Is it true that Gov. Perry urged Houston residents NOT to evacuate?

[Hugabear]

I don't give a shit if the Hurricane Rita evacuation was a clusterfuck. South Florida was able to evacuate several MILLION people a few years ago in the face of a major hurricane, and we had a lot LESS evacuation routes available. How about coming up with a fucking evacuation plan that works?

[babylonsister]

1. Very true; they only encouraged evacuation in certain zones.

My zone isn't in that mix, so that's good news, maybe.

[Hugabear]

5. Even a category 2 hurricane is nothing to fuck with

Hurricane Charley passed through Orlando as a Cat 2 hurricane a few years ago and did a pretty decent amount of damage. The eye of the storm passed within a few miles of my house, we had 105mph winds battering our front door threatening to blow it in. Many Orlando residents were without power for weeks, there were trees down everywhere, tornadoes ripped through a neighborhood just down the street from our house.

[JeanGrey]

12. The problem is the surge with this is going to be far higher

than a usual Cat. 2. They are already saying the storm surge will be equal to a 5, as bad or greater than Katrina.

[Virginia Dare]

63. Charley was nothing compared to this monster..

this is just really frightening.

[Hugabear]

88. Charley was a Cat 4 when it hit southwest Florida - much of south Florida is swampland

It surprised many people that Charley maintained much of its strength as it passed over Florida. Makes sense, though, since there are lots of swamps and lakes in Florida for a hurricane to sustain itself. Just wondering, how much swampland is there in southeastern Texas?

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

95. Please keep safe ((((((((babylonsister and family)))))))!!!!!!

[JeanGrey]

2. CHECK THIS OUT

Dr. Jeff Masters: "Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita."

Gawd. And people are staying..................

[Hugabear]

8. They're being TOLD to stay put

I just heard on the news that they're telling Houston residents that unless they're in a low-lying area or mobile home, they need to stay put and not clog up the roads.

WTF. EVACUATE EARLIER, DUMBFUCK.

[JeanGrey]

18. I know. Another local government cluster fuck. God

I can't believe it.

[Dreamer Tatum]

28. The Houston area is ENORMOUS

Houston can't empty out - there's nowhere for 4 million people to go! Furthermore, as big as Ike is, and as much damage as it will do, Houston is too big to be destroyed by a hurricane. People along I-45 dow to Galveston, and other low-lying areas, should be long gone, but I don't see why anyone in North Houston would evacuate. It's going to be bad, no doubt, but you can't evacuate Houston like you can evacuate New Orleans.

[Hugabear]

32. Sorry, I don't buy that.

Texas is a pretty damned big state, and there are multiple highways leading out. This is exactly why evacuation plans are so necessary, but rarely taken seriously by government leaders.

[Dreamer Tatum]

42. It would be easier to evacuate Massachusetts

Sorry, having lived through a number of storms, it just isn't possible or even desirable to vacate the entire city.

[tammywammy]

44. There are 3.4 million+ people in Harris County ALONE

That's not including the Beaumont/Pt Arthur area, Galveston, Baytown, etc areas that are super low-lying and have to evacuate.


And there are evacuation routes. But when you try evacuating over 4 million people within 12 hours, there's only so much the highways can move at a time.

During Rita when Houston and the Beaumont/Pt Arthur area evacuated at the same time, it took my family 25 hours to make the normally 5.5 hour trip to the DFW area.

[Hugabear]

45. That's the problem. "4 million people within 12 hours"

When you're dealing with a major disaster like this, you need to start evacuating long before that.

[Dreamer Tatum]

46. Again, Houston is as big as Massachusetts

This storm is looking a lot like Alicia - very dangerous, tremendous damage, and certain hardship, but nothing to evacuate all of Houston over. It's just too big.

[tammywammy]

49. You should call up the governor and mayors and give them your expertise

[JeanGrey]

50. CNN just said they estimate 20,000 will stay on

Galveston Island. The death toll could be enormous.

[tammywammy]

51. Then other than the city officials, which I understand

They're idiots. Stupid people do stupid things, including staying behind when they had a chance to get out.

[JeanGrey]

55. I am just hoping that there couldn't be that many people

left on Galveston Island. If so, wow.

