Why Zogby polls are suddenly skewing for McCain

[Generic Other]

I always get Zogby polls. Always. Every other week. For years. Suddenly in the past few polls, as McCain's numbers have gone up, I have not been asked to respond to polls.

EXPLAIN THAT ZOGBY. There's how ya skew your polling numbers you piece of shit.

Any other liberals noticed you've quit getting Zogby polls in your email the last two weeks?

[Tracer]

1. Zogby stopped sending me polls well over 6 months ago.

Perhaps it's because I always self-identified as a Democrat.

[Generic Other]

3. Me too

I smell a big red repub rat.

[dkofos]

8. Me too.

In my case I think it's because I'm a left (far left) leaning independent.

[Coyote_Bandit]

14. Me too.....

I probably don't fit into any of his demographic groups.

That's OK. I'm not impressed with Zogby. No need for me to contribute.

[tanyev]

39. Ditto.

Got them regularly for a long time, replied regularly, and it's been months since the last one.

[corkhead]

2. no worry, he his helping our GOTV with his claptrap

[Dogmudgeon]

4. It's the weekend.

Mac always polls better on the weekends.

Mid-week belongs to Obama. And THIS mid-week, Obama will belong to America.

:woohoo:

--p!

[eleny]

5. Same here!

I signed up years ago and used to get their polls all the time. Especially during the '04 election.

How is it that I live in Colorado, a swing state, and I haven't gotten a poll from them in many months? So it doesn't make sense to me, either.

[snappyturtle]

6. YES! You're right! I haven't gotten a "survey" in weeks! nt

[Mz Pip]

7. I stopped getting them

probably last year.

If his polling is based on an internet interactive poll then it can't be accurate.

I don't know where this McCain ahead poll comes from but it isn't anywhere close to any of the other ones released today. :shrug:

[aquart]

9. Umm. I haven't been getting any lately either.

[Nite Owl]

10. You're right

I haven't gotten a poll to do in couple of months.
My son gets them too I'll have to remember to ask him if his have stopped too.

[LiberalHeart]

11. I've gotten two. One stopped working midway through.

[Richard D]

12. Good explanation

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

[Generic Other]

15. Apparently, we Democrats who had been taking his crap polls all these years have been expunged

Zogby is taking his cue from the Republicans. He figures he needs to disenfranchise as many of his self-identifying Democrats on his poll as he imagines will be turned away at the voting booth.

I am angry now. Zogby should be called out and discredited for such blatantly dishonest tactics.

[yellowdogintexas]

13. I have not gotten one for over a month, at least and I used to get them every 3 weeks

do you think they culled us because we responded for Obama consistently?

[Generic Other]

18. BINGO!

Those annoying Zogby polls were as regular as my bank statements for years. Many a time I filled them out grudgingly to do my part.

To hear the results of the last two polls surprised me as I didn't get to take them!! This thread confirms my suspicion that we were all disenfranchised. Easy enough for him to take those of us who had voted Kerry and consistently said we were for Obama out of his dishonest cheating poll. Some poll.

[yellowdogintexas]

54. guess what! I did my every two days or so check on my junk mail and there it was

so I filled it out, just like the others. Arrived yesterday, prob

[GreenPoet64]

16. Misleading question in Zogby . . .

I got the poll, but it asked "How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" (or similar wording.) I was stumped because I had already voted. I didn't know whether my likelihood would be zero or 100%. I opted for 100% and answered all of the questions, but I came very close to not participating because of the way it was worded.

[Ms. Toad]

20. Standard wording..

and you answered correctly.

[GreenPoet64]

31. Yes, but my point . . .

My point is that many people who have voted may have opted out or answered "not likely" (not likely to vote because one's already voted.)

To be clear, there should have been a question: "Have you voted."

There was not.

[Ms. Toad]

36. All the early voting is a new thing this year

the polls haven't adjusted yet. I've participated in a number of polls, and they are all worded that way (i.e., it's not a Zogby plot to not poll early, heavily Democratic voters).

Personally, if I were in that position, I would have answered likely - since the likelihood is 100% that I will vote in this election (having already submitted an absentee ballot that will be counted on election day).

Granted - it wouldn't hurt to have changed the wording. Have you voted would be good, as well - since it would give them a little extra certainty about some of the responses.

Similar to the thoughts I had in the late 70s when my local tax form asked for "head of household" and then the next line asked for "wife's name."

[GreenPoet64]

43. So there is a lag in adjusting the standard questions. . .

Probably not intentional, but who knows.

I lived in California in 2004, and voted early. Do you know how many states have added early voted this year? I think this may account for the skewing.

I believe a computer chooses email addresses at random, which would explain why some people have not received polls and others have. I was polled after Obama's infomercial.

[Ms. Toad]

48. This is Ohio's first general election with no-excuse

absentee voting. Technically we don't have early voting. I think quite a few states added this year - I couldn't find a distinction between new early voting and states that have been doing it for a while, but this article says 32 states now have some form of early voting, and indicated "States have done backflips to make it easier for people to vote in advance of election day." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22800373/

In Ohio, before this general election you had to have one of a list of reasons to vote absentee - e.g., being out of town, house or hospital bound. Now you just have to request an absentee ballot without giving a reason.

[SalviaBlue]

17. I haven't gotten one for a few weeks... weird.

[Generic Other]

19. Suspicious isn't it?

If that POS ever ever ever ever sends me another poll I will skew it every way possible.

I am going to represent the Republican pedophile for Palin's unborn eggs demographic.

[CC]

21. I got one a couple days

ago and it was pretty much the same as I always get around election time. Are you likely to vote, who did you vote for in 2004, who are you planning to vote for now. What party do you consider yourself a part of, are you liberal, moderate, conservative etc. Religion, race, union member, age, income are you a NASCAR fan.

[Generic Other]

22. Proof?

FROM hUFFpO

<snip>

On Saturday morning, Drudge trumpeted the latest one-day finding in John Zogby's latest three-day tracking poll on the presidential race. While Zogby's three-day average still shows a 5-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain, the pollster notes on his site today that McCain led Obama by one point, 48 to 47, in the last day of surveys.

More cautious than Drudge, however, Zogby says that it's too early to declare that McCain has made decisive gains over Obama. "If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on," Zogby writes.

But as the Huffington Post reported on Thursday when discussing the latest Fox News poll, Zogby has a unique methodology in his polling. He fixes -- or "weights" -- the partisan balance of his respondents, unlike most pollsters. While his admirably transparent and stable practice guarantees a certain methodological sameness from day to day, therefore making any new lead for McCain worth reporting, Zogby's partisan weighting can also raise other questions.

Asked earlier this week what the partisan weighting of their poll currently is, a Zogby aide told the Huffington Post: "Party ID remains at 38 Democratic - 36 Republican - 26 Independent. We have added a point for 18-29 , 1.5 for African Americans, and 2 for Hispanics."

Earlier this year, Zogby told me that "party ID is a lead variable, and a major determinant in how people vote. I apply a weight to party ID, and if I see a reason for it to change, I will."

Still, Zogby's two point party ID advantage for Democrats is the smallest of any polling firm. The last four days of the Hotline/Diageo poll show anywhere from a four- to six-point advantage for Democrats -- and a simultaneous seven-point lead for Obama. Gallup's latest surveys indicate that Democrats have an 11-point advantage over Republicans in party ID.

Zogby's partisan makeup gives even less of a partisan advantage to Democrats than Fox's latest poll, which earned some skepticism, as well.

As for the day-to-day fluctuations in tracking polls, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says they are "almost entirely due" to random statistical error, or "noise."

"The trackers don't move in sync with each other -- one goes up, another goes down," he tells the Huffington Post. "This is what we are seeing today in fact. Already we see that Obama is down in Zogby but up in DailyKos and Rasmussen. No doubt we'll see more of the same in the next three days. There is no evidence here of any real trend toward McCain in either the national polls or the state polling as smart analysts like Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com and Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin of Pollster.com have shown."

For what it's worth, McCain lead pollster Bill McInturff sees things Zogby's way. In a Friday conference call with reporters, McInturff said "I don't see how you have party ID at negative 8 . That's not America ... anywhere in the last generation and a half."

Aside from determining the next president, Tuesday's election might be used to settle a few scores in the polling profession, as well. <SNIP>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=132&topic_id=7694920&mesg_id=7694920

[DireStrike]

23. You guys heard about that push poll, right?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116

[MadBadger]

24. How have you been asked to respond to polls?

[Generic Other]

28. email

always asks how you voted in 2004, whether you like Bush, if you are a Democrat. the usual. Always asks if you are a NASCAR fan.

Hey maybe he isn't polling anyone who didn't self identify as a NASCAR fan?

That guy is a real scumbag. How do we know his damn poll was paid for by the McCain campaign. Changing the way you poll and who you ask after years of doing it the other way seems as if it should invalidate your damn poll altogether!!

[MadBadger]

29. Well thats completely different You are talking about his online polls, not the telephone poll

The Telephone poll is the tracking poll. I believe he has stopped his interactive polls. So we are talking about two different things here.

[Generic Other]

37. so we have all been taking his online polls all these years and we aren't counted at all?

Uhm...

:grr:

[MadBadger]

38. Basically

The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll that we all get pissed off about is a telephone poll

[DireStrike]

25. dupe

[TankLV]

26. me too - I haven't had a zogby poll request for weeks now...

very interesting...

[Irishonly]

27. Me too

[depakid]

30. You've basically answered your own question

Zogby's methodology is, to put it lightly- suspect.

It wouldn't be acceptible for the purposes that it's used in most undergraduate courses.

[Generic Other]

33. I hope he gets infected by a virus

calls the election for Nader. Idiot poll I wasted my time ever responding to.

[JBear]

32. Me too!

:popcorn:

[Mrs. Overall]

34. I haven't been asked by Zogby to answer questions in at least 4 or 5 weeks.

[Generic Other]

35. We need to get this info to KO

that this is how polls work in America. I'm pissed off.

[Jazzgirl]

40. I got one for the first time in weeks the other day.

I decided not to waste my time anymore doing his polls. I hate the way they word questions, push polling and shit.

[Name removed]

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[Sanctified]

44. I just recently started getting polled, never got zogby before the last couple of months.

I am in the Portland area, did they recently change the area demographics that they are polling?

[norepubsin08]

45. Me too!

[Swamp Rat]

46. Same here, and I'm a long-time Zogby participant.

[Generic Other]

49. OMG they don't care what we think, Swampy!

WTF is wrong with them???

[Swamp Rat]

51. They fear the coming tidal wave of change.

Fortress Amerika is cracking at the seams.

[bikebloke]

47. I got one this morning.

At least I saw it this morning after flying back from Argentina. I was away two weeks, but he probably thought it would be three or four - I wish.

[fascisthunter]

50. same here

[3waygeek]

52. I got a Zogby poll this morning...

for the first time in a couple months. Very brief poll on presidential preference, with one very strange question about rating the trustworthiness of whites, blacks, and Hispanics.

[Generic Other]

55. Guess he should ask about the trustworthiness of Zogby!!

Some of his questions are way over the top!

[NorthCarolina]

53. Same here

eom