Any one in Texas City?

[Hokie]

I was wondering how bad the flooding is back on the mainland from Galveston. There are some large refineries there. I think the sea wall at Texas City is 17 feet like Galveston. The MSM news is almost all babble and lttle news. It is painful to watch. My feelings are that Ike was not as bad as feared.

[SammyWinstonJack]

1. Here a live feed link. Maybe you can find out here.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=news/local&id=6102015

[Hokie]

6. Local feed is much better

I wish CNN and MSNBC would just carry the local feeds. Most of there coverage is showing some guy in a hotel parking lot showing a piece of a sign that fell off.

[Strelnikov_]

2. The eye went over Texas City, so they were not in the max surge quadrant

The major surge damage will be from the east side of Galveston Bay to Port Arthur.

I have heard no reports from this area yet.

Note: Image is the last model run, not measured surge values.

Model ftp:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/

Galveston Bay: look for i??_gl2_EOHW.gif

[Hokie]

4. Thanks, Very helpful.

This agrees the actual data from Dr. Jeff Masters blog on Weather Underground. It appears the peak surge was around 12 feet on Galveston. It appears the worst surge was north of the more industrialized and populated areas.

[Strelnikov_]

12. Eagle Point gage, just up the bay from Texas City

~ 12', model estimated ~ 16' this location.

Note: Model is 10% exceedence, therefore observed stages have 9/10 chance of being lower than model estimates.

Gage location:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=29.482195,-94.925308&spn=0.111626,0.177326&z=13


Link to other gages along coast:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IKE.html#top

[Strelnikov_]

13. Sabine Pass gage

~ 14', model estimated ~ 16' this location.

[malaise]

3. We'll know if your feelings are correct re flooding

but when two million people are without power (and will be for nearly three weeks), which means anyone in a high rise will also lose water, it has already been a disaster.

[Hokie]

5. I didn't mean to minimize this

Living without power, AC or refrigeration in Houston is a disaster for sure. The flooding is what could cause permanent property damage and loss of life.

[malaise]

8. I think it is critical to examine whether the flooding danger was

exaggerated because more and more people will simply ignore evacuation orders in the future unless all concerned present the facts, as you suggested.

That said, living without power and water is a personal disaster. Additionally, fter three days, everything in the fridge and freezer becomes garbage and in these times that's a lot of money to throw away.

[merh]

10. The flooding warnings were not exaggerated.

You have to understand, Ike was causing flooding issues in Mississippi and Lousisiana for two days prior to making landfall and he wasn't even headed this way. Levies in Louisiana have been breached and they are dealing with flooding issues - Mississippi has had some, not as extreme as that Louisiana and Texas are dealing with, but enough to closed schools and damage some homes and businesses and close roads.

They couldn't know how much surge it would bring with it and who would know the surge and who wouldn't. There is no science that allows them to accurately predict this, the storm was 600 miles wide. Katrina the storm was more than what was depicted in the NOLA coverage. The surge was 30 feet in some locations, every body of water because raging rivers. Homes and businesses that never knew flooding were flooded. It appears to me that Ike has traveled much faster than Katrina traveled - she stayed over us and beat us to death - of course, Ike may be doing the same thing given his size, just because the eye has passed doesn't mean the winds, rain, tornados have ended.

All said and done, I truly don't believe the flooding warnings exaggerated.

[malaise]

11. We don't know yet

but I do worry about issues related to credibility when people are told that if they remain they face certain death and when Chertoff tells people that 100,000 homes will be destroyed or damage.

We'll know later.

[merh]

15. But you are mistaken - we do know.

The flooding caused by Ike in Mississippi and Louisiana is real and that was caused by the outer bands of a huge storm, not just the storm itself. It is truly better to be safe than sorry and you know it.

[malaise]

16. I agree that it is better to be safe than sorry

but when you have limited means and leave because of exaggerated fear and are then told you can't return, you're likely to stay put the next time.

[merh]

18. And that will always be a problem with hurricane evacuations.

I came close to not leaving during Gustav. It is emotionally exhausting to have to pack up and leave to wait it out until they let you back. I was lucky after Gustav, I made my way home just before the curfew and was able to drive back roads to get past the flooding and debris blocked roads. Had I waited 30 minutes I would have been turned back and wouldn't have been able to get to my home until the next afternoon. Had I used the public transportation and gone to a shelter, it would have been much longer before I got home because they were in control and bussed folks to the northern cities in the state. I know I will never use the public transportation. I have relatives in the middle part of the state that offer shelter, I always thank them but turn the offer down because there is no guarantee that I will be allowed back or able to get back for weeks. There is a need to get back to find if you have a home left, to let your mind accept what is so you can plan to live past the storm and the evacuation.

What they did during Gustav will result in folks in NOLA not evacuating next time - they wouldn't let folks return for days and that is emotional torture not to mention the costs associated with living away from home which most cannot afford for too long.

[malaise]

19. We're on the same page

:toast:
Looks like the Western and Eastern ends of Galveston are devastated. No news on loss of life there.
The memorial from the 1900 hurricane was shattered overnight.

add

[merh]

20. These things - it is amazing what they can do in a matter of hours.

Yes, we are on the same page and it is good to have you around to talk with about these things, thank you. :toast:

on edit - Louisiana is supposed to be having worse flooding problems than what they had with Rita. :(

[uppityperson]

23. Good to see you, reading what you and Malaise write.

Hoping you got some sleep last night.

[malaise]

25. Hi Uppityperson

:hi:

[malaise]

24. Hurricane alley people better be on the

same page. M$M is not paying any attention to Louisiana and they are facing serious flooding.
Here's a link

http://www.nola.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/news-42/122130684323040.xml&storylist=louisiana
<snip>
The storm surge from Hurricane Ike has reached downtown Lake Charles in southwest Louisiana.

Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries agents were waiting for daylight early Saturday before launching search-and-rescue efforts farther south in Cameron Parish, where about 1,800 homes are flooded.

Lieutenant Remy Broussard says the flood water has made it as far north as the civic center in downtown Lake Charles, which is some 30 miles north of the Gulf Coast.

Storm surge driven by Ike has already breached levees in coastal Louisiana and flooded areas still recovering from Gustav.

Let me add that based on the video now coming out of Galveston, the warnings were not exaggerated.

add.

[Lisa0825]

7. I am from TC and my neighbor who stayed called me a little while ago.

She said the levees held, no flooding in our immediate area, downed limbs, etc. My house there still even has power, though most of the city is off.

Two other people I know there have called me with similar updates.

[Hokie]

17. Thanks for the info

Progressives on DU are the best people in the world!

[malaise]

9. Khou just said there is nine feet of water in downtown

Beaumont.

Any word on damage in Crawford, like at that pig sty?

[Strelnikov_]

14. Last SLOSH model run for Port Arthur/Beaumont area

Model estimate ~18'? in Beaumont (from the looks of the hydrostatic grade line, must be some terrain features in that area, such as higher ground, ridges, etc.).

Note: Model is 10% exceedence, therefore observed stages have 9/10 chance of being lower than model estimates.

Model ftp:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/

Sabine Pass Area: look for i??_bp3_EOHW.gif Surge animation: i??_bp3.gif

[GOPisEvil]

21. Why would you think there would be damage in Crawford?

The storm isn't anywhere near there.

[tammywammy]

22. Crawford isn't anywhere close to Beaumont n/t

[Hokie]

26. Crawford is near Waco and Austin

W belongs to a church in Austin (where he never attends) in Austin. I know some folks who go to that church.