Future reading, long article
September 2008
http://contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmsnip>>
"But perhaps another major issue that is not being given enough attention is the fallout consequences due to the one balance sheet not destined to shrink during this process of deleveraging we have described, and that's the balance sheet of the Federal government. While the financial markets, the household sector and in good part the corporate sector engage in long overdue deleveraging, a natural offset to avoid either the reality or perception of collapse will be the continued expansion of the government's balance sheet. And this process of expanding the Federal balance sheet, as you know full well, has already begun in full force. For now, the de facto bail out of the GSE's and the residential mortgage bail out bill are two poster child examples of this phenomenon at the exact point of acceleration. Even the auto manufacturers have their hands out. Will it be the airlines next? Unfortunately, we expect a lot more where this came from ahead. In one sense, the government really has no choice. This is the price all US taxpayers will bear for years of regulatory self induced blindness. Could our current set of circumstances have been avoided? Of course, but regulatory oversight simply turned a blind eye in deference to the Wall Street and credit cycle driven profit motive. Let's face it, a lot of individuals became very wealthy during the prior credit cycle mania period, now clearly seen to be at the expense of the larger US taxpayer base. Privatizing profits and socializing risk. Sounds like Russia a decade ago, no? Welcome to the USSA. As Jim Grant recently opined, "where is the outrage?". We have no idea.
Enough of the ranting and raving. Let's get to the point. As this process plays out and the Federal government is continually forced to expand its balance sheet as an offset to the leverage contraction occurring largely throughout the remainder of the economy and domestic financial markets ahead, THE big question becomes, where will the funding for this balance sheet expansion come from and what will it ultimately cost? A question near and dear to the hearts of US taxpayers everywhere, to say nothing of the investment community. This, we believe, is now and will continue to become one of the most important questions for our investment activities. We cannot take our eye off of this ball as we move ahead. Point blank, and we could not be more serious when we ask this, will the US face a funding problem at some point?"