Gallup admits that it only includes "likely voters" in polls when it would benefit McCain

[ck4829]

The Gallup Daily Presidential tracking poll, which many of us follow more closely than we should, reports results based on a survey of registered voters. At some point in the future, Gallup is going to switch to likely voters for the tracking poll, but we don't know exactly when.

Just as Nate predicted over at 538, the Gallup tracking poll showed a stable, close race leading up to the conventions, then a bounce for Obama, and then a bounce for McCain that seems to be subsiding, though less quickly than Obama's. The longer-lasting effect of McCain's bounce is probably the result of his VP selection (and convention) stepping on Obama's, rather than any lasting shift in the race (despite what the pundits have rushed to conclude).

That poll, taken in the three days immediately following the Republican National Convention, showed by far the largest national lead McCain has ever had in any poll (54-44 among likely voters), and generated a tremendous amount of attention. It helped drive the buzz for all of last week -- that McCain got a huge bounce from his convention, that Palin was a game-changer, that Obama was in big trouble, etc.

Notice that Gallup never released a likely voter poll over the three days immediately following the Democratic convention -- nor did it release any polls through USA Today during Obama's bounce. Putting it in USA Today guarantees far greater attention than the tracking poll alone gets.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/15/74531/5933/788/599244

[NJmaverick]

1. Gallop and the other polling companies

have a strong incentive to keep the race close and the polls in constant flux.

[AndyTiedye]

2. They Have a Strong Incentive to Help the Republicans Steal It Again

Can we really believe that 15% of our party switched parties the the Republicans in a month?
Even a pessimist like me finds that a bit hard to swallow. Party identification is not that volatile.
Yet that is what Gallop wants us to believe.

[Jennicut]

3. Gallup=bs

Only showing what they want everyone to see.

[crickets]

4. Most of the polls lie most of the time: 'shaping' opinion rather than reflecting it. -nt

[FARAFIELD]

5. YOU ARE SO WRONG, YOU DONT EVEN KNOW WHAT YOU ARE SAYING

In your first line you say "The Gallup Daily Presidential tracking poll", that poll NEVER showed McCain up 54-44 the poll you are thiniking of in one that gallup was commissioned to do for USA TODAY. So right off you are conflating two different kinds of poll. A tracking poll (IM ASSUMING YOU DONT KNOW THE DIFFERENCE) is one that is averaged for the previous three days to get a certain number. IN the tracking poll McCain was up 2 points the day before the Dem Convention. TOday he is up two (AFTER BEING BEHIND by 7 and then UP by 5). So when you say "THAT POLL" you are thinking of another poll (the 54-44) and that was LIKELY VOTERS and to get that number they had to "drill" down to to 40% Republicans 28% Democrat and 32% Independents. And the reason that Gallup never released a likely voter poll over the three days was A) they dont poll Likely Voters for their tracking poll and B) they only "conduct" the poll under the conditions of the ones commissioning it (in the case of the 54-44) CNN. Know a little about polling, or the subject before you "believe" or cut and paste something. By the way in case you missed it. Yesterdays tracking has us just two points behind McCain (right where we were the day before our convention). Thats the real news, that all this Palin crap an "energy" yet McCain has done zippity, and there is still 6 days to go in the historical trend line of "bounces" Obmas ended yesterday and he has picked up a point (from 44 to 45). See where we are on Next sunday and we will talk. I would be more concerned about the media talking about McCain running away with it, or Obama Flailing etc.

[leftofthedial]

6. gallup is pure repuke propaganda

their "polling" is a joke.

[ailsagirl]

7. WAY TO BE IMPARTIAL!!! Jeeeez

What's their purpose, then????

:shrug: