AlterNet: Why the Polls Drive Us Crazy (and Shouldn't)

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Why the Polls Drive Us Crazy (and Shouldn't)

By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted September 20, 2008.

If you've been on an emotional roller coaster, you might want to disembark.



There was a lot of talk last week about John McCain's "momentum" -- about the Republican brand rebounding.

And a dark cloud of gloom descended over many of those hoping to bring an end to the Bush era. "We've seen this before," was a common sentiment. A reader recently sent me a story, written during the lead-up to the 2004 election, about Kerry's seemingly indomitable lead in the polls -- a lead similar to Barack Obama's 8-point (average) advantage in the horse race a few weeks ago.

Then, this week, the storm clouds parted and the sun shone down on progressive America as Obama seemingly regained his mojo. Now he has surged back into the lead!

This emotional roller coaster is bad for one's psychic health and entirely unwarranted. The bigger picture is this: For about 10 days during the past 10 months -- after Sarah Palin's introduction to the country but before Americans got a good look at her beliefs -- McCain inched ahead of Obama in the national head-to-heads. Now, the tide appears to be turning back in Obama's favor: As the electorate has gotten enough of a look at Palin to distrust her, her once-high approval numbers have taken a nosedive. And McCain continues to say brilliant things like the economy is fundamentally sound and he won't meet with the dastardly prime minister of Spain.

More to the point, the significance of those head-to-head polls -- the yardstick featured in so much political reporting -- is completely overblown. The reality is that nobody knows what's going to happen in November. It's an unprecedented election in two ways: a black man is vying to become the president of the United States; and in the midst of an economic meltdown, voters are feeling an unprecedented degree of pessimism about the direction the country is heading. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.alternet.org/election08/99586/why_the_polls_drive_us_crazy_%28and_shouldn%27t%29/