[bdamomma]

59. OMG another Katrina.

[JeanGrey]

54. They just said they expect 80 mph winds in Harris County.

[wickerwoman]

102. China evacuated more than 2 million from Zhejiang province before Typhoon Wipha

No muss, no fuss.

Helps to have decent rail lines and a plan in place. They routinely evacuate millions of people in Fujian and Guangdong during typhoon season.

Those are some pretty damn poor people dealing with limited infrastructure capabilities. But fortunately, the poor folks in China are the same color as the people in the government.

[RoyGBiv]

48. Believe it ...

If we'd started on Monday, maybe.

It can take 2 hours to drive 15 miles in normal rush hour traffic, which is nothing close to an attempt to move out 4 million people.

[Virginia Dare]

65. Houston is too big to be destroyed?

how do you figure? From what I'm hearing Houston has never faced anything like this.

[Dreamer Tatum]

69. Hurricane Alicia, 1983

Direct hit. 3 million or so in the Houston/Galveston area, 22 souls killed.

Most indications are that Ike resembles Alicia in several regards.

[Virginia Dare]

72. That was bad enough..

I certainly hope this one is no worse.

[Hugabear]

74. No major metropolitan area has ever had a direct hit from a Cat 4 or 5 storm

I think Hurricane Andrew was the closest we've ever come to finding out what would happen if a Cat 5 storm ever made a direct hit on a major metro downtown area.

Katrina was a Cat 3 when it made landfall, I believe, and it hit to the east of New Orleans. Remember, we were all breathing a sigh of relief until the levees started failing, and the city began flooding.

[Virginia Dare]

78. These storms become very unpredictable just before landfall..

I suppose that is what has forecasters so worried. A Cat 5 at landfall would be an epic disaster for sure. Even a 4 would be pretty bad at this point.

[Hugabear]

85. This is what really worries me, and leads to the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" complex

Let's say that Hurricane Ike weakens significantly before landfall, and comes ashore as "only" a minor Cat 2 storm and the storm surge isn't as bad as feared. That's great news, but then the next time a major storm is looming, some residents will say "Big deal, they said the same things last time and look what happened".

This is exactly what happened with Hurricane Francis a few years ago. For awhile, it looked like it would smash into Central Florida as a Cat 4 or 5 storm, which would have caused devastation even in the Orlando area. I hauled ass a few days before it hit, and it wound up slowing down and weakening significantly. It still dumped tons of rain, and caused severe flooding in areas, but it was nowhere near as bad as originally thought.

[LynneSin]

3. Well there isn't an RNC convention going on right now

So the news won't be as focused as it was during Gustav

[supernova]

4. It's not that hard

to have an evacuation route. We have the same here for the Outer Banks.

We have 40 and other major highways leading away from the coast reverse the eastbound lanes so that all available lanes head west, in our case. Roads are clearly marked EVACUATION ROUTE. It's simple. It's efficient and it works.

Why is TX having such a hard time?

[JeanGrey]

7. Here's a report from NOLA:

Reporting from NOLA:

Really, REALLLLLLLLLY freakin' windy around here. The gusts are insane. I keep expecting the trees to snap.


It rains on and off, and has been for the past almost 24 hours now. Surge is killin' us. They've closed all the schools in the areas, mandatory evacs in some low lying places. Someone driving across the causeway bridge (20 mile long bridge over Lake Pont. connecting North and South Shore) last night said that the water was splashing over the rails. I can't even imagine what it looks like now.

So it's even bad in New Orleans..................

[MountainLaurel]

47. Add in there

Possible tornadoes and a number of roads closed due to flooding. My office actually closed because some people weren't able to get to work due to gusts and flooding.

[Virginia Dare]

66. BOSSHOG in Southern MS said they were getting their asses kicked..

he said the winds were very high. I haven't seen him post after that, maybe he lost power.

[LanternWaste]

25. Although we're (Texans) more often than not prepared for these events...

"Why is TX having such a hard time?"

Although we're (Texans) more often than not prepared for these events, I think the major reason he's asking Houston area residents on higher ground (and much of Houston is app. 50' above water level according to local CBS new affiliate last night) to stay put is because there's app. five million residents.

I don't think the highway system (even with the contraflow lanes open) can effectively handle that number. :shrug:

But then again, I've never been in a situation in which evacuation of a city was ever a question, so I'm hardly any type of expert...

