Detroit Free Press: 'Youthquake' could shake up the election on Tuesday

[marmar]

ELECTION 2008
'Youthquake' could shake up the election on Tuesday
BY DAWSON BELL and MARGARITA BAUZA • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITERS • November 1, 2008



Is 2008 the year of the young voter?

Lots of signs point in that direction. Consider:

• Barack Obama's rock star-style rallies on college campuses across the country (including one attended by 15,000 to 20,000 at Michigan State University on Oct. 2).

• A surge in registrations among all voters, including those younger than 30.

• A trend that saw 2004 and 2006 bring an uptick in young voter participation after two decades of decline.

Obama, with his relative youth, cool and intense outreach, is getting most of the credit.

Lauren Meunier, 20, a junior at MSU, said: "I feel like on a college campus that almost every kid is an Obama kid."

Then again, maybe not.

Despite all the hullabaloo about young people and the 2008 election, as a general rule, 18-to-late twentysomethings don't care about voting as much as their elders.

The Gallup Organization, which has been tracking voter behavior for more than half a century, reported last week that registration, interest in the election and likelihood of voting remains measurably lower among 18- to 29-year-olds than among those older than 30. The under 30 "share of the likely voting electorate ... appears as if it will be similar to what it has been in past elections," Gallup's pollsters said.

Even in 2004, when interest in the election spiked among young people, only 49% of eligible voters younger than 30 went to the polls. That compared with 68% among those older than 30.

Activists pushing voter participation by young people argue this year is different. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.freep.com/article/20081101/NEWS15/811010379/1215/NEWS15

[NoodleBoy]

1. don't dis the youth vote-- it's the only demographic Kerry in 04

got more of than Gore in 00.



wow, it just dawned on me, this map is maybe 3 or 4 states different than what the results we'll see on Tuesday will be like.

[marmar]

3. Cool map.....but what's up with Maine among 18-29 year olds?

Are there just too few of them in that state, and the ones who stick around are just nuts?

[stillcool]

8. Cold weather, big drinkers..

not that the whole state is like that, but the places I've visited remind me of where I live.

[msongs]

2. this is said every election year. will they put down their e-toys to vote? nt

[RB TexLa]

4. good bet they will find something better to do Tuesday, you never depend on them

[Juche]

5. In 2004 they made up 16% of the electorate

Since turnout will be slightly higher and they make up a bigger proportion of the nation, I would assume a 19-20% of the electorate will be under 30 this time around even though people age 18-30 make up about 25% of the potential electorate.

So having 19-20% of the electorate going Obama by a 60-35 margin is going to make a huge difference. In 2004 they preferred Kerry by only about 10 points. This election they prefer Obama and the dems by 20-30.

[retread]

6. Last time the so called "youth vote" turned out was 1972. We know how that turned out.

If memory serves me well, Nixon got about 1/2. Viet Nam war was raging and godamn Nixon got 1/2!!!! Ever since then I call bullshit on the so called "youth vote". I would love to be wrong this time.

[marmar]

7. Different era, different conditions, different youth.....

Apples to Kiwis.

[retread]

9. Apples to Kiwis in '76, '80, '84, '88, '92, '96, '00, and '04 also? In 2004 there WAS an

increase in under 30 turnout, mostly due to an increase in Latino and African-American under 30 voters. It is worth noting that the white voter under 30 gave Bush a 54 to 45 edge. 1972 still remains the year with the largest under 30 turnout.