The ‘Oil Storm’ scenario comes down to 25 miles one way or the other

[Strelnikov_]

The SLOSH model estimate (10% exceedence) for Galveston Bay at the ftp below assumes the center tracks over Galveston/Texas City.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest

Galveston Bay Envelope High Water: i46_gl2_EOHW.gif

The surge at the Houston Ship Channel is ~ 19’.

Track 25 miles further NE, probably significantly less.

Track 25 miles further SW (~Freeport), we are probably done as a 25’+ surge is pushed up the bay into the Houston Ship Channel knocking out 12% of the nations refining capacity for a year minimum. Factor in the losses from the Port Arthur/Beaumont refineries, we are probably looking at 16% minimum.

Not to mention the loss of petroleum imports through the Port of Houston (not that there would be anywhere to refine said imports).

If you see the center make landfall near Freeport tonight, it’s no size restrictions, and screw the limit.

[Strelnikov_]

1. Image of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station

[Strelnikov_]

2. SLOSH Model update

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest

Galveston Bay Envelope High Water: i47_gl2_EOHW.gif

The estimated surge at the Houston Ship Channel (10% exceedence) is ~ 21.5’. Track appears to be ~ 5 mi. SW of previous run, but still over Galveston/Texas City.