[Dreamer Tatum]

29. The Houston MSA is twice the size of Connecticut in square miles

Easy to say "evacuate," impossible to do.

[JeanGrey]

31. Not if you leave early enough.

[Dreamer Tatum]

38. Houston has been hit by hurricanes before - it's not their first barbecue

Anyone with even a passing familiarity with the Houston area would chuckle at the prospect of evacuating the entire MSA. It's just not feasible, period, paragraph.

People from low-lying areas should be out, but I can't see someone in Tomball packing up and getting out because of a hurricane. There have simply been too many bad storms that have hit, with plenty of destruction, but with very little loss of human life.

People in the exurbs packing up to leave are going to jam the roads for people who DESPERATELY need to get out. That seems to be the message: if you live in, say, Dickinson, then you need the roads as clear as possible so you can high-tail it north.

[Hugabear]

53. I live in metro Orlando, and I evacuated a day ahead of Hurricane Francis

At the time when I got my ass out of Florida, Francis was a monster Cat 4 hurricane, with the potential to be a Cat 5 heading directly towards Orlando. I saw the damage that a Cat 2 hurricane did just a few weeks prior, so I wasn't taking chances with a Cat 4 or 5. As it turns out, Francis stalled just off the coast, and came on shore much weaker than forecast.

I'm still glad that I evacuated, you can't second guess these things.

[Virginia Dare]

67. From everything they're saying NOTHING like this..

sounds even worse than Andrew in terms of severity of damage. I hope all these dire predictions are wrong.

[Dreamer Tatum]

71. The weather analysts at Houston Chronicle seem to think Ike resembles Alicia

Which was awful, but nothing like Katrina.

This one is bad, and it might level some areas and flood many others, but thousands, hundreds, or even scores dead? No.

[JeanGrey]

75. The storm surge is predicted to equal Katrina.

I just saw some moron in a bear suit. :crazy:

[supernova]

82. I hope that you're still around on Sunday

You seem determined to minimize this thing.

[Virginia Dare]

84. Comparison of Alicia and Ike...

Alicia:



Ike:

[supernova]

89. Thank you Virginia Dare

for that visual.

[Dreamer Tatum]

94. Yeah, this one is awful. Hope the coastal areas have vacated. eom

[JeanGrey]

98. I just read 15 people trapped on the roof of a church on

Boliva? It said they have tied themselves together. They can't get to them.

[Dreamer Tatum]

100. BAD idea to tether themselves...they did that in 1900

This one is worse than anything that ever hit Galveston. There will be corpses, which is a shame. I hope no one with children stayed.

[AZ Criminal JD]

96. Call the office and offer to take over.

You are obviously an expert.

[JeanGrey]

97. Well I can sure bet you I wouldn't be there. I'd been gone

two days ago.

[AZ Criminal JD]

101. That is fine. That would be your choice.

Anybody in Houston could make the same choice. They don't have to wait for the government to tell them to go somewhere.

[Lorien]

93. Or try your own alternative:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3982759&mesg_id=3982759

[sharp_stick]

6. The mayor of Houston was saying the same thing

As long as they can stand the wind I think hanging out in Houston should be OK. I hope they're right about it, it could be nasty if they aren't.

[JeanGrey]

9. Thjey just said on the live feed that the cops said they

were sending a boat to rescue "another stupid person". Apparently someone they begged to leave who wouldn't and now is trapped.

[sharp_stick]

10. I'm always amazed at people on the shore

trying to ride this kind of thing out. Like that moron in Florida kite surfing during the last one. This kind of thing truly is Darwin at work. The bad thing is that the Sheriff or Coast Guard has to risk the lives of their people to try to save morons.

[JeanGrey]

11. I know - I feel sorry for the Coast Guard.

[Hugabear]

24. Did you hear about the freighter that's stranded in the Gulf?

There's a freighter with 22 people onboard, in Ike's path, they're being told to 'ride out' the hurricane because it's too dangerous for the Coast Guard to try and rescue them.

This is going to be bad.

[JeanGrey]

27. I know. May God be with them. I can't even imagine

what they are going through................

[TornadoTN]

13. Do you have a link to that live feed or other resources?

I would like to keep up with it, if possible.

