I need some perspective on this crisis.

[AngryOldDem]

Is this the modern-day equivalent of 1929?

Is it worse than '29? Can the two even be compared?

Can we expect to see a massive run on banks such as what led FDR to close them down temporarily?

(I realize these questions have probably been discussed elsewhere here; I'll take a Cliff's Notes version. I've been watching CNBC all day and these questions have just been growing in my mind. On a side note, you KNOW it's bad when even CNBC can't see a silver lining.)

[cali]

1. I don't think we know yet.

It hasn't all unfolded.

[wtmusic]

2. Sorry, this board is reserved for know-it-alls.

:D

[Mari3333]

3. i want to know how this will affect retirees

like myself, who count on income generated by mutual funds such as Vanguard. I am not having a good day. I guess I have to ride this wave. lots of gloom and doom on here, but is this just cyclical? I cant get a hold of my financial advisor, I wonder if she jumped off a roof.

[dixiegrrrrl]

6. I have been with Vanguard since 1998..

To date, Vanguard has been very very reputable.
They are the only mutual fund company I would use.
They said on their website that only a few of their many many funds were affected by
Lehman type bad holdings,, and they held tiny amounts.
A lot depends on what funds you have, and what underlying assets are in the fund.

Having said that, there is no way even Vanguard can avoid losing money now, which is true of all holdings in all companies. No fault of Vanguard.

The problem for retirees ( and I am one ) is that when the market falls, it takes a long time for the lost income to be re-gained.
Which is why putting retirement money in the stock/bond market as you get close to retirement is a bad idea.

I moved mine out over the past 18 months, the last fund I moved today, it is all in the my local bank, closer to home.

[Mari3333]

7. i am 2 1/2 yrs from widows benefits

which will at least be a monthly income. if i dump vanguard, however, i will be socked with capital gains. so i am between a rock and a hard place. i assume they are pretty stable, so i may just have to ride this out, and live even more cheaply then i am now, which is hugely cheap. no tv, no trips anywhere, ramen noodles and food from sav a lot. c'est la vie. this is going to be so much easier when i no longer have a body. :)

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. Better check again about those capital gains.

It was my understanding that capital gains taxes had been...changed...until 2010.
You might want to check that out with a tax person.
Vanguard will not give you tax help, so you gotta ask an accountant or whoever does your taxes.

And you are free to move any amount of money from one fund to another in Vanguard with no cost to you, no taxes etc. I have done it many times over the years.
Online, to boot.

[1awake]

4. cliff notes version.. hmmm

Is this the modern-day equivalent of 1929?

no.. not at this time

Is it worse than '29? Can the two even be compared?

no.. but again.. things could change depending on the events of the next year.

Can we expect to see a massive run on banks such as what led FDR to close them down temporarily?

no.. but only because that would require effort, and most people aren't into that.

[Narkos]

5. Here's a link that might help

http://www.progressivehistorians.com/2008/05/since-i-wrote-my-essay-on-bill-clintons.html

It's the first of 3 essays

[LeftHander]

8. Multi-billion dollar failures of character...

If you look at what lead up the Great Depression much of it was the failure of the banking and credit industry.

Much like we have today. However what is different is the sheer size of today's capital markets as opposed to those in 1929. But many parallels exist.

Long period of growth leading up to crash
Increased acceptance of risk by banks because of large numbers of greedy individuals.
Corrupt Government and lack of Regulation

Like 1929 the fall will first be precipitated by the crumbling of credit and failure of banking.

We already are seeing the early signs of depression....when prices begin to fall. Deflation.

The fed did not raise rates because inflation is not a issue. But some sectors we have seen prices fall... it is hidden as percentage of discounted sales and the wholesale and retail levels.

A dollar is not really worth a dollar...but the prices keep rolling back

Deflation is inevitable as billions and billions of "dollars" evaporate from our economy. Without currency backed by actual value the value of our currency will lose value as prices wholesale and retail begin to decline. Without credit and the ability for bank to provide loans to each other and consumers our safety net is removed.

The end result may not look like the 1930's which suffered also from a great drought in the Midwest and poor farming practices that caused millions of farms to fail and people become dislocated but it will be similar. We have our own environmental factors that exacerbate the financial situation....global warming and climate change. The same kind of people were promoting over cultivation are alive and well today in the form of global warming naysayers.

The Great Migration...

What we are seeing is a collective contraction of numerous cities as the CORE of our economy falters and that is manufacturing. The cities empty and real estate begins to show it's true value. We are seeing another migration. Not unlike 1930 dust bowl days only now it will be the 2010 "Ghost Cities" migration.

As one by one areas will lose jobs, workers population to economies and natural pressures like massive snow, flood, drought. The built in resiliency of the nation has been removed and much like a person infected with HIV/AIDS, we cannot defend ourselves from small problems becoming magnified to the point of becoming disastrous.

Conflict on the Horizon....The N Word

Nationalism.

Nationalism will solve economic problems with conflict. War pulled America from the Great Depression just as much as FDR's New Deal did. The New Deal kept America going until the massive industrial potential that America had become a reality as we prepared for global war. But "war is not the answer".

We are still the sleeping giant. But the nationalistic powers operating on our government have yet to find the ability to mobilize the entire population behind Pax Americana. Not that they didn't try. They tried hard.

There are no easy ways to pin down any single reason for the mess we are in and their are no easy solutions.

Collectively the nation needs to change how we think and behave. If we don;t then we will be doomed as a nation and the "Great Experiment" will of concluded in failure.

This board has discussed numerous changes required. We were talking about them years ago. Ideas about smaller economies, local development, ending oil dependency and rampant consumerism and consumption, returing control of the media to the people. Campaign finance reform, universal healthcare, education reform. All the ideas rejected by the Republicans could of stemmed the tide. The greed, the selfishness and the apathy and distraction, if not outright titillation conducted by the media combined with the Republican conservative movement to enable our own self-destruction. People simply can't get their heads around that. Investing in war and debt cannot sustain a nation.

In A Nutshell...

Our money once slated for social progress is used for war and the bailout of multi-billion dollar failures of character. The great surplus was squandered. The longest period of economic expansion and growth of the middle class was impossible to sustain under conservative government control and thus was doomed. 911 not needed. It was the moral and ethical lack of character by conservative political leaders and thinkers. The world is such that there NEVER WILL BE AGAIN a nation that will rise on a conservative political movement.

Hope....?

Yes there is. First step is to dismantle the GOP by removing them from office this November. Then we all need to get out of our consumer based mindset and think of ways to serve and produce for this nation. On a local scale. Be it volunteering, starting a small business, helping a neighbor...simply living like decent human beings and to give up the selfish desires of the past.

We are all intertwined with each other, the past, the present and the future.

Thinktank that.

[dixiegrrrrl]

10. Bravo !

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: