I. I Love a Mystery Those who have been following my journals, know that Sarah Palin did not appear on the political scene unannounced. She has been promoted on the internet for the job of Republican VP, based upon a deal which has been in the works since last year. The bargain so slick it shows her ready to lead the United States? Let TransCanada Company build a gas pipeline from the Northern Slopes in Alaska and have the state of Alaska
pay them half a billion dollars up front to do it. http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/2008/08/breaking-senate-authorizes-palins.htmlhttp://thepinkflamingo.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/7/23/3807197.htmlThe screwy part of this story is the half billion dollar cash bribe
to TransCanada. Consider the strange and sordid tale of the gas pipeline. Sen. Ted Stevens is under indictment for taking bribes from VECO, so that company would be awarded the privilege of building the gas pipeline. A second group of companies, BP and Conoco, which actually drill for natural gas in Alaska, lobbied the previous governor, because
they wanted to build the pipeline. And when they were shut out of the deal, they went ahead and started construction on their own pipeline anyway. The final bidder, TransCanada, was essentially awarded the pipeline at its inception by newly elected Governor Palin, because she appointed a TransCanada lobbyist, Marty Rutherford to direct the task force assigned to complete the gas pipeline project. Among Rutherford’s first acts----she stripped oil companies of their North Slopes oil leases so that TransCanada would be able to build a gas pipeline on those lands (these companies are now in court suing the state) and then she surprised no one by declaring early in 2008 that only TransCanada qualified to build the pipeline. What did come as a surprise was TransCanada’s demand.
They wanted half a billion dollars up front.
Even more surprising----the state of Alaska legislature voted to give it to them. Keep in mind that VECO was willing to hand out bribes to get the deal and BP and Conoco were so eager to build it that they have gone ahead and started building one anyway. If I were a frugal state governor, I might chose to wait and see what kind of progress BP and Conoco make. But Sarah Palin could not wait to sign with TransCanada. Why? Was it because they really needed that infusion of cash?
http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/09/sarah_palin_spe.phphttp://www.dailygotham.com/blog/dan_jacoby/the_real_sarah_palinhttp://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=15704546335&topic=5106 II. Lessons From Enron Before I go any farther, I want to go back. There were two tip offs (at least to me) that Enron was on the verge of collapse. First, Jeff Skilling quit. No wunderkid quits a successful cash cow. So, I had my eye on George W. Bush’s biggest campaign donor (I am sure that a lot of Democrats did) when the Republican House past that crazy piece of post 9/11 legislation giving a handful of companies, including Enron, an immediate infusion of cash as an “economic stimulus package”.
This Alaska gas pipeline deal reminds me of that House Republican bill. It is an immediate infusion of cash into a company which has posted profits that are in excess of those posted by similar companies. A company which has been busy expanding and buying and building---and which has run into a bunch of nasty, unexpected roadblocks on its way to Oz.
The gas pipeline itself will not turn a profit for a decade. And it has been described as a risky venture.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2008/08/05/alaskan-pipeline-offers-downside-for-transcanada-bondholders.aspx Bondholders should be scared, according to Laurie Conheady, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.
“We believe there is little, if any, upside for TransCanada PipeLines’ bondholders in this announcement or the prospect of TransCanada building the pipeline,” he said. “On the contrary, we see the potential for significant downside risk for the debt providers as the company moves to develop the pipeline project.”
At last guess, the price tag rings in at US$26-billion. But many are already predicting US$30-billion. Others are also noting a projects such as this pipeline regularly run over budget.
“To put the magnitude of the proposed pipeline into perspective, TransCanada’s Corp.’s total market capitalization currently stands at about $23-billion,” he said.
That does not sound too good. Not if you consider that two of the major natural gas drillers are building their own pipeline and may
never use TransCanada’s pipeline. The only positive to the deal is the short run acquisition of half a billion dollars in hard, cold cash.
There are a few other things about TransCanada that remind me of Enron. The passage below contains a lot of financial-eze that I do not speak, but the general gist of it sets off alarm bells, because it seems to say that TransCanada is doing much better financially than it should be doing when you compare it to other similar companies in its market, which makes me wonder
Is it doing as well as it says it is doing? http://ezinearticles.com/?A-Financial-Analysis-of-TransCanada-Corp&id=580021 Nevertheless, while location may differ, many of the companies in the gas utility industry have similar business models when compared to TransCanada. However, what differentiates this company from the rest of the industry is strong historical and predicted fundamentals. Starting from the top line, over a trailing twelve month basis, TransCanada, according to Capital IQ, has seen year over year quarterly revenue growth exceed 27%. Comparing this number to rivals such as Sempra Energy or Kinder Morgan, and respective numbers of -10% and -8.50% will show up. Clearly there is a difference in demand and pricing between these companies. However, the question to now ask is if these numbers are sustainable. Probably the two most important statistics to look at when determining to purchase stocks are in favor of TransCanada are operating margins and gross margins. As a five year average, according to Reuters, TransCanada sees its gross margins to increase by 75.14% and operating margins to increase by 35.52%. Looking at the industry's respective averages of 33.53% and 14.64%, TransCanada has phenomenal numbers. Even compared to some of the aforementioned rivals, this company performed much better. National Grid only saw a 23.74% increase in operating margins, while Sempra Energy only saw a 13.12% increase for that same statistic. And drilling down these numbers past more interest, tax, and other costs will still show that net income remains strong for this company.
As a five year average, TransCanada saw a net profit margin of about 17.18%. This number is above the industry average of 9.11% and respective numbers from National Grid, Sempra Energy, and Kinder Morgan. However, many investors may wonder if much of this growth transcends to an undervalued status for this equity. Looking at the forward P/E ratio for TransCanada, while the number is below the trailing multiple and the industry average of about 29.47, the multiple is still a bit higher than companies like National Grid or Sempra. In addition, TransCanada's other multiples such as price to sales (2.64), enterprise value to revenue (4.24), and enterprise value to EBITDA (9.836) are all either above or very similar to the aforementioned companies. Thus, I unfortunately cannot label TransCanada as a value stock. However, it is important to realize that this company has amazing historical growth and predicted growth. If these numbers are sustainable and nothing serious happens to the company legally or naturally, the company will continue to see higher EPS estimates. Then as more investors see the benefits of owning this company, the share price of TransCanada will continue to escalate with a strong positive correlation like it has seen over the past four years.
Funny he should mention legal matters….But more on that later.
III. Recent History of TransCanada TransCanada is a major energy sector player. I can say this with confidence, because they are the only company out of Canada that got a
private, secret meeting with Dick Cheney.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/cheney_energy_task_force.htmlNote that Cheney also tried to persuade the Alaska legislature that it should go along with Sen. Ted Stevens’ plans to build a gas pipeline, back when he was first floating the idea for his buddies at VECO.
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/index.php?view=article&catid=1%3Atalk-of-the-tundra&id=55%3AtrumpedAs I describe in my recent journals, employees working for the firm which TransCanada uses as lobbyists have served as bundlers for all the major Republican presidential candidates and for Hillary Clinton. One of John McCain's long time fund raisers in Virginia is employed by TransCanada's U.S. lobbying firm. The company is definitely involved in U.S. politics as well as business.
In the last eight years, TransCanada has been growing and acquiring at a remarkable rate as they seek to control the pipeline market in the North American continent and to move into the electricity manufacturing market in the U.S. A lot of this has been accomplished through buying, some of this through building. All of this is expensive. Below are links about acquisitions from 2002-2007.
http://www.transcanada.com/company/acquisitions.htmlhttp://mergertalk.blogspot.com/2008/02/transcanada-corporation-mulling.htmlhttp://www.transcanada.com/news/2007_news/20070222.htmlhttp://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/financial/stock_news/transcanada-closes-ravenswood-generating-station-a.shtmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN0343835320080903Here is a recent MSNBC financial report with a second quarter income of $324 million:
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?symbol=US:TRP&feed=MW&date=20080731&id=8967201Now, I am not a business type, but I can see how it would be easy to make money with the above type of company. Buy smaller energy firms that are already solvent, collect their revenues and you keep turning out a profit. Sounds very sensible. As your company acquires a larger share of the market, you can begin to set prices (monopoly effect) and then the real profits kick in.
However TransCanada is not just buying up other companies, power plants and existing pipeline. It is also
building pipeline. Some very expensive pipeline. I wish someone with some accounting experience would analyze the MSNBC data under “Financing Activities”, because it seems to me (who knows little of such things) that in 2007 TransCanada was spending its money investing in more assets to enlarge its empire and in 2008 it is throwing its money into a project called
Keystone which I will describe below, a great big money sink which has required it to look for funds in creative ways.
IV. Keystone, a Great Big Fat Money Sink for TransCanada Crash course in Alberta oilsands. There is oil in them there sands, but it is filthy and it generates three times as much green house gas to extract it and it costs a heck of a lot more to refine it. Therefore, Alberta, Canada did not experience its Black Gold rush until Bush-Cheney succeeded in pushing crude oil prices sky high.
The biggest source of U.S. oil imports is Canada. And now that oil prices are so high, Alberta’s dirty oilsands oil is a viable export to the U.S. There is just one problem. The nation’s mayors---and Barack Obama---passed a resolution this summer calling for a boycott of Alberta’s filthy crude.
http://www.oilweek.com/news.asp?ID=16986 Jun 23, 2008 5:00:00 PM MST
U.S. mayors pass resolution urging cities not use oilsands derived fuel (US-Mayors-Oilsands)
Mayors in the United States have joined the fight to reduce the use of gasoline made with oil from Alberta´s oilsands.
A resolution passed Monday at their annual conference in Miami urges mayors to forbid the use of oilsands-derived gasoline in municipal vehicles.
"The hope of the resolution was that we would support federal legislation that prohibits governments from using fuel substitutes that are worse than the ones that we´re trying to substitute for," said Mayor Kitty Piercy of Eugene, Ore., the resolution´s main sponsor.
It was co-sponsored by a group of mayors from communities as large as San Francisco and as small as Waukesha, Wis.
They took direct aim at Alberta´s oilsands in the text, saying "the production of tarsands oil from Canada emits approximately three times the carbon dioxide pollution per barrel as does conventional oil."
Canadian representatives of the Alberta oil industry were furious. They vowed to load their dirty crude on tankers and take it elsewhere. However, TransCanada has a problem. It has invested a ton of money into a project to build a oil pipeline from Alberta all the way to Port Arthur, Texas (in conjunction with Conoco-Philips) to transport dirty oilsands oil so that it can be refined down here. All the money that it would normally spend acquiring new companies and pipeline in a year has gone into the Keystone pipeline project. It is severely short on funds (I am betting that is the reason for the public stock offering and the loan) and it can not afford an American president who is negative on a pipeline which still does not have FERC approval.
http://www.ranchers.net/forum/about25821.htmlThis site includes a newspaper article with a general summary of the Keystone project and how it impacts landowners, many of whom have had their land rights stripped via eminent domain.
V. Keystone Headache No. 1 : Dakota’s Environmental Lawsuit Remember I mentioned something about
legal problems.
http://www.plainsman.com/V2_news_articles.php?heading=0&story_id=4545&page=72 Environmental groups are suing the State Department in North Dakota to halt the 1,980-mile Keystone oil pipeline, saying the government did not fully investigate the risks of leaks and other damage to rural areas.
The lawsuit was filed this week in Washington, D.C., by the New York-based Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., the Dakota Resource Council of Dickinson and Dakota Rural Action of Brookings, S.D. It seeks to halt the project until the environmental impacts of the pipeline are addressed.
Snip
The lawsuit says the project will lead to “increased air and water pollution for residents of the Midwest and other states.” It says the pipeline will supply refineries with extra heavy sour crude oil extracted from Canadian tar sands and could release more greenhouse gases and other pollution.
Snip
In a statement announcing the lawsuit, the resource groups said landowners in North Dakota and South Dakota continue to fight pipeline siting and eminent domain proceedings but find themselves “outgunned by TransCanada’s resources.”
“To extract this low-quality oil from tar sands, oil companies are burning through reserves of natural gas our children will need one day,” the statement said. “Dredging up dirtier and dirtier oil to fuel inefficient vehicles is like washing the dishes with scotch, and the damage to our rural way of life keeps mounting.”
VI. Keystone Headache No. 2: Lubicon Lake Indian Nation Land Rights in Alberta vs. TransCanada The United Nations has had to get medieval on Canada’s ass before over matters like this. Trampling all over the rights of native peoples in the pursuit of the almighty (Canadian) dollar. And you thought that all Canadians were liberal, fun loving folks? Sounds like some of them would be right at home in Texas.
http://oilsandstruth.org/index.php?q=lubicon-fight-proposed-transcanada-pipeline TORONTO - The Lubicon Lake Indian Nation in northern Alberta is
gearing up to fight a proposed jumbo pipeline that would carry natural
gas from the Mackenzie Valley in the west to the oil sands
developments to the east.
