DOW to Drop 600+ Tomorrow?

[DaLittle Kitty]

Comments?:think:
Consequences?:think:
Political Impact?:think:
We got a lot of the week left before the weekend break in the action...:freak:

Lots of time for much to happen/unravel? :wtf:

Could there be some "jumpers?":scared:

Have at it folks this may be a very difficult week. :wow:

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Do you have a link for that? I'd like to send it to someone. Thanks!

[Catch22Dem]

9. I think DaLittle Kitty is asking, not telling

And curious what other DUers think of 600+ as a scenario.

[DaLittle Kitty]

12. EXACTLY!

:)

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Despite the claims of the Silicon Valley Start-Up FUTUREWIKI

We still don't have links for shit that hasn't happened yet.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Damn... and I thought my Linux machine came with that CODEC somewhere!

:-)

[MadrasT]

35. *snort* CODEC .... ROFL

:rofl: :hi:

[rsmith6621]

2. Where are you hearing that from....

I want to know if I should start hording crackers and peanut butter and jelly, sugar and packets of koolaide...


LINK please.

[texasleo]

3. I don't know. There could be some bargain hunters out there.

[whistle]

4. If that is based on anything valid that you heard or read, it will then

...most certainly drop but 1,000 points or more

[gristy]

5. I have a feeling you made up that number

Am I right?

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Dow will close + 150 tomorrow.

Or maybe not.

Remember Jackpine's Second Law: When the market goes crazy, only crazy people play the market.

[wiggs]

62. Holy Crap JR! Good call! I hope you're putting that skill to work... nt

[flvegan]

7. Oh, for Christ's sake. It's like a financial "Rapture Ready" forum lately.

[TransitJohn]

It is.

Lots of doom and gloomers around here. :hi:

[lligrd]

20. Well, Many Of Us Have Been Predicting That This Would Occur

since the * took office. It just looks like the time is finally here. Not something we wanted to happen, something we warned against.

[flvegan]

27. Predicting what?

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Read the stock market watch thread

check where it was when bush took over, and where it closed today

Perhaps that is the clue you need

For the record it has DROPPED over 20% from its high

I know, leading a horse to water and all that

[flvegan]

38. Okay

Bush took office it was what, 10.6? Closed at 10.9 today? Sorry, I don't follow the DU stock thread because I don't look to a few thousand folks, most of which have no clue in the regard, chiming in.

So please, "clue" me in. School me on a 600 point drop tomorrow. I won't say it won't happen, but it won't happen for the reasons folks here seem to think it will.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. It is called a trend

a DOWN bear trend that has been around for months in a clear fashion

But whatever, we have no clue.

Have a good night

[flvegan]

44. Didn't say you or the other well informed folks here had no clue.

But I'm not about to sort through dozens of responses that I don't need. I know that you, specifically, know your shit, no disrespect intended.

A good night to you as well.

[Subdivisions]

8. From what I myself can gather from two solid years of watching

this debacle, I think we should expect to see a drop of the DOW to around 8200 and the S&P down to around 800 before this is all over.

That's my prediction and I've bookmarked this post. I hope I'm wrong.

[closeupready]

11. That's certainly possible. There are MANY bad portents of

economic problems to come`.

[lligrd]

10. Don't Know If Tomorrow Is The Day But The Mother Of All Crashes

is surely coming soon.

[alfredo]

13. Interesting times. Asia isn't too keen on what is happening by the looks

of their markets


22:35 EST

Nikkei 225 ---11619 ---- -595.39 (-4.87%)
Hang Seng -----18079---- -1,273.85 (-6.58%)
All Ordinaries ---4748---- -127.50 (-2.57%)


the Prozac will kick in and some profit taking will cool it a bit. When?

[Old and In the Way]

28. I wonder if WallStreet will react to these markets?

Sort of like a dog chasing it's tail.

[alfredo]

32. Everybody on Wall Street knows their asses are on the line. Fixing the

markets is self preservation.

