Oil futures touch $101/barrel today in after-hours trading.

[Hannah Bell]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080909/oil_prices.html


Peak oilers, where are you?

[slackmaster]

1. The Peak Oilers are at a bar getting trashed with the National Popular Vote people today

:hide:

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

3. and the sons of liberty

[postmanisu]

2. and fucking gas in my area went up 30 cents today

[slackmaster]

4. They probably started shipping "winter blend" to your area

Don't worry about it. The price will go up again in the spring when they switch back to "summer blend".

[endthewar]

37. Stop reminding me that beer prices might be going up!

:rofl:

[Arkansas Democrat]

6. Went up 20 cents here in my area!

[Speck Tater]

5. It may go as low as $75 before climbing to $300.

But the long term trend has nowhere to go but up as growing global demand continues to outstrip global supplies.

[Hannah Bell]

8. or $800, or $1000, or $1,000,000.

[Warpy]

13. Yes and no

It all depends on big countries like the US and China and what they're willing to put into alternative energy infrastructure.

So far, China seems to be taking the situation seriously. If we manage to boot the oily GOP out of office, we might do the same.

It will take a long time and some things will probably always need petroleum, but a lot of research is maturing and waiting only for seed money to apply it.

If the oily GOP cheats its way back in, this country is over. It will be left in the dust, hooked on idiotically expensive oil while the rest of the world has moved on.

[Subdivisions]

21. Jim Cramer (CNBC) just said the reason for the oil price crash is because

demand from China is down. In fact, demand is down here in the US too. Less demand, lower price.

[Warpy]

29. He's full of shit, as usual

It's down, as are other commodities, because hedge funds created a commodities bubble late last spring. The funds made their money as Johnny come lately little guys tried to get in on the action too late and are getting burned now.

They were also betting that Stupid would start another war. When that failed to materialize as predicted, they grabbed their money and ran.

[JDPriestly]

30. The reason for the lower oil price is the upcoming election.

I predicted this many, many months ago right here on DU. This is an election ploy. Prices will go back up after the election.

It's the supply side theory. Increase the supply and prices go down. They've simply held back supply. Now they have a surplus and they say that demand has decreased. Of course, it decreased because prices were too high. This is supposed to help Republicans, and it probably will.

[sandnsea]

40. Simpler than that

Rich people screw with the market. They put money in and prime the pump. When they need it to go down, they pull money out. I'm convinced making money is nothing more than following the latest "bubble". We'll be back to interest earning vehicles pretty soon, like we were in the 70's. Whatever the little guy manages to tuck away from their meager wages, the rich get back through investment losses or end of life care.

[JDPriestly]

61. That's also correct.

[Hannah Bell]

57. So they rig world oil prices for the US presidential elections?

I think you're confusing oil with US gasoline prices.

Oil is traded on a world market, & not sold to small consumer/voters. In the 2000 & 2004 elections, oil prices went up before the elections, not down.

[JDPriestly]

60. The stakes are very high for the major oil producers in the Middle

East. Saudi Arabia likes Republicans. Democrats press on human rights. Saudis don't like that.

[pampango]

59. Gas prices almost always peak in the summer and hit bottom in the winter.

That means they are going down in the fall (including election time) and going up in the spring.

Since 2000 the biggest gas prices declines from the summer peak to early November have come in the nonelection years of 2001 and 2005. Gas prices did fall by 27% in 2006 during that season, but by on 1% in 2002 and 2% in 2004.

[JDPriestly]

62. That's true too, and the demand for gasoline was particularly low this year

in the U.S. because of the high prices. But still, the elections are the major factor in the extreme fluctuation this year. The prices will start going back up after the elections. Just watch.

[Subdivisions]

7. Checkin' in. n/t

[Hannah Bell]

10. thought your contingent could explain the 30% drop in prices over

a little more than 1 month.

y'all were so good at explaining the price hikes.

oh, & could you explain why oil & gas futures are dropping, but price at the pump isn't.

[Subdivisions]

14. You are a smart person. If you've done the same research I've done and (Edited)

have come to a different conclusion, then so be it. So far, you have demonstrated that at the very least you don't have a firm grasp of the definition of "peak oil". If you haven't done the research yet, then that would be a good place to start.

As for the price, It really has nothing to do with geophysical limitations. Yes, there was speculation involved and your research will bear that out. However, oil is a finite resource which is currently, and will forever be, in declining production.


EDITED TO ADD: Above I said "...nothing to do with geophysical limitations". I need to quantify that since I've already said it. a) MOST people have no idea or concept of "peak oil", not even most people working in the oil patch. b) There are people who have heard of peak oil, like you, who don't want to hear it and discount it as folly. c) There are relative few who know of it and believe it has or will happen on a global scale. The reason I said "...nothing to do with geophysical limitations" is because those people from groups a and b control the vast amount of oil trading plays on the markets and if they don't know of or don't believe in peak oil, then they of course wouldn't be pricing oil based on it. At some point, when the geological constraints make the situation obvious, they will either know and believe in peak oil or they will go bust and fling themselves off tall buildings.