The $983 million proposal follows a history of industrial development
across the unceded Lubicon territory that has left the 500-member Cree
nation impoverished, poisoned and disregarded by Canada and Alberta -
despite criticism about violations of their rights from two United
Nations committees.
''It's a devastating situation where there is all kinds of activity
around our traditional hunting and trapping areas,'' Lubicon Chief
Bernard Ominayak said when he traveled to Geneva two years ago. ''It's
polluting most of our waters - we have to haul our own water and we
can't eat the fish any more.''
Snip
KAIROS, a Canadian church group, has written to board chair S. Barry
Jackson to express deep concern on behalf of several religious
institutions that hold TransCanada shares.
''We are disturbed by the company's decision to proceed with an
application to the AUC for approval of the NCC project as is, without
having concluded discussions with the Lubicon Nation,'' wrote KAIROS
executive director Mary Corkery.
''Management's handling of this situation may constitute an
undisclosed and poorly managed risk to our investments,'' Corkery
stated, adding that ''this situation constitutes an unacceptable
response to a serious, internationally recognized human rights issue.''
Snip
In 2006, the U.N. Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
reiterated the Human Rights Committee's findings and urged Canada to
resume negotiations with the Lubicon, a call that was echoed by a U.N.
official who visited the Lubicon community of Little Buffalo last year.
Here is a letter from TransCanada investors calling the company to task for their treatment of the Lubicon:
http://www.tao.ca/~fol/pa/oilp/tcplp/po080223.htm This situation constitutes an unacceptable failure by management to adequately address a serious, internationally recognized human rights issue that pertains directly to the operations of the company. This is deeply troubling to us as shareholders."
VII. Keystone Headache No. 3: U.S. Conference of Mayors and Obama See above link. Being denounced as pushers of environmentally unfriendly oil is the kiss of death in the U.S. after
An Inconvenient Truth . It is no wonder the Canadian prime minister’s office used dirty tricks to try to discredit Barack Obama before the Ohio primaries. The prime minister or at least people in his office are probably working hand in hand with Canadian oil interests who want to see Bush-Cheney oil policies continue, so that Alberta can be polluted, exploited and the environment can be trashed just a little bit faster---all for the sake of some CEO’s pocketbook.
For the record, there are a lot of people in Canada and Alberta who are mad as hell and who do not want to take it anymore either.
VIII. Sept 4, 2008 Maybe TransCanada needs the half a billion to buy the land rights from the Lubicon and to pay their legal fees in the U.S. and to buy the land that is getting harder to seize if they are going to keep building this pipeline from Alberta to Port Arthur.
However, what good will the pipeline be, if the nation decides that it does not want extra green house gas producing fuel when it can switch to the use of more environmentally friendly energy sources? What will TransCanada do if Obama is elected and his FERC says “Thanks, but no thanks” to dirty oilsands crude?
Sept 4, 2008 is a significant date for the Keystone project.
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS127033+16-Jul-2008+MW20080716That is the date that bidding closed for binding contracts between it and oil extractors in Alberta to use its pipeline to transport crude down to Port Arthur. The above article came out this summer. The recommendation by the U.S. mayors and Obama probably made it difficult for TransCanada to sell those contracts. I wonder what getting Sarah Palin on the John McCain ticket did for their auction? I wonder how it affects their project's liability?
When Enron's house of cards was on the verge of collapse, it turned to Bush and Cheney, who abused their authority, enabling the rape of California through the the manufactured energy crisis on California at home and negotiating with the Taliban for a gas pipeline deal with Enron abroad.
Has TransCanada decided that the best way to shore itself up financially during this rocky time is to ally itself with John McCain and help install him in the White House along with their favorite governor? Will we see a TransCanada jet being used to ferry McCain lawyers back and forth for recounts in Ohio and Florida?
I hope not, because we do not need to stay dependent upon $4-5/gallon gasoline and the only way that TransCanada can stay solvent is if gas prices stay that high or higher and U.S. demand stays right where it is for the next ten years.