[Arrowhead2k1]

14. The truth is, nobody knows exactly what will happen tomorrow.

So stop pretending like you do, because you DON'T. If anyone could predict the markets so faithfully, they'd be rolling in the dough.

[lligrd]

17. I Guess You Didn't Notice The Question Mark

It was a question not a statement.

[Liberal_in_LA]

15. probably not...usually bargain hunters drive up the prices day after big drop

[Wednesdays]

18. If another big bank or other big institution fails tomorrow, then yes

But I doubt if that scenario will play out tomorrow, in my humble amateur opinion. The Asian markets have plummeted in early trading, but while the markets are still losing, it's at a much slower rate now.

So, unless some other huge bad news like that hits, the market won't react too much. It may dribble downward a bit (or even rebound some), but I wouldn't bet the farm on another 500+ point loss again tomorrow.

I truly hope I'm right...if not, then... :scared:

Edit: having said that, I took a peek at the Dow futures...down -146.

[roamer65]

19. If AIG goes bankrupt, 600 points easy.

An AIG bankruptcy will inject the contagion into the multi-trillion dollar credit derivatives market.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. You do realize tonight I will have a heck of a time sleeping.

don't you?

And I don't have that much... and for the moment we are safe....

Perhaps we should speak of how the system will change... by force... mostly

But trickle down is dead (for this generation)

[Wednesdays]

29. That's true. AIG is hanging on by a thread

Even if AIG eventually survives, the current fear alone could create an avalanche.

[ColbertWatcher]

21. Are we betting? n/t

[lligrd]

24. Isn't That What The Stock Market Is? nt

[ColbertWatcher]

31. Meh, six of one; half a dozen of the other. n/t

[MrMickeysMom]

25. Time to check Astrology room

on the other hand, you don't have to go too far to see what will continue as a deep slide.

[CK_John]

26. Depends on how much they cut intest rate. IMO 600 to 800 down. n/t

[Speck Tater]

30. Some fools will think this is a bottom. Buying will keep it from

completely falling apart.

My guess is down 200 to 250 points at close tomorrow.

Then up by a couple hundred on Wednesday, just because most speculators are driven by short term greed, and any slight up tick will be mis-interpreted as a recovery, and nobody wants to miss that bandwagon.

[Coyote_Bandit]

33. If the DOW does indeed drop 600 points tomorrow

it will be because the amateurs are afraid and bailing. The pros know that the DOW - and its total of 30 stocks - is not a good measure of the US economy or any single sector in the economy.

The professionals who are value investors will be selectively shopping the financial sector for long term potential. The single most effective strategy on wall street is to do good research, buy a good stock while it is out of favor and then hold it long term. You sell it and take your profit when everybody else thinks buying it is a great deal.

Most of the professional institutional investors have a well defined investment strategy and discipline. They make their livelihood by anticipating market moves. Many have been wisely reducing their exposure to the financial sector for quite some time now. The exposure to bad mortgage loans is not exactly new information. The pros will dump stocks they continue to hold if they think the survival of the company is at risk. If they've done their job they don't hold many of those stocks.

Talk of continuing large market downturns feeds fear and panic among personal investors. Such talk - especially when qualtified - is speculative. It is nothing less than fear mongering. There are two fundamental motivators in the marketplace - greed and fear. Feeding fear is an indirect form of market manipulation.



FWIW, I once worked in a multinational international private bank center as an investment portfolio manager responsible for in excess of $650 million in investment funds.

[Two Americas]

37. greed and fear

Greed is so much better than fear. We need more greed mongering and less fear mongering.

But what about those of us who fear the greedy?

[coalition_unwilling]

50. I propose we dump the "War on Terror" (which

we are on our way to losing anyway) and declare a "War on Greed":)

[Two Americas]

52. the times they are a-changing

The entire country is about to move dramatically to the left politically. Hope we can drag Obama along for the ride, for his sake as much as anything.

