I hate to say I'm right when I'm right, but I was right and I want some credit

[louis c]

On Tuesday Morning, September 16 at 7:35 AM, I predicted that the polls would dramatically shift to the Democrats over the next 5 days ( Sept. 16, 17, 18, 19, 20). I also pointed to the economic downturn (who knew at the time that it would amount to a meltdown?). But, what's the sense in making predictions if you can't crow about them when they come true?


Thread Link 9/16:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=4011082

Now, today, a full five days later, not only was my prediction correct, but Gallup has annunciated the same exact reasons. The only difference was I said it before the fact, they said it after. Now, only if these numbers could hold. Stay tuned.

Gallup Link 9/20:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110551/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-McCain-44.aspx

[Happyhippychick]

1. You get credit! Thanks for staying positive.

:)

[creeksneakers2]

2. That's really good

What do you think will happen next week?

[louis c]

21. Obama will do well in the debate

here, I disagree with his strategy. I would have wanted the economy to go first. Barack will bury McCain on that issue.

Putting the economy last is much riskier.

Foreign Policy is the other guys strong suit. If he could have stayed on the economy, our lead may have become insurmountable.

but what do I know?

[aquart]

3. Republicans lose appeal in depressions.

Me, I wouldn't trust them to add a lunch check. Or order coffee.

[Codeine]

4. And now

we need to stay focused and positive. Too many DUers panicked because of McSame's convention bump, and they will probably panic again as the race tightens later. WE WILL WIN THIS THING. The energy is all ours. The momentum is all ours. The Future is all ours. :)

[obamaforme]

16. Amen to that!

[Warren Stupidity]

5. Ok you are a freaking genius

who could have imagined that the worst economic crisis in nearly 80 years would cause a change in the political landscape?

I am in awe. You should drop everything and head to DC and invest whatever remains of your life savings in a swank consultancy office on K street and just wait for the hotshot-politico clients to line up for your bidness.

Seriously.

[louis c]

7. On Tuesday Morning, the meltdown was not seen as inevitable

and Republican politics could have made the Democratic congress the scape goat. But I had confidence that the Obama team would take the initiative away from McCain. there are two other reasons that the polls changed. The marginalizing of Palin but putting the serious face on the election and the exposed lies by the McCain campaign. Remember, that this prediction was made while McCain had a lead, so nothing was really certain.

[dkf]

6. The cluelessness of McCain/Palin started to truly scare people.

I think they began to see that McCain is not the person you want in an economic crisis.

Good call.

I thought the polls would turn when Obama started smacking McCain around.

[louis c]

11. I like your sticker. My wife is Asian, but she's not bitter.

She loves Obama. My wife (who is Filipino) has 6 years of college and has held jobs around the world, including Kenya, France and Indonesia. I have learned that the more educated and aware a person is, the more likely he or she is to support Obama.

[dkf]

12. I'm not really bitter...yet.

I'm hoping Obama can fix the mess we are in. It gets scarier and scarier every day. We need some adults running this country.

[Bigmack]

8. Credit???.... shiiiiit....

with the tag-team going on between Wall Street and White House, nobody is gonna have credit for a long time.

That's the flippant answer.

Non-flippant answer: Spouse and I were right along with you, but that's really cold-ass comfort, under the circumstances.

[melody]

9. You had been arguing with me a week before that that the race is over & Obama had lost

What changed your mind?

[louis c]

14. Show me the thread

I told you how difficult it is to convince white, middle-class voters to vote Obama. I posted that to share some ways of convincing them. I was in New Hampshire on the 18th to do just that. We must recognize that race has to be confronted and not hide our heads in the sand.

The economic crisis has changed the election to issues and people are scared. Lipstick and bullshit now are frowned upon because things are so serious.

I thought we would have to change the debate to serious issues all by ourselves, one voter at a time. The economy has done that for us, in one fell swoop.

If I thought all was lost, I'd stop posting and stop working on this campaign. I never give up on anything, and I'm certainly not ever going to give up on this election. But what I will do is always give an objective opinion and the reasons why I hold them. Reality is the best argument to convince others, whether they are middle class voters skeptical of Obama, or DUers who want to look at this election through rose colored glasses.

[melody]

17. You know very well the thread I'm discussing

I was telling you we would win ... you were saying we wouldn't. I also said (as did hundreds of DU'ers far more
knowledgeable than I am) that we'd see the convention bounce slump and watch Obama trend up.

[louis c]

20. I have never, ever said we wouldn't win

Never. Never here, never at my seminars that I attend and participate in. Never, ever. I have pointed to some of our difficulties. I have said that the Republicans know that a great deal of American voters are stupid. that we have to convince them with reasoned thought while the repukes give bullshit, like swift boat ads and lipstick issues. I did say we are at a disadvantage because of this, and therefore we have to work all the harder. But I never, ever, ever, ever, said we couldn't or wouldn't win. I will give you my name and schedule. why would anyone contribute time and effort to a cause that he thought couldn't win? I just don't think it is automatic just because we're on the right side.

You read what you wanted into a realistic statement of fact and difficulties that member's of Obama's staff recognize, that we have to deal with lies, smear and racism.

you can E-Mail me and I'll give you my name and schedule and all the work I do for this cause.

But you will never find that I ever said we can't win. I have said it will be more difficult then a lot of DUers think it will be.

[melody]

23. You want to hear my precis?

I'm not going to launch into some childish you did/you didn't nonsense. The fact is you were attacking anyone who was optimistic just a week before your conversion. If you hadn't strutted around, trying to preen yourself with credit for "predicting the change", I wouldn't have said a thing.

Now have your last squawk and let's be done with this silliness.

[louis c]

25. Realistic is different from pessimistic

Realistic. everyone up here that's working with labor for Obama and reaching out to our members in New Hampshire, is doing so by being realistic. Blind optimism, such as that that is displayed here, can be dangerous.

Here's who I'm working with. Check out this article and maybe you'll understand. I heard this speech in person.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2008/09/02/confront_racism_leader_tells_union/

[KathieG]

10. Ok...

[louis c]

15. That's the nicest reply I have received in 5 years at DU (NT)

[orleans]

24. no wonder--you've only been here for less than four & a half years!

(there was still 8 months to go!)

oh, and i was gonna ask you:
are you god? (just kidding. i really wanted to ask how much you charge for a "reading")

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

13. It's not enough

Remember the GOP motto.....as long as it still looks close, you can steal it.

[Sal Minella]

18. And you can muscle the "press" into making it look close. nt

[AlCzervik]

19. Here you go

not a rick roll either.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1BNOzDnOLI

[and-justice-for-all]

22. KICK ASS!!!! Spot On!!!

Gallup Daily: Obama 50%, McCain 44%

Lets go for a 10 point lead!