MarketWatch: Tip of the recession iceberg

[marmar]

ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Weakness will be just tip of the iceberg

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy is headed into rough seas and important economic indicators to be released in the next five days will show weakness, but the data are expected to be just the tips of the icebergs of the sharp slowdown lurking just out of sight, economists said.

"The trend is getting weaker -- momentum is fading," said James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS in New York. But the data this week surely won't be as bad as October data, he said.

The full impact of the credit crunch will be felt in the October data, O'Sullivan added.

The push by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for government rescue of the financial sector has captivated headlines and obscured "consistently deteriorating economic data," said Richard Moody chief economist at Mission Residential Research.
The first iceberg of September data is the Institute of Supply Management survey of manufacturers released on Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT.

The survey is widely regarded as an excellent gauge of business sentiment and conditions.
So far this year, the ISM report has been holding up fairly well. The index has been averaging just below 50, not so bad given all the talk of recession.

For September, the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists is for the index to slip to 49.8 in September from 49.9 in August. Hints of weakness came in several of the regional manufacturing surveys released earlier this month. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/weakness-data-just-tip-iceberg/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC801A3E%2DBB00%2D4914%2DB846%2DC8DC032F47B8%7D

[stillcool]

1. The full impact will be felt in October data?

this is just so weird. All this happening at the end of the Bush Administration. Like a bon voyage party.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. yeah..on the Titanic