http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/architect/repub/secure.htmlSNIP
When you look at what redistricting does, the Republicans will hold the House until 2012. When you look at the 30 red states and the 20 blue states, the Republicans will hold the Senate indefinitely unless there's some radical change in the nature of the two parties. The party that carries all those lovely square states out West will dominate the Senate. (Grover Norquist)
SNIP
In addition, the age cohort that is most Democratic by party ID are people who grew up and became 21 years of age between 1932 and 1952. People of that age who came of age during the New Deal and the Great Depression are now 70 to 90-years-old and every year 2 million of them pass away. So, the Democratic Party -- the Yellow Dog Democrats are passing away and the 20 and 30 and 40-year-olds coming up are more likely to be Republican than Democrat. So they have a demographic disaster ahead of them for the next 15 years that mirrors what happened to the Republicans from '60 to '75. That was the period where the older people who were passing away were Republicans who'd come and become 21-years-old before the Great Depression, and if you were north of the Mason-Dixon line you were Republican.
So, there are these period of times when younger people look around and decide to be more Republican or more Democrat and they hold that until they die. And so the Republican Party had this implosion in their numbers from '60 to '75 and the Democrats are in the middle of that now.
SNIP
I think it would be difficult to see a Democrat winning in 2008 because of the demographic trends, because of some of the successes that you can see the Republicans will have in the next four years to weaken the trial lawyers and strengthen the constituencies. The Democratic Party needs to restructure itself as something other than the trial lawyer, labor union, government worker, aggressively secular party. That isn't a majority strategy.
How's that working out for you, Grover?