One more thing... In 1999, oil was $10 per barrel. In 2002, it was $15 per barrel. In 2006, it rose to just $50 per barrel. Two years later, here we are and it's twice the price it was in 2006. And just 6 weeks ago, it was three times the 2006 price. Now, either all that has been engineered by booshco being in office, and therefore you and I are dumbfucks for taking it, or the price is reflecting supply pressures, contrived or geological. If contrived, then, again, you and I are dumbfucks. So, bottom line, either oil really is reaching its geological limits, or you and I are dumbfucks. Either way, we both lose.

[Occulus]

41. Wow, somebody has a dog in the hunt n/t

[Skittles]

35. what is there to fucking explain?

there have been plenty of predictions that oil prices would go down until the election

[Hannah Bell]

50. Does oil go down before presidential elections? Well, let's see if that's true historically.

Oil's traded on a WORLD market, you know.

http://www.econstats.com/fut/xeiad_em1.htm

Spot Prices: US Cushing, Europe Brent


2004-01 , 33.16000, , 29.53000,
2004-02 , 36.08000, , 32.94000,
2004-03 , 35.75000, , 32.29000,
2004-04 , 37.31000, , 35.23000,
2004-05 , 39.90000, , 37,
2004-06 , 36.92000, , 33.22000,
2004-07 , 43.72000, , 41.47000,
2004-08 , 42.23000, , 39.80000,
2004-09 , 49.56000, , 47.76000
2004-10 , 51.78000, , 48.16000
2004-11 , 49.16000, , 44.23000,
2004-12 , 43.36000, , 40.38000,

2000-01 , 27.65000, , 27.08000
2000-02 , 30.57000, , 29.01000
2000-03 , 26.86000, , 23.98000
2000-04 , 25.71000, , 23.79000,
2000-05 , 29.03000, , 29.64000
2000-06 , 32.44000, , 31.58000
2000-07 , 27.50000, , 25.30000
2000-08 , 33.09000, , 35.08000
2000-09 , 30.87000, , 28.42000,
2000-10 , 32.70000, , 30.15000,
2000-11 , 33.61000, , 32.53000
2000-12 , 26.72000, , 22.58000


Nope, the price of oil doesn't seem to drop before US elections. Seems to be an old wive's tale/urban legend type thing.

[Extend a Hand]

9. WHEEEE!! $101 we're saved!!!!

http://www.postcarbon.org/oil_price_falls_peak_oil_non_problem


This scenario is hinted at in the second sentence of the Hirsch Report, which says, “As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically….”

Volatility is in some ways an even worse problem than high prices, because sustained high oil prices make long-term investments in alternative energy sources and public transportation look sensible—whereas periodically collapsing oil prices discourage such investments.

Now, as the US economy is reeling, partly as a result of recent high oil costs (there’s also a bit of bother with banks, mortgages, and credit), there is the likelihood that urgent concerns on the part of families and policy makers to actually do something about dangerous oil dependency may wane if the downturn in gas pump prices continues. And of course politicians in Washington are doing their part to dampen the flames by insisting that all we need to do is rein in speculators or drill in protected areas and the good times of cheap gasoline can roll on forever.

What everyone needs to remember is this: the fundamental cause of the recent oil price spike has not gone away. Global demand for oil is still increasing; supply isn’t. The current brief respite from the hammering effect of new oil price records being set almost daily is not an occasion to go back to sleep, but an opportunity to consolidate efforts toward energy conservation and transition.

[Hannah Bell]

11. >>Global demand for oil is still increasing>> is it?

let's see the numbers.

or should we just believe what pundits tell us to?

[CatholicEdHead]

22. China is still on reduced demand due to the Paralympics

They shut down in August and September for the Olympics and Paralympics to clear the skies around Beijing. Also people in the US are driving less and summer is over.

[Extend a Hand]

32. here you go

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3720

[Hannah Bell]

53. Those are production charts. & forecasts, to boot.

[Skittles]

36. LOL

you really are naive, aren't you?

[Hannah Bell]

56. yes, so terribly naive that I know in 2006, "booming" indian consumption

= + 6000 barrels/day (+.6%), while us consumption dropped 213,000 barrels/day (-1.3%).

So naive I know the price of oil doesn't drop in election years.

So naive I know China produces 1/3-1/2 of its own oil.

Not sophisticated like you, who gives me production forecasts when I ask for recent consumption data.

[Hannah Bell]

42. brent spot price at $99.61 tonight....

[Subdivisions]

48. And your point is? If people don't know about peak oil or they

don't believe in it, they won't be bidding oil based on geological limitations. Will they?

See my post #14.

[Hannah Bell]

49. opec just cut production tonight...to keep the price up...

[depakid]

12. Peak oil models PREDICT volatility

Just as we're seeing with these spikes and valleys. The trick is to follow the moving average over time.

Of course, you'll hear things like the OP from global warming deniers too, when their local area (or region) experiences an "unusual" cold spell.

