momentum is on our side...exploit it and win.
Cheers...