"Stop being afraid people, greedy is what we are supposed to be, not fearful!" they say as they prey on all of us and scare us half to death.

There it is right there, plain as day. The everyday people are fed up with greed and fear. They ae a lot smarter than we are in that respect.

[ComplimentarySwine]

36. How does all of this affect me?

For us working-class people just trying to make the car payment, and not heavily invested in stocks, what does this all mean? Obviously, if I work for someone who is losing everything, they're not going to be able to pay me. What OTHER effects does it have? Should this make the price of food and gas go up or down?

Any, perhaps this is unrelated, but why is the price of oil in a relative free-fall?

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. You want or need a new car?

Credit will be so tight that it may really be near impossible

Need to refinance the home... same thing

Oh and all those unemployment numbers will only increase the number of folks that cannot afford to buy the cars that you build

It affects you

Oh and your 401 K... that has gone down in value too

[Fearless]

45. Well if large banking firms and the like begin to go under...

Instability in the market leads to first tighter credit lending. This has already happened. And second the failure of more, larger banks and lending institutions. This has already began too. Then stage three the biggest lenders, who have assumed the debt and swallowed the impact of the smaller ones fall. Personally I'm looking at Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. They've assumed so much of the bailout impact so far that they're treading on a slippery slope, buying up debt, etc. If either of them were even to rumor to go under, we would be finished. Unfortunately for BoA, I also believe that they've been cooking their books for some time now to maintain stability. I don't know about JPM. Regardless, if either fall, the banking and lending system will cascade into failure virtually worldwide. Rapid inflation will occur followed quickly by even sharper deflation, the whole Great Depression deal. FDIC would not be able to cover it's own ass as it can't now, having only $50B in capital for about 200 times that of covered assets. That is, you wake up and all the money you've ever saved in the bank disappears. Period. If you have a mortgage, you lose your house. Worse so, if everyone starts taking their money out of the banks, it happens faster. On the bright side, the US debt wouldn't matter anymore as the dollar would be worth mud. On the down side, winter's coming and there would be a problem heating homes.

The key is NOT TO PANIC. Investors must move back to basics, ultra-protectionism of assets, bedrock safe investing. Many European firms have already been doing this for the last six months or so. Likewise, China may be the biggest profiteer of this possibly happening. With their economy growing as it is, undeniably they would be on their feet first after a market crash. Then we have a serious, serious problem whereby we can choose as a country to take the easy way out and become a virtual colony. They buying up bankrupt US businesses en masse and transforming the US into the ultimate consumer economy whereby we suckle on the teat of the world's new sole superpower for our own livelihood. Or we rebuild the US from the inside out, the hard way, with new controls on business that rightfully should have existed from the beginning.

I don't know what's going to happen. Frankly, if even 10% of what I've just, admittedly, concocted comes true, we are in for hard times ahead. Big Business over extended itself into the realm of crooked dealings and profit skimming, sunk in deep, cooked the books to keep it afloat, and now is falling. It's Enron. On a world scale. All I know is that we cannot afford John McCain's economic jackassery. I don't know if Obama can save this country. But I do know what four more years of this will do:

END GAME.

[readmoreoften]

55. This confuses me: why am I at risk of losing my home if I have a mortgage?

If I am able to pay (I have 4 bedrooms and could easily rent rooms) am I still in danger?

[Fearless]

59. You are able to pay now...

But if the prices of everything shoot through the roof. If food were to say quintuple in price or worse, we're getting closer and closer to the edge. It may not quite apply to you, I wouldn't mean to judge your financial situation, but I know that many would be in serious trouble if essentials prices were even to double.

Let's just hope this doesn't happen. Elect someone who might be able to stop it. There's not much the average person like you or I can do. We simply don't have the capital to provide a cushion.

[readmoreoften]

61. Okay. I was just worried that there might be banking mechanism where I could lose my home.

Or where someone could repurchase my mortgage and slap a $1000 a month fee on me for no reason.
If it gets really bad even people with paid off homes will lose them due to property taxes and insurance.

