I know I'll be called a concern troll (again), but I think the majority of recent posts on DU...

[leftofthedial]

are completely blind to the threat posed by the Palin selection.

I see posts ridiculing her and those repukes who have expressed support for her and rightly so. She is a nutjob right-wing theocratic hypocrite who appears to be corrupt right down to her bones. Plus, she seems to be a terrible mother, more than willing to use her children as stage props to boost her own ego. I can't stand the piece of crap or anything she represents.

BUT, I think she has brought the religious nutjobs back to the McCain camp. I believe most of them had lost faith in the repuke party, hated McCain for his former pro-choice position and planned to sit this one out. If indeed that constituency is fairly solidly back in the repuke ranks, it could represent about 20% of the vote.

I think Palin also has re-energized the radical right gun-nut, xenophobic and anti-tax elements of the repuke base.

The media seems to adore her. Considering that they are owned by the repukes, it could make her appeal to the brain-dead even stronger.

I like the McCain-same-as-bush ads I've seen recently from Obama. It's the first time I've seen an effective attack ad from a Democrat. I think they need more of that. Logical, reasoned arguments about Palin's shortcomings are fine here at DU, but the Obama campaign needs to give her a little "pit bull" treatment of her own.

I think it is foolhardy to dismiss Palin's potential impact on the campaign. Remember, they don't have to win. If they can keep it within 25 points or so, they can steal it again. a 2-point lead in the polls for Obama will result in a 20-point loss in November.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

1. When you have a serious problem, only fools aren't concerned.

Palin was a tactical masterstroke on McCain's part, and right now Joe Biden has the toughest job in American politics.

[WheelWalker]

7. Agreed. It's only a fool who never felt like one. n/t

[Lucinda]

54. Yup. It was. If he hadn't done it, his campaign would already be dead.

I'm still shocked that he did it even though I called it before Biden was selected.

[Epiphany4z]

2. he already had all those votes

the difference? will they vote with scowl or a smile on there face...she has gained him nearly nothing and will cost him dearly with middle.

[Strelnikov_]

3. "she has gained him nearly nothing and will cost him dearly with middle"

Agree.

[leftofthedial]

12. I disagree.

Many of the "social conservatives" loathe McCain. He did not receive automatic endorsements from the usual lineup of evengelical conmen as previous repukes have.

He would NOT have gotten many of those votes.

I'd like to see some evidence of this shifting middle. I think most of the vaunted "middle" was already in Obama's camp.

[Epiphany4z]

14. they loathe Democrats worse

they would have voted for him...bitched about it ...but they would have...who wont vote for him now is anyone in the middle..Palin is an extremest..I am real sure the worst parts about her are not even out yet.

[Clear Blue Sky]

18. Correct.

Palin has solidified the base for McCain and now he can be Mr Independent/Maverick going after the swing votes, Reagan Democrats, etc.

[JimDandy]

32. That's right! But the tightrope he's going to have to walk WILL

fray until it breaks from the constant chaffing of contradictory remarks from his campaign.

[Andy823]

25. I agree with you.

Any of those people who are "fired" up over Palin, would never have voted for Obama in the first place, but have been in McCains camp the whole time. As for the religious right, he may have gotten a few of them worked up enough to come out and vote, but I have seen some of them who have also come out and said they would have voted for him "before" he picked Palin, even though they don't like him, but now "after" picking Palin, they will stay home. I don't think he wins much at all with her, and to make here the main "issue" of this race is stupid to say the least. We need to attack McCain on his lack of discussion on the "REAL" issues, like health care, the economy, ect. People are voting for or against McCain, not Palin. Rove wants us to go after here, dwell on her, and let McCain get a free ride when it comes to talking about the "REAL" issuses!

[mike_c]

34. I disagree too....

Palin went from "John McCain's Harriet Meirs moment" to a campaign phenomenon seemingly effortlessly. That was only partly her doing-- part was campaign management, part was spin, and so on, but a big part is that many of the same folks who were very skeptical about her in the first day or two have guzzled their Kool-aid and become enthusiastic supporters. I think she's becoming more of a threat than McCain, as in there is a significant block of folks developing who will vote for the McCain/Palin ticket because they're voting for HER, not for grandpa McGrumpy.

[Curtland1015]

4. There are tons of topics about her poor political judgement and failed policies.

No offense meant, but what else are we to do from our computer chairs?

[leftofthedial]

13. There are many excellent critical posts.

I'm more concerned about those who are obsessed with criticizing "concern trolls" and those who glibly announce that the Palin selection was a disaster for McCain and that no republicans are excited about Palin.

[Lex]

5. He rallied his base and alienated the mainstream and swing voters.

That's what he did.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

15. I'm afraid I don't think it's that simple.

He certainly rallied his base, but I think the excitement and personality that Palin will add to his campaign, plus the fact that appointing a woman as his running mate will come across as not-far-right, may help him more with moderates and swing voters than Palin's policies harm him.

Remember than nearly all the discussion we've seen so far has been of Palin's personal life rather than her views on the issues. If that doesn't change, I think the Democrats are in big trouble.

[leftofthedial]

28. excellent point about selecting the "hocky mom."

[babylonsister]

43. What happens when she refuses to talk to the media for two weeks?

A potential leader of this country, with less than 2 months to go? I think she's headed for a lot of flak, and here's a start:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6968461

[notadmblnd]

45. the Democrats have registered nearly 4 million new voters, mostly young people.

How many fundie nut are there?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

57. Tens of millions, at the least.

[leftofthedial]

17. I don't think there are any "swing voters."

the "democrats" have been chasing ronnie raygun's mythical centrists for nearly 30 years. It seemed to work for Clinton, because he was basically a moderate-right Republican. Other than that, it has cost us the dominant control of Congress, lost the Supreme Court for a generation, and given us twenty years of DISASTROUS repuke control of the White House.

Non-social conservatives below the 70th income percentile were going to vote Democratic anyway.

If Palin can bring the religious nuts back to the polls for McSame, it could make things close enough for the repukes to steal without triggering a violent revolution.

[Gman]

6. No doubt about it

I foolishly thought at first Palin was selected in a bid for disaffected Hillary voters. Now that I know who she is, it's very obvious that she's not there to swing uncommitteds, she's there to maximize the fundie turnout and for no other reason. She's not there to appeal across anything. She is a targeting of the fundies.

Rove blamed a mediocre turnout of fundies in 2000 for the closeness of the race then. He was still dismayed with the fundie vote in 2004 compared to what he thought it should be. They feel if fundies turnout as they can that they are unbeatable. Getting them to the polls is the hard part and is what Palin is all about.

[Danieljay]

8. Well said. Sarah Palin is a woman who is being used for political gain. She lacks self respect.

as well as experience.

Disgusting.

[tavalon]

58. She's the fundie spokesmodel

[DCBob]

9. All she did was energize his base. Minimal impact on switching voters.

She might help him with turnout but this is all too soon to judge. She has yet to be vetted by the media and all those juicy scndals are brewing.

[leftofthedial]

19. She's not switching voters. I'll repeat.

McCain had lost the fundie vote. None of them supported him. Many publicly stated they'd sit out this election rather than vote for him.

Palin has brought that constituency back to the repuke side, not away from Obama, but away from not voting.

[DCBob]

23. Do you really think the angry fundies tell the pollers they are not voting??

I suspect even pre-Palin most said they would vote McCain. The question is would they show up on voting day. I think Palin helps with that.

[leftofthedial]

27. That's not what I've read and heard from them. Sorry.

I think Obama's strong polling was because that bloc was wavering at best in their support of McCain.

[DCBob]

30. In any case it's too early to judge the impact.

The woman has not even taken a single question from the media. Lets revisit this in few weeks after the scandals have broken and she flubs a few press conference questions.

[Overseas]

10. You're not taking into account the JSM III leaners who were scared by the pick.

There are lots of folks who were considering John Sidney McCain III, humble public servant with seven homes, that were turned off by the Palin choice.

I am not sure about the relative sizes of the right wing extremist fundamentalist group that would be energized to go for JSM III because of Palin

vs

Independents or Republicans going along with JSM III, hoping he'd return to his "maverick" stands against the far right, who are now going to vote Obama or stay home.

[leftofthedial]

20. Personally, I don't know anyone who fits this description. Nationally, I haven't read or seen

anyone of this ilk.

In any case, they are certainly outnumbered by the fundies Palin could help to bring back.

[Overseas]

33. On this board there are a few threads talking about such people.

I've heard a lot of people say they were scared of the selection of Palin.

I think there are lots of moderates who do not want Christian Fundamentalists in charge.

[cobalt1999]

11. If he had picked Kay Hutchinson or (really concerning) Olympia Washington

THEN I would have been concerned.

For every vote Palin gains him; she costs him two. However, she will be a player beyond this election and I wouldn't be surprised to see them soften image up and let her run for president outright in 2012.

[Blue_In_AK]

21. The image that she portrayed

in her speech was nothing like the image she has portrayed in Alaska, where despite her fundie social beliefs, she has enjoyed great popularity with the Independents and has worked cooperatively with the Democrats in the legislature. She has downplayed her fundiness here because it doesn't really play well with most Alaskans, who are not particularly religious.

Had she presented to the nation the face that she presented to Alaskans, we'd be in more trouble. I think this abrasive tone that they've made her take will diminish her appeal to swing voters and will cause her problems when she comes back to Alaska, too.

