McCain could get a break with the last unemployment report before the election.

[Liberal_in_LA]

The last unemployment report before the Bush/Clinton election was the end of Bush's chances to be elected. This year, we had a big increase in unemployment reported with the September report and unemployment is predicted to increase into 2009. But McCain could get a lucky break with a seasonal drop in unemployment because teachers go back to work. The last unemployment report before the election will be on October 3rd. The repubs could use this temporary drop in unemployment to crow about the economy. They drove the economy into the ground but don't have to pay the price.

http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/sep/20/jobs-data-turn-worse/
Jobs data turn worse
Unemployment expected to rise well into 2009
By Richard Craver | Journal Reporter

Published: September 20, 2008

North Carolina's chances of posting any kind of economic recovery the rest of this year are growing dimmer, economists said yesterday.
The state's unemployment rate reached a 61/2-year high of 6.9 percent in August, the N.C. Employment Security Commission reported. The unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in July.
And unlike most years, when the jobless rate falls during the fall months as teachers go back to work and holiday-season hiring begins, economists say that the rate is likely to keep rising well into 2009.

*********

"We may see the jobless rate fall back a few tenths of a percentage point in September and October," he said.

*********

A report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics found that there were 2.6 job seekers for every available job in the nation during July, or 8.8 million unemployed Americans and 3.4 million job openings. By comparison, there were 1.6 job seekers for every job opening in December 2006.

What is your prediction for the October unemployment report (last before election)? Compared to September's 6.1.

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. For goodness sakes poll respondents! WHY do you think the rate will be higher?

[FVZA_Colonel]

2. If it's seasonal that needs to be pointed out.

A tiny drop because teachers are going back to work only masks the fundamental problems right-wing policies have created, and this gigantic band-aid won't solve. If this is really a danger, Obama can't let them trick people into thinking that just because unemployment has dropped slightly that means everything's fine.

[Motown_Johnny]

6. Not just teachers..

back to school shopping helps clothing and office supply stores. Schools also have custodians, groundskeepers and other maintenance personnel


There should be a seasonal tick in the number, or it should stabilize at the very least

[FVZA_Colonel]

8. I kind of wish we had the option to respond with "slightly higher" or "slightly smaller."

Given the recent chaos I wouldn't be surprised to see it climb (slightly), while the seasonal effect leads me to think it might drop (slightly.)

[Motown_Johnny]

3. Delete, I didn't read the entire OP... silly me

[Liberal_in_LA]

4. Last report is first friday in OCTOBER.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. OK, so we are talking about september's numbers.. I don't think those will

affect the election directly either way. It will be old news by then

[Liberal_in_LA]

5. But we'll get the weekly unemployment claims right up until the election

[SheilaT]

9. Teachers returning to work

won't boost employment numbers. They're not technically unemployed during the summer.

And the collapse of the various financial institutions is surely going to put some people out of work. Isn't it?

How about all the people in the path of Hurricane Ike who won't be returning to work yet? I realize that all those still out of work from Katrina and Rita have long since been dropped from the unemployment rolls. And who's to say there won't be another major hurricane before election day.

Also, since the economy isn't so hot, and a lot of people are cutting back on their spending, aren't all the stores doing poorly? Isn't Linens Plus in the process of going out of business? Aren't there other chains either cutting back or closing entirely? Hasn't Starbucks closed a bunch of stores?

Should I ask a few more questions?