[JeanGrey]

15. This is the one I'm listening to:

http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes

[Princess Turandot]

23. Here's a live video feed..

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=news/local&id=6102015

[JeanGrey]

14. They just said 20 to 30 feet of water over East Texas.

That is two stories or greater. God help them if they stayed.

[WolverineDG]

16. People are still on Galveston Island

I was watching video footage from earlier this morning & the reporter kept saying things like "Long-time residents say they've never seen waves this high before a storm hits."

Okay, so how many freakin' clues do some folks need to get the hell out off the Island?

dg

[JeanGrey]

17. It is almost too late to get out. Soon they will be trapped.

God we need to pray for these people. It's awful to think that people that are alive right now will be dead before morning..............

[TornadoTN]

19. It's already too late for most

Especially on that island. Did they just not take this thing seriously?

[JeanGrey]

21. No. Why not is beyond me. People make dumb

decisions. I've been following this for days and I would have been gone two days ago. I just saw a shot of the "kady" ?? freeway and it is already getting packed. Now people are trying to leave when they should've left a lot earlier.

[TornadoTN]

33. This thing has been HUGE for days - and now the Coast Guard is having to rescue people

This thing hasn't even hit yet! Amazing.

[JeanGrey]

36. Yes. It's a real screw up.

[TornadoTN]

39. Where's the government and FEMA?

You wouldn't think that because there's not GOP convention going on and the cameras are off of them, that they just don't give a damn? Surely not....

This could be a disaster of epic proportions.

[JeanGrey]

40. I don't look for FEMA to come in now.

Has the governor asked for assistance?

[supernova]

20. Tsunami footage

Somewhere is a video from a high rise (either hotel or apt bldg) of the beach from a distance and it shows how far out the surf is. But the surf is coming in and there are clearly PEOPLE ON THE BEACH LOOKING AT THE SURF...

:crazy:

I hope we are not going to read about how many people died or went missing on Sunday. :-(

[JeanGrey]

22. We will. This is going to be terrible.

[JeanGrey]

26. I just heard

The road on the seawall is already starting to buckle.

:scared:

[AldebTX]

30. It's Insane

I think a lot of people think since Rita missed them and did not cause a huge amount of damage that Ike as a weaker storm will be much the same.

By the look of things this line of reasoning will be wrong.

I had friends stay with me in Dallas when Rita hit. They are staying in Houston and attending a hurricane party this time despite pleas to do other wise.

[JeanGrey]

34. Curfew violators will be fined up to $2,000

I wonder how long before looting starts. They said earlier a news crew watched three guys breaking into a house already.

[JeanGrey]

57. Church st. and 22nd - Strand area - flooding, water pouring

into businesses. THERE ARE STILL idiots on the seawall!!!

[Liberal In Texas]

35. Not true in any news source I've been keeping track of. In fact:

"The governor also urged residents in Hurricane Ike’s path to heed local evacuation orders and assured residents that the state is dedicating all of the resources necessary to protect Texans." From a release from the Governor's office. http://www.tylerpaper.com/article/20080912/NEWS03/809120293

He's also suspended the motel/hotel tax (17%!) for the duration.

[JeanGrey]

37. Oh my god they just showed people with their KIDS

on somekind of seawall taking pictures!!!!!

[TornadoTN]

41. I just saw that - unbelievable

Are these people not seeing the same storm that I've been seeing for a week? Holy shit....seriously, this is insane. They are just meandering about, chatting on cell phones, having a great time.

Now they are reporting people begging to be rescued because they didnt heed evacuation orders.

[JeanGrey]

43. They are talking to some man now who is surrounded by five

feet of water; he said the usual "oh, ah, well, we were late getting out, and when we tried we were trapped, the ferry was closed and we were surrounded". God. He is saying if the crest is up to 16 feet they will be ok but higher and they are in trouble.................and talking about going up the roof. He sounds scared shitless. WHY DO THEY STAY

[Liberal In Texas]

60. Yeah, there sure seem to be a lot of stupid people in the world and we have

our share of them in Texas.

At some point when they stay too long, there is no getting out until after the storm.

My son's house is in a mandatory evac. zip code and they got out to a place NW of Houston. I just wish they gone ahead and come to Dallas.

