Iowa Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead - 12 points ahead!

[Breeze54]

Iowa Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080913/NEWS09/80913038/-1/NEWS04

By THOMAS BEAUMONT • COPYRIGHT 2008, REGISTER & TRIBUNE CO. • September 13, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.

The poll, taken in the wake of the parties' national conventions, shows Obama favored by 52 percent of Iowa likely voters, compared to 40 percent for McCain.

Although only 5 percent were undecided, the race remains fluid, with one in four voters saying they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate in the seven weeks left until Election Day. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Graph at link

Top campaign advisers to Obama and McCain have said Iowa, where the past two presidential elections have been decided by 10,000 votes and fewer, is in the top tier of swing states. However, there are signs in the poll that Obama has a healthy advantage among key voter groups here.

Chief among them are independents, 49 percent of whom say they prefer Obama, compared to 36 percent who say they support McCain.

More...

[Bluzmann57]

1. Eastern Iowa is mostly Democratic

and we also border Illinois. I've seen many many Obama signs and stickers around here. I'm not really sure if this DM Register poll was statewide or just concentrated in central Iowa, but either way, it's good news! Actually, if it's concentrated away from eastern Iowa, it's better news. Because western Iowa (basically west of DM) is ,um, a bit conservative.

[dems_rightnow]

2. Iowa has been great!

Obama's been leading this traditionally very close state by nice margins all along.

Maybe some bleed-over from next door Illinois?

[Bluzmann57]

4. Yeah

That's the point I was trying to make. Plus, Western Illinois is HUGELY Democratic. Ill. 17 hasn't had a repub representative for around 35 years or so and they are among the nastiest repubs ever. One candidate even went so far as to make fun of Lane Evans, who was in the first stages of Parkinson's dosease at the time. She lost and lost big. Obama has mentioned Lane Evans several times and if Mr. Evans was able, would likely hold a position in an Obama administration.
Oops, sorry about sidetracking and going off subject. I just know quite a bit about Illinois 17 as I am over there a lot and it is part of the Quad-Cities region.

[Breeze54]

3. Poll Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected telephone numbers.

About the poll

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080913/NEWS09/80913038/-1/NEWS04

The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines,
is based on interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older.

Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected telephone numbers.

Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Responses were weighted by age to reflect the general population based on recent census data. The sample includes 616 Iowans who say they will definitely vote in the November election. Percentages based on likely voters may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

The poll, conducted Sept. 8-10, asked the following: ......

[LiberalFighter]

5. Were those only landline or did they also include cell?

[Breeze54]

7. They never do cellphones... it's illegal... go to link for more details.

:hi:

[Greybnk48]

6. This sounds more like it, based on my experience talking to people I know.

Of all of the people I come in contact with (not just friends, but republican acquaintances and relatives), I only know 4 voting for McCain. Even my ex-husband and his wife, who voted for * TWICE, are very vocal about their support of Obama. I'm in NE Wisconsin.