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... but the FACT of the matter is that the mine floor is knee-deep in dead canaries. Millions of people have confronted this economic 'crash and burn' scenario over the last 10 years. It WAS happeniing during the Clinton-Gore years, as well. Listen up.
In the mid-90's, the law was changed regarding capital gains taxation on the sale or exhange of one's priamry residence. The law, for many DECADES, required folks to buy a new primary residence within 18 months for a price at or equal to the net sales price (sales price less cost of sale) of the prior residence or be subject to capital gains taxation on that sale. The new rule, now in effect, allows a lifetime individual exemption of $250K.
Why?? What really drove this? Well, it was clear that home prices were skyrocketing ... in California and other markets, the median prices of existing homes were at levels unheard of before - reaching 4, 5, 6, and 7 times the meidan incomes in those areas. People were LEAVING those areas, selling their homes, and moving to areas with loser cost homes. But these refugees from the inflated markets were looking for homes of equal or greater cost, to protect their "equity nest egg." The people of Oregon, Texas, and other low cost areas were ENRAGED!! Those damned Californians were coming in and buying mansions and making it impossible for OUR kids to buy homes. (Never mind that the values of existing homes benefitted. Provincialism has funny results.) At the same time, the economists saw that we were confronting a NATIONAL housing market and the inflationary pressures of California were going national. The 'regional' housing market was rapidly succumbing to the national fad of leveraging a housing down payment into increased equity as home prices went up.
But it wasn't enough ... and there were some major casualties. Canaries were hitting the floor of the mine and we IGNORED them. People caught with higher-priced homes in those areas, when it came time to move, couldn't sell them. The transferred California equity of $100K and more evaporated. (The locals grinnned. That California 'lihbrul' got fucked. Yippee!) We're NOT talking about people with low down payments here, folks. We're talking about people who bought a home in eastern Washington for $270,000 with a $100,000 down payment from the gain on the sale of a California home. Then, after the tax change and a regional downturn - increased unemployment and more people leaving than arriving - they couldn't sell it for the $170,000 mortgage ... even AFTER taking a $100,000 loss. Foreclosed. Wiped out. Totally.
Then the dot-com bubble burst and all the speculation money migrated to the next bubble - one which was already inflating, but now there would be no limit. Housing.
But the specculators faced a problem. Nationally. Folks still weren't earning enough. Median wages and salaries have NEVER kept up with median home prices in the last 28 years. Never. So it's time for more inventive ways to qualify folks. NINJA loans. Even more, they found they could take folks who actually qualified for traditional 30-year-fixed mortgages and shell-game them into the sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages ... especially Latino and black buyers. Yippee!
Here's the deal. "Those people" moved into "our" area and took "our" jobs and bought nicer homes. "We" think it's justice that "they" got fucked. (Never mind that "we" made money in construction - especially with imported labor - it was great to see those "outsiders" get fucked.)
But then "they" became "us" ... as it always turns out. We ignore the plight of others at our peril.
Now here's the newsflash: NOTHING HAS CHANGED except the value of our EXISTING homes. (It's going DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.) Wages and salaries are still getting worse. I predict that unemployment will reach 10% nationally before next spring. Industries dependent upon housing are going down the tubes. Home construction? Decimated. Realtors? Decimated. More and more mortgages will capsize (mortgage greater than market value) in the next year. The median home price will drop MORE THAN 25% in the next year. We're fucked.
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