[JeanGrey]

64. Be glad they were smart enough to get out!

I'm so glad they are safe.

[JeanGrey]

52. Texas City is now flooding; no evac was called for them.

Just reported on KHOU.

[Lisa0825]

68. Not true. nt

[JeanGrey]

70. I got that off a weather site. Just taking their word for

it, they've been pretty good so far. I just saw a woman with her kids on the seawall say "I didn't want to leave and come back to everything gone". ?????

[Lisa0825]

73. I am in TC right now.

No rain, and the tide has not even crept up the levee yet. They keep showing 2 houses that were outside the levee, but those do not represent the typical situation here. The levees are 20ft. We also have a 5 mile dike that juts out into Galveston Bay.

edited to add: Plus, Galveston Island itself is a barrier island to us, and helps hold back the tide.

[JeanGrey]

76. I'm surely glad to hear it! I hope you stay safe.

So you aren't going?

[Lisa0825]

79. I thought about it long and hard and decided to stay.

My neighbor across the street is a retired local cop who has been through every storm here since 1970, and he feels confident about our elevation and levees. This street has not flooded in 30 years. I also talked to a friend who is a manager at BP and is involved in their emergency preparations, and he and his wife, and the daughter and granddaughter are staying. The city has not called for mandatory evacuations in this area either. Weighing all of that, I decided to stay. I have no doubt there will be damage. But I am hoping for the best.

[JeanGrey]

81. Good Luck. I wish you had left. Let us know.

[Lisa0825]

90. Well, it's a woman's prerogative to change her mind....

shortly after I posted my last response, I went back to my neighbor's house to talk to him again. The thing that made me decide to go ahead and move inland further was this....

Yes, we have 20 foot levees, and my street is elevated higher than most in this area. However, lets say the surge is 23 feet. I asked him what would happen. He said it would all depend on how long the surge lasted, which in turn is dependent upon how fast the storm moves. If it suddenly stalls, then the surge will have enough time to flood my area. And since there is no telling in advance whether it will continue to move inland or could stall, I decided to go ahead and hit the road. I am now at WestHoustonDem's house on the west side of Houston (Imagine that!). We are still in the path of hurricane strength winds, but not in a surge area.

[JeanGrey]

91. Good. I hope you are out of there! They just said some

couple on Baliva refused to leave and the police asked them to write their social security numbers on their forearms so they could identify their bodies.

[Lisa0825]

99. That's one of the many differences between me and George Bush...

When presented with new information, I do not insist on "staying the course." I make my decisions based on the most current information at hand. :)

[Sabriel]

56. If they can't evacuate a city like Houston with advance warning,

...then what hope is there for any city in the event of a dirty bomb or nuke?

This whole lack of preparedness and organization I see in these hurricane months doesn't exactly fill me with a sense of calm.

[JeanGrey]

58. Exactly.

[Hugabear]

61. Especially when you know the damned thing is coming a few days in advance

n/t

[bdamomma]

62. where is the help to help these people

National Guard again absent while we need them in this country.

[JeanGrey]

83. They had a news conference and offered to take out

anyone that needed help.

[TornadoTN]

77. Police Chief: Galveston is becoming inundated, major thoroughfair is under a foot of water

and rising.

[Hugabear]

86. And landfall isn't even supposed to happen for about another 12 hours.

This is bad.

[TornadoTN]

87. Yes, this could be a major, major catastrophe.

The Police Chief in Galveston was on KHOU.com live feed. He sounded very, very somber, the fear was palpable.

He was talking about a family that stayed in a certain area that was already inaccessible. He said they've tried and tried and the time has passed that they can get their high-water vehicle, but the family just wouldn't leave.

[JeanGrey]

80. For people saying "it won't be as bad as Katrina"

From Jeff Masters latest blog at 11am.

Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall.

[JeanGrey]

92. A Levee failing in NOLA but rural:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
135 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH EAST BANK IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE TOWN OF SCARSDALE...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 130 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A 50 FOOT
BREECH OF A PRIVATE LEVEE NEAR SCARSDALE.

* FLOODING WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS AROUND SCARSDALE. THIS
AREA HAS BEEN EVACUATED AND THE PUBLIC SHOULD AVOID THIS AREA UNTIL
THE SITUATION IMPROVES.