"Odds of an October Surprise that could influence the election have risen appreciably."

[DeepModem Mom]

LAT: An Afghan 'October surprise'?
New technology used in Iraq and Afghanistan to hunt down and kill terrorists may inject itself into the presidential race.
Tim Rutten
September 13, 2008

Friday, The Times' Greg Miller and Julian E. Barnes reported that the United States has escalated its war against Al Qaeda and its Taliban allies by "deploying Predator aircraft equipped with sophisticated new surveillance systems that were instrumental in crippling the insurgency in Iraq."

It's a story whose significance may extend well beyond the benighted hills and valleys of Pakistan's violent Pashtun hinterlands and onto the hustings of our current presidential campaign. Coupled with Thursday's report in the New York Times that President Bush has signed a secret order permitting Afghanistan-based U.S. special operations forces to cross into Pakistan without Islamabad's permission, the odds of an "October surprise" that could influence the general election have risen appreciably....

***

Beyond the purely military considerations, there are potentially significant political implications. First and most obvious is the question of the surge's efficacy. The answer matters, particularly to John McCain, who has been one of the surge's most resolute supporters. If it turns out that it was only one -- and, perhaps, the least consequential -- in a confluence of successful American initiatives, then McCain could go from steadfast to stubborn in voters' minds.

The real wild card pops up if this new surveillance technology allows U.S. forces to find and kill Osama bin Laden....

If U.S. special operations forces capture or kill Bin Laden, or if a CIA technician pushes a button and puts a Hellfire missile between his eyes, Bush will have made good on the vows he made seven years ago to bring the Al Qaeda leader to some sort of justice. In the eyes of many who supported him over the years, that would allow the president to leave office with at least part of his historical reputation intact.

There also are many Republican activists who must hope that an October surprise involving Bin Laden would give McCain -- unswerving supporter of the war and advocate of a muscular, hard-line foreign policy -- a boost by association. At the very least, anything that makes his connection to his party's now dismally unpopular president less of a stigma helps the GOP candidate....

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rutten13-2008sep13,0,1960509.column

[Phred42]

1. And when will they start using that new toy here?

[Snotcicles]

2. When McCain's poll numbers dip to 30%. nt

[misanthrope]

3. There's got to be a way to use this to political advantage...

...Obama's people need to discover and use it.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. I think it would be difficult, but this is suggested at the end of the article --

"Still, it's also possible that this particular October surprise might also help Barack Obama, at least at the margins, which is where this election increasingly looks to be decided. The Democratic nominee, after all, opposed going to war in Iraq, in part because it was a distraction from the conflict with the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda, which had, after all, committed the 9/11 atrocities. If a military technology heretofore monopolized by operations in Iraq finally brings Bin Laden to answer for his crimes, Obama and his supporters can argue that the war in Iraq delayed the day of reckoning in Afghanistan."

Maybe if Obama could make this point preemptively, keeping in mind that the "Surprise" could be coming --

[global1]

7. Seems That *Co Is Doing Everything That Obama Has Been Saying.....

- pull out of Iraq
- more troops to Afghanistan
- go into Pakistan to rid terrorists

It seems that most things that Obama has been running on - either *Co or McCain have gravitated to his ideas and they are trying to pre-empt him before Nov.

So I guess the Bush Doctrine is still in existence - and now it is being used to beat Obama.

[goodgd_yall]

11. Isn't that the truth

This is the truth behind Biden's refrain "Barack Obama was right!" He's shown excellent judgment. If only the electorate could see this.

[misanthrope]

9. Seems to me the crux would be...

...making the questions about the timing and intent supersede the action in the voters' minds. "They're playing games with justice for political ambition. The people who died on September 11th deserve better. You deserve better. America deserves better."

Then use party affiliation to tie McCain in with that. The more times they use the ubiquitous photos of McCain all chummy with Shrub, the better.

[bvar22]

16. Here's One:

Bill Clinton and the Democrats managed to capture, put on public trial, and convict ALL the terrorists involved in the First WTC Bombing.

*They did it in less than one year.

*The Democrats didn't have to borrow $1Trillion from China.

*There were ZERO American casualties.

*There were ZERO civilian casualties.

*The Democrats didn't have to SPY on American citizens.

*The rest of the World didn't wind up hating us.

*The Geneva Conventions weren't trashed.

*The US Constitution wasn't trashed.

*Nobody was tortured.


Who do you want chasing the terrorists?

[DeepModem Mom]

17. Not bad, bvar22! And all true. nt

[misanthrope]

18. Very effective! Nicely done**nm

**

[dysfunctional press]

4. "...systems that were instrumental in crippling the insurgency in Iraq."

what do they do...? deploy huge wads of cash...? :shrug:

[misanthrope]

6. Another report...

...on the same effort.

[northsongs]

8. American forces into Pakistan...

I've been thinking about this a bit.
I can understand why all of a sudden Bush thinks getting Bin Laden would help his 'legacy'. But at the same time his press secretary is saying Bin Laden wasn't the mastermind of 911. I remember 3-4 years ago even Bush made the statement that he wasn't all that worried about Bin Laden anymore.

So it appears to be a totally political move on his part to now go after BL. The shame of it is he's putting American forces, once again, into danger to satisfy one of his egocentric visions.
Some legacy...


"When people think, they vote Democratic." - Bill Clinton

Obama-Biden '08

[misanthrope]

10. It's not his legacy...

...It's BO they're going after, not OBL.

[DeepModem Mom]

15. Excellent points, northsongs -- welcome to DU!

[thecrow]

12. They could show us a coffin with a wax model of bin laden

and say "that's his body... we succeeded" and who's to know better?
Like when they showed us pictures of the Hussein boys.
How do we KNOW they're dead?

[nichomachus]

13. HA HA HA HA

I said the exact same thing here three or four days ago on DU and was laughed at and ridiculed, and my OP never even got five recs.

[Wednesdays]

14. "...instrumental in crippling the insurgency in Iraq."

:rofl: