The President did not specify what he would do to fix the Social Security problem. He again urged creation of private Social Security accounts. But those would be of no help whatsoever in shoring up the system's finances. The President made those private accounts sound like a sure bet. History suggests that the President is correct -- the stock market has averaged a 6.8% "real" rate of return (adjusted for inflation) over the past two centuries.
The administration says a conservative mix of stocks, corporate bonds and government bonds would return 4.6 percent, even after inflation and administrative costs. And the administration also figures that private accounts would need to generate only a 3 percent rate of return to beat what Social Security provides. But there's no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Markets are inherently unpredictable and volatile. At present, for example, all major stock-market indexes are still well below where they were five years ago.
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