Why Obama will win

[brettdale]

www.stuff.co.nz

"I didnt write this, its from an american journo writing for a NZ news website"

Barack Obama will win the presidency by a comfortable margin next Tuesday. It is not 1948 and Barack Obama is not Thomas Dewey. And if John McCain were Harry Truman he would change his tax policy.

We have also not seen - and it is not reflected in the polls - the vote-generating machinery that is the Obama grassroots campaign. By every indication, it is the most thorough exercise in overwhelming force devised for a presidential election and its true power will be evident only on election day.

Why will Obama win?

1. Change. McCain is being painted as being the third Bush term - and the country has had enough of the second Bush term. The underlying issue is change and competence. In the fiasco that was the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq and Hurricane Katrina, and the economic slowdown of the last two years, the American people began connecting the dots in 2006, delivering control of Congress to the Democrats. And they have continued to connect the dots in 2008 to Wall Street and the economic meltdown.

In response to the classic polling question on the health of the country - are we on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? - a record 90 per cent of voters today say America is on the wrong track.

And 51 per cent are saying that McCain would represent the same direction as President George Bush, whose approval rating is at a near-all-time low of 23 per cent overall and only 18 per cent on managing the economy. Bush is a millstone around McCain's neck.

2. Assets. Just as in nuclear war you cannot have enough weapons, in US politics you cannot have enough money. To the end of August, Obama had raised $US468 million. McCain had raised $US228 million. And in September Obama raised an additional $US150 million.

Obama spent $US100 million on advertising in September and is winning the air wars by out-advertising McCain by a 4:1 margin.

Obama has more than 2 million financial donors and has on his database more than 1.5 per cent of American voters - about 3 million people. They will all receive emails and SMS messages to get out and vote in the days leading up to the election. The Republicans have nothing as sophisticated or effective in their arsenal.

The Obama turnout machine is also specifically targeting Hispanic voters, who are now breaking 70:25 for Obama. This could prove decisive not only in the west but in the Rust Belt states as well where immigration sentiment has flared - and Hispanics know which party has been less hospitable to them.

3. The economy and leadership. Earlier this year, the election was in fact a referendum on Obama. Who was he? Was he one of "us"? Could we really elect an African-American as president?

While there is undoubtedly a race factor, this election is not turning on race.

What the presidential debates have done so far is position Obama as the more regarded and capable political leader to deal with the economy and other issues.

While McCain is viewed positively on national security, the economy outweighs Iraq in voters' minds by a 6:1 or 7:1 margin in importance.

In recent polling, Obama has decisive margins on confidence in handling the economy, addressing the economic crisis, having more enthusiasm among supporters, being better on taxes, better on energy, providing hope for the future and being able to unite the country.

Therefore, the economic crisis is driving the desire for change, which in turn is driving a change in perceptions of Obama - so that now the election is a referendum on the economy more than Obama.

4. Iraq is not working for McCain. The American people decided a long time ago that the war was a mistake. They absolutely do not want a dishonourable exit. But they want an exit. And with McCain, there is no exit ramp from a war that is costing $US10 billion a month - billions that are not going to health care and jobs and education.

McCain may well be right on the surge - but the success of the surge is hurting McCain. If the surge means that Iraq is more OK, then it is more OK to leave. And Obama is for an orderly leaving.

Even on the issue of whether voters have confidence in Obama and McCain to be commander-in-chief, 48 per cent have confidence in Obama and 51 per cent in McCain - hardly a confidence gap at all with the more experienced Republican. Obama is viewed virtually equally in terms of being trusted by voters to handle terrorism and the war in Iraq.

5. The penny has dropped. Cognitive dissonance applies not only in psychology; it also has political significance. Voters sceptical of Obama - over experience or race or trust or however you want to put it - are resolving their issues with Obama.

The New York Times this week came across a retired steelworker in Pennsylvania. This is what he said: "I'm no racist, but I'm not crazy about him either. I don't know, maybe 'cause he's black. We was raised and worked with the black, the Serb. It was a regular league of nations. And the economy now, it's terrible. I've got to vote for him, the Democrat, Obama . I can't be stupid."

The Wall Street Journal recently talked to a 55-year-old white woman in Indiana - a Republican state that has not voted Democrat since 1964. This is what she said: "I am not 100 per cent crazy about Obama. He kind of scares me. But I think he will do better for the middle class."

And elections in America are won and lost in the middle.