Since they can't grasp the longer term nature of the problems or the science behind it, they focus on specific data points and conclude that "wow that Al Gore and those climate scientists- they're so wrong!"

[cliffordu]

15. The oil companies are injecting a little extra into the system to lower the price

for the election....It will improve the price at the pump just enough for McCain to say the surge in rhetoric about drilling is working and lowering prices automagially.

Expect five bucks a gallon after the election.

[Subdivisions]

17. The oil companies control just 5% of the world's oil reserves. n/t

[cliffordu]

18. And 100% of the refineries that serve the US market.

[Subdivisions]

19. Yet, you bend over and take it. n/t

[cliffordu]

20. Not me. I spent ZERO dollars on gasoline this year. YOU take it.

[Subdivisions]

23. Then I stand corrected and change the word "you" to the word

"we". Congratulations! I used to used copious amounts of oil. Now, if I use as much in a month as I used to in a day, then it would be a surprise to me.

More people should find ways to reduce or eliminate their use of fossil fuels. Every littl bit helps alleviate the pressure on oil supplies and eases pressure on the environment.

[cliffordu]

26. Thanks- I had to purposely set up my life like this. I hate oil and oil companies

and the fucking countries that we have to placate to get the oil.


It will kill us all before it's over.

[Extend a Hand]

34. although really, unless you manage to avoid any products

that are transported or fabricated using oil, you are still 'using oil' just not nearly as much.

[cliffordu]

38. I am completely aware of that. I guess I should give up since you caught my

hypocrisy....

:sarcasm:


My reduction in oil use is coupled with a refusal to buy anything new from china,

anything new made of plastic. No synthetic materials at all.

I try to buy as much locally grown food I can.

I have minimized my oil usage on all levels I can do so.

I do not willingly use petroleum.

[Occulus]

44. You pay for more petroleum product usage than you think you do

In fact, you're paying for it every time you buy anything.

[cliffordu]

45. And why wouldn't I know that?

[Occulus]

52. You sound as if you think that's not the case n/t

[cliffordu]

55. really?

[Occulus]

43. Gasoline, yes, but petroleum products overall?

I'd say you used as much as anyone else who doesn't own a car, drive, or take a cab or a bus.

That's quite a bit, actually. You couldn't possibly be posting here otherwise.

Why are you posting online at all, if you're so against the use of petroleum products for purposes other than simple lubrication of mechanical parts?

[cliffordu]

46. hmm....

"Why are you posting online at all, if you're so against the use of petroleum products for purposes other than simple lubrication of mechanical parts?"

What the fuck are you talking about???

read post #38.

[Occulus]

51. "I do not willingly use petroleum."

You lied?

(You're still posting here, and you don't have to do so...)

The fact is, you do willingly use petroleum, not only when you're posting, but when you're on your PC, or using nearly any modern electronic device.

You can't get away from it yet, and neither can I. Don't say you don't willingly use petroleum products- it just isn't true at all.

[cliffordu]

54. I have a used computer, a fanless pc that runs 12 volts....

We use hydroelectric dams for electricity where I live.....

Still don't _willingly_ use petroleum.


BUT I GUESS:

Because I ride my (used, steel) bicycle on roads made of asphalt, no matter how hard I try, I am a liar in your world.

I can live with that.

[DainBramaged]

16. Peak oil, the sky is falling, lesbians on the TVs.

No matter how much we hope and pray our dependence on oil goes down, what is going to replace it's use in all of the chemicals and plastics we need to sustain our daily lives?

Anyone?

You in the back???

How about you??


I thought so.

[slackmaster]

58. Large-scale mining of municipal landfills will become a reality within one generation

Count on it.

[bobbert]

24. OPEC increased output to lower prices, they wanted them around $100/barrel

looks like they're going to keep the supply high for at least the next few months, so it might go down a little until they decide to suffocate the supply again... Although it looks like Saudi Arabia doesn't want to slow down their output

[bronxiteforever]

25. Until November me thinks

[dysfunctional press]

27. if the world economy EVER gets going again, the oil will start gettting sucked up faster than ever..

and the prices will again reflect that whole dwindling supply/increased demand thing.

[radfringe]

28. then why is gas at the pumps still $3.60 in my area?

When oil went "up" to to $106/barrel, gas at the pumps were $2-something

we're getting screwed, and because it's "down" below $4 we're happy?

[bemildred]

31. Bubbles pop.

Peak oil is not incompatible with a bubble, or two, or maybe more than that. And bubbles pop. And that is what is occurring right now.

[lastliberalintexas]

33. Hurricane Ike will take care of that "problem"

With all the rigs in the Gulf and the refineries along the Texas coast, they'll have a very convenient excuse to raise prices. If they don't go up in the next couple of weeks, it just shows me that they are artificially low because of the election.

[Initech]

39. The peak oil people are finding new and improved ways to trash Sarah Palin

[Subdivisions]

47. I couldn't give a shit about palin. lonestarnot says she'll be forgotten soon enough. n/t

[entanglement]

63. The economic Peak will precede (and probably preclude) the geophysical Peak