[Fearless]

64. No, not that I know of.

[RagAss]

40. Everybody Relax !!

[ladjf]

42. My guess is that the market will regain some of today's loss.

But, over the next few days as it oscillates up and down will trend mostly downward so that within a week it could have dropped another 500 points. There just isn't much on the up side unless the Feds decided to bail Lehman out and I don't think that will happen.

[opihimoimoi]

43. Liquid Cash gonna be Better than leaving the value in a declining market....the Dow may reach 6000

in a week or 2....Ressession/depression time....

[Fearless]

47. The DOW cannot drop that much in so short of a time...

The market shuts down for the day if it drops more than (I believe) 5%. It was a protection set in place to ward off panic. 5% is 550pts or so... a day... that's it.

Everyone relax.

[opihimoimoi]

53. Theoretically, 10 days = 5500 pts,,,,10500 - 5500 = 5000 ...just saying

Mr Murphy said this might occur....

[Jack Rabbit]

46. Sox hundred points sounds like a good guess

Part of me is experiencing some serious Schadenfreude, but the better part is reminding me of what Mom (1914-2002) and Dad (1911- ) told me about the Great Depression and how it doesn't sound like anything I want to live through.

Political impact . . .

I, Barack Obama, do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States . . .

That may be the only good news to come out it.

[TexasObserver]

48. I doubt the DOW will lose 600 points Tuesday.

At 6 AM Monday, I predicted a 500 point loss to a non profit foundation board I represent which has several million dollars invested through a major brokerage house in the news. The DOW lost 504 Monday.

I expect the DOW to continue falling, because there are more sellers than buyers, and the harsh truth of economic reality is beginning to sink in. Once the government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and then told Lehman Brothers they were on their own, the grim reality hit. However, many are still in denial. I expect the DOW to continue to drop before it hits bottom, and not to rally any time soon.

There is not going to be any good economic news between now and the election, with one exception: the price of oil should continue to drop, because as we see the end of the Bush administration and the hope of an Obama administration, the upside of oil speculation is much more dicey, and therefore speculators are unloading their futures in oil, bringing down the price further. As the awareness in the public that the economy in the US has tanked increases, that will further drive down demand for oil and its price. We should therefore see some reduction in the price of oil, though not necessarily a reduction in the price of gasoline, due to Ike's activities in the gulf.

I do expect the DOW to drop at least another 500 points before the election, and will not be surprised if it drops below 10K. I do not expect that to happen this week, however. If the DOW averages losing 100 points a week, we end up around 10.3K on election day.

If the DOW is under 10K on the day before election day, it will be an Obama landslide.

[TexasObserver]

60. so far today, I'm on target with this prediction

I think we will see a slow bleed in the DOW now. As government tries to stave off the decline, there will be some bulls in the market, just enough to keep the decline from having another drastic drop.

I do not think the government can turn this decline around in the next six weeks, so we almost certainly will the DOW below 11K on election day. The only question is "how far?"

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

49. Since it looks like the government has stopped the bail-out mode

and will let the banks, insurance companies, and investment houses fend for themselves, it may put a scare into investors.

[B Calm]

51. My little IRA lost -3,404.74 since last closing. . . . . The republican economic

disaster continues. . . .

[truthisfreedom]

54. I've never participated. My advice? RUN.

RUN SCREAMING. Wait about 4 weeks, and buy.

[cali]

56. getting off over the prospect of jumpers? I expect nothing more

from you.

The secular apocalyptics are near as vile as the religious ones.

[RollWithIt]

57. 1.9% drop tomorrow

Bank it!

[radfringe]

58. if it does, then it will be lower than when bush planted his butt in the oval orafice

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

[question everything]

63. Don't quit your day job

and I do hope, for your sake, that you did not make financial decisions based on that ridiculous "prediction."