[Vanje]

16. Palin was a brilliant stroke by the McCain camp

to sew up the Snow-machine riding, secessionist Bible-believing adulterers with guns voting block.

[leftofthedial]

24. in other words, the repuke base that has "won" them 5 of the last 7 elections

or at least kept it close enough to steal

[demgrrrll]

26. I wonder how brilliant this will all seem when Ed Schultz broadcasts

1000 people from Alaska who have paid between 25 and 100 dollars to attend a function where they will be able to come to the mic and let everyone know how they feel about Sarah. Can't wait for that. That being said can we please ignore this woman for a bit. I find myself wanting to go to other places on line because this has become all palin all the time.

[bronxiteforever]

22. The economy just kicked in the GOP front door this week.

I agree with your points for 2004 but in 2008 the economy is a rogue wave coming for the GOP.

6% unemployment
Multi billion dollar bail outs
Failing banks
The GOP bet the middle class doesn't care about this. I think this is a gamble that will not pan out.
We need to turn the debate to issues like Biden did yesterday in Pa

[Corgigal]

29. It depends on the types of Republicans you speak of..

For the fundie, bible belt Republicans they can now rationalize themselves to vote for McCain. The northern Republican, greed folks this pick has to puzzle them but they understand that McCain has to pretend the religious folks will get something so they retain power. Northern Republican women could be offended at this pick. Depends on how greedy they are... McCain might actually lose some voters with this pick. Time will tell.

[melody]

31. Yeah, we're doomed, the end is near, best give up

Yadda yadda

Everyone with an ounce of sense knows the situation. Some of us just prefer to remain optimistic.

[AndyTiedye]

35. I Wish I COULD be Optimistic

Of course the Fundies are delighted. The old geezer will kick off in a year or two and Palin gives them the theocracy they want! :scared:

Most people won't know what a nutjob she is becaue the MSM won't tell them.

[melody]

36. It's our election to lose -- we are ahead

Even if McCain pulls ahead by a point or two, it's still a statistical tie. Then we have the debates ahead plus
the great Obama team working through it all. AND we have much more to throw at them than they have to launch
at us.

We are going to win.

[AndyTiedye]

38. You Forget. The Repiggies CHEAT and STEAL

If you think the debates will help us, remember the one we had already at that church.
That's the way they will go. McAin't will be provided the questions well in advance
and be throughly coached on the answers. Same for Palin.
That works wonders for Repiggies' debate performance.

A statistical tie, or anything near it, means the Repiggies will steal the election again.
We need a landslide.

we have much more to throw at them than they have to launch at us.

That didn't help one bit last time. If they haven't got anything, they just make $h¡† up.
The Mighty Slime Machine will spew it on command just the same.

[melody]

40. Not this time -- this is a dramatically different situation

Yeah, they can coach here but when Biden starts pointing out the flaws in her arguments, all will be made clear.

She has energized a much more important base for us -- the independents. They HATE her.

Sorry to disappoint you, but we are going to win this.

[AndyTiedye]

41. Yes, They Say This Time Will Be Different

but they said that last time too.

Yeah, they can coach here but when Biden starts pointing out the flaws in her arguments, all will be made clear.

She has energized a much more important base for us -- the independents. They HATE her.

I hope so. We have been getting conflicting reports, mostly anecdotal so far.

Sorry to disappoint you, but we are going to win this.

Surely you don't think I want the cheaters and thieves who stole the last 2 Preidential elections to "win" again!
They should be in prison, not in power!

[melody]

42. You certainly sounds like you are hoping for the worst case scenario

Either that or just want to build the obstacles so high you don't have to worry about crawling over it.

[bertman]

44. Melody, being a realist and hoping for the worst case scenario are very different. You, on the other

hand, seem to have your head in the clouds. (No, I won't use a different analogy for a fellow Dem).

WAKE UP!! The voting machines are manufactured and programmed by hardcore reich-wing idealogues who have proprietary codes for those machines that they have used to win the LAST TWO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. They do not care about fairness or democracy. They only care about winning and controlling our government.

WAKE UP!! The corporate media controls the polling companies and the mass propaganda that Americans are fed as "news". The corporate media ARE NOT Obama's base. The only MSM people who are challenging McAnus and Palin's blatant Repuke Convention LIES are Rachel Maddow and Keith Olberman. How many Americans watch Rachel Maddow and Keith Olberman? Far too few to matter in this election.

WAKE UP!! Once again the Democratic leadership has failed to do ANYTHING SUBSTANTIVE about correcting the problems with the voting machines. In fact, they have become deaf, dumb and blind whenever the topic rears its ugly head.

WAKE UP!! NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS WORK!!! Repeat NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS WORK!!!. The onslaught is just beginning and Obama has pledged to stay on the "high road". The lies that McAnus and Palin are feeding the TV-fed voting public will gnaw and gnaw and gnaw at the undecideds and independents who might otherwise have voted for our candidate Obama. Unless he REFUTES THOSE LIES IMMEDIATELY AND EMPHATICALLY they will become facts to the masses who do not go online to find out what the real story is.

Far from hoping for the worst-case scenario I am HOPING for Barack Obama to win the election. But I also HOPED for Gore and Kerry. And the Repigs have had eight more years to hone their election-stealing skills. Plus, they've controlled the Justice Department. Ever hear of about a little scandal involving U.S. Attorneys??

[melody]

46. bertman, having been around campaigns forever, I'm a pragmatist

I know that optimism works. Pessimism slows you down and makes you give up -- that's why the right has used it for so long to manipulate us.

Are you doing anything for the election? And if you're not, might that be because you've given yourself a good excuse?

[bertman]

53. Melody, I don't need an excuse. I'm an optimist. If being a pessimist killed you young, as you said,

I would have been dead many years ago.

That old saying about those who fail to learn from the mistakes of history being doomed to repeat them is not just hyperbole. It's true.

To answer your question, yes I am working for Obama. But, while you and I are working to get Obama elected there are others who are working to undermine that. We are doomed to repeat the mistakes of '00 and '04 if OUR LEADERS have not done their part to clear the obstacles from the path of open and fair elections. There is no evidence that they have done that. Actually, there is evidence that they have done NOTHING to change the mechanisms that lead to the defeat of Al Gore and John Kerry.

You don't seem to understand that there are ways of manipulating election results that have been tried and tested and retested, and have been successful. All the wishful thinking and optimism in the world will not overcome that. Unless there's an Obama landslide victory of HISTORIC proportions, the outcome will be in doubt.

As far as the reich wing using pessimism to slow us down and manipulate us, I think they've used lying, psychological techniques, and propaganda, not pessimism, but that's just my opinion.

[melody]

55. They have indeed used pessimism ... I could refer you to numerous white papers on the topic

Let's focus our energy at the real problem -- the GOP.

[AndyTiedye]

51. Not Sure How 'Terrified Of' Turns Into 'Hoping For'

The McCain/Palin ticket IS the worst-case scenario. We will be completely and utterly screwed if they win!
If they don't start World War III, they'll turn the country into a theocracy. They could very well do both.

Palin is worse than Fuckabee or Brownback or any of the other nutbars, but infinitely easier for the MSM to sell to the rubes.

Either that or just want to build the obstacles so high you don't have to worry about crawling over it.

If I were capable of simply not worrying about it that would make things much easier. That is not an option.
I worry about it almost constantly. I donate to the campaign. There really isn't anything else I can do.
I do not have the persuasive skills to be effective at phone banking or door-to-door electioneering or any other form of selling.

I have great respect for those who are able to undo the baleful effects of the Mighty Slime Machine, one voter at a time.

[melody]

52. Don't worry, get working

The EC looks good for us. Tuesday and Wednesday we'll see slippage but pretty soon we'll be back in the lead
in terms of popular vote, too. There is every reason to hope. Pessimism just kills you young and achieves
nothing.

[2Design]

37. exactly - the suv moms and the religious nutjobs will swarm to this

woman and the men who only watch fox because that is where the sports are shown and they like what they are looking at - it is real threat

the people who voted in bush did not have depth or want to understand anything - they made fun of a war hero at the last convention but voted in someone of less intelligence this time

These voters don't want smart people they want someone who will make sure men and women marry only and not those gay people And they want to own your body in the bedroom and after until you give birth, then they want nothing to do with that childs education, health or welfare

[YvonneCa]

39. We should not be blind to the threat...and I agree, she is...

...a threat. She's a threat for the reasons you state, and also because she is a distraction that the Repubs need from issues. I loved this line:


" The media seems to adore her. Considering that they are owned by the repukes, it could make her appeal to the brain-dead even stronger. " Appeal to the brain-dead. :7

[kurth_]

47. Complacency is deadly

You just can't take anything for granted in this election.

[melody]

48. We're talking about different things

No one is complacent. But the best way to keep from being complacent is to remain positive and directed.
Edited because I didn't re-read the thing first.

[tsuki]

49. But, I was with some friends, some of whom are or were, Republican.

They are as afraid of her as I am. We don't want this woman anywhere near the Button. She appears to be one of those rapture-ready looney tunes that would hit the button to get taken to the busom of Jeebus.

They are writing in Ron Paul.

[samuraiguppy]

50. are the fundies

smart enough to figure out how to vote? I am sure half of them can't even read.

[inna]

56. this really says it all... (see link)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3941092&mesg_id=3941092

[tavalon]

59. I'll admit I'm surprised she's still in

My vote was on Sunday (today) and there isn't any indication that saner minds have prevailed.