WA-Gov, MO-Gov: Tale of Two Races

[ccharles000]

Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters, 8/6 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 52 (46)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Huh? That's a gigantic jump for Rossi in the Washington governor's race, with the first poll of the entire race to give him more than a one-point lead. With nothing having happened in the last month that would move the dial much in this race (other than a continued deluge of Rossi ads), it would be kind of hard to believe if it weren't for last week's SurveyUSA poll, which also had Rossi taking the lead (albeit by one point). Even if this Rasmussen poll is a bit of an outlier (the same sample had Obama up by only 2, which also shows a much closer race than anyone else before), it can't be that screwed up an outlier, and in view of SUSA's poll it should probably be viewed as at best a tied race (see the Pollster.com chart now).

A look inside the crosstabs shows the main problem for Gregoire... and also the main problem with the poll itself. Rossi is winning 89-8 among McCain voters, while Gregoire is winning only 81-19 among Obama voters. That's believable (maybe some Obama/Rossi voters are taking 'change' a little too comprehensively).

On the other hand, this poll shows one of the key Obama demographics, the youth vote, going overwhelmingly for Rossi (shades of that SUSA WA-08 poll last week). 18-29 year olds favor Rossi 72-20, 30-39 year olds favor Rossi 58-39, and 40-49 year olds favor Rossi 52-47. Only the 50+ crowd favors Gregoire. Now that smells a little fishy.

Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):


Jay Nixon (D): 54 (51)
Kenny Hulshof (R): 39 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The open seat governor's race in Missouri is a completely different story, with Attorney General Jay Nixon on cruise control. Representative Kenny Hulshof (who was at 38 in July) doesn't seem to have gotten a bump out of the Republican convention, winning his own primary, or anything else. With Washington and North Carolina both looking fuzzy right now, though, a victory here might just lead to a net gain of zero in the statehouses.


http://swingstateproject.com/