1988-2000 Exit Poll Discrepancies were due to Uncounted Votes; but 2004 Differed in Kind and Scope

[tiptoe]

Uncounted and Switched Votes

TruthIsAll      source: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide, Ch. 19

1988-2004: Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies

Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast — from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988–2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.

Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:
(2-party exit poll share in parenthesis)

 

Year

 

Democrat

 

RECORDED
VOTE-COUNT

UNCOUNTED
ADJUSTED

 

UNADJUSTED
EXIT POLL

AVERAGE

 

 

 

46.9 %

48.9 %

 

48.8 %

 

(52.7)

 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988

 

Kerry
Gore
Clinton
Clinton
Dukakis

 

48.3
48.4
49.2
43.0
45.6

49.0
49.7
51.4
45.7
48.7

 

51.8
49.4
50.2
45.7
46.8

 

(52.3)
(51.4)
(55.8)
(56.8)
(47.3)

Look at this ?click">graph:

In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic EXIT POLL share exceeded the RECORDED vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share.

The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections.
Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.

The analysis shown below indicates that given Census 2000/2004 estimates of total votes cast and 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” shares, Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Even using Final NEP vote shares, Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters! The Final was 'forced' to match the recorded vote using mathematically impossible weights and by sharply increasing Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP.

There are some exit poll critics who claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique, and, therefore, to conclude that the election was stolen based on exit poll results is "crap" and "bad science". After all, they say, there were no allegations of fraud in 1992. They fail to mention or are unaware of the fact that in 1992 Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%), but that 9.4m votes were uncounted, of which 70–80% were Democratic ( 75% Dem / 25% Rep are used in the model). When uncounted votes are included, the 52.0–41.5m adjusted vote (45.7–36.4%), exactly matched Clinton’s unadjusted exit poll.

From 1988-2000, after the uncounted adjustment, there was a 0.85% average Democratic exit poll discrepancy and 2.9 WPE. In 2004, after the 3.4m uncounted vote adjustment, the exit poll discrepancy was 2.8% and Bush's margin was reduced from 3.0m (62.0–59.0) to 1.3m (62.9–61.6).  But ...

Uncounted votes were only one component of Election Fraud 2004.  The Election Calculator Model determined that approximately 5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

Recorded and Uncounted Votes

Year

 

States Reported
VOTES COUNTED

VOTES COUNTED

Dem

Rep

Other

 

COUNTED-VOTE  Shares

Dem

Rep

Other

 

WPE

 

VOTES
UNCOUNTED

~75%
Dem

~25%
Rep/Oth

AVERAGE

 

104.0

48.8

47.9

7.2

 

46.9%

46.0%

7.1%

 

3.76

 

7.5

5.7

1.9

 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988

 

122.3
105.4
96.3
104.4
91.6

59.0
51.0
47.4
44.9
41.8

62.0
50.5
39.1
39.0
48.9

1.2
4.0
9.7
20.4
0.9

 

48.3%
48.4%
49.2%
43.0%
45.6%

50.7%
47.9%
40.7%
37.4%
53.4%

1.0%
3.8%
10.1%
19.6%
1.0%

 

7.09
2.01
1.93
5.40
2.38

 

3.4
5.4
8.7
9.4
10.6

2.6
4.0
6.5
7.1
7.9

0.9
1.3
2.2
2.4
2.6

 

Total Votes Cast vs. Exit Poll

Year
Adjusted

 

Census Reported
VOTES  CAST

COUNTED+UNCOUNTED

Dem

Rep

Other

 

UNCOUNTED-Adjusted Sh

Dem

Rep

Other

 

EXIT POLL
Dem

 

post-Adj
Diff

 

EP2pty
Dem

 

UNCTD
/ CAST

AVERAGE

 

111.5

54.5

49.8

7.2

 

48.9%

44.6%

6.5%

 

48.8%

 

0.1%

 

52.7%

 

7.0%

 

2004
2000
1996
1992
1988

 

125.7
110.8
105.0
113.9
102.2

61.6
55.0
54.0
52.0
49.8

62.9
51.8
41.4
41.5
51.5

1.2
4.0
9.7
20.4
0.9

 

49.0%
49.7%
51.4%
45.7%
48.7%

50.0%
46.8%
39.4%
36.4%
50.4%

1.0%
3.6%
9.2%
17.9%
0.9%

 

51.8%
49.4%
50.2%
45.7%
46.8%

 

-2.8%
0.3%
1.2%
0.0%
1.9%

 

52.3%
51.4%
55.8%
56.8%
47.3%

 

2.74%
4.86%
8.31%
8.48%
10.37%

 

The Census Bureau website states the following:

“The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the “official” turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here.

The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. According to investigative reporter Greg Palast, government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots.

Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure. In 13 states the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by 730,000 votes. The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k). Apparently more votes were padded than suppressed in the 13 states. But the net discrepancy does not contain the necessary information to calculate the actual number of uncounted and padded votes.

There are many combinations which would provide the net number. For example, of the 3.4m vote difference, 4.0m could have been suppressed (uncounted) and 0.6m padded (stuffed). Or 5.0m suppressed and 1.6m padded. In Florida, the least onerous case would be if the total 238k discrepancy was due to vote padding. But it is far more likely that vote padding occurred in Republican districts while vote suppression took place in heavily Democratic minority districts. The net 238k difference could have been due to 338k padded and 100k suppressed votes.

The Election Calculator

2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 

 
 

2004 Calculated True Vote

 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million

 

Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42

 

Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38

 

Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80

 

Deaths

2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41

 

Alive

52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39

 

Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13

 

Total Votes
Cast in '04

25.62
49.70
46.60
  3.82

125.74
True Vote

 

'Voted 2000'
Weight

20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74

 

Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9

 

Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73 

 

Sensitivity  Analysis
Kerry National Vote

Kerry Share of
Gore Voters

Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)

53.2%

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95%
93%
91%
89%
87%

54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%

54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%

54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%

55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%

55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%

 

Kerry Margin (millions)

9.87

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95%
93%
91%
89%
87%

11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8

12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9

13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9

14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9

15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9

 

Refer to source for three other Sensitivity Analyses on Kerry's National Vote.

Required Bush share of returning Gore voters: 2000-2004 uncounted vote scenarios

Most likely scenario:
       2000/2004 U.S. Vote Census estimates & the 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13047 random selection, 1% MoE):
       Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Least likely scenario:
       U.S. Vote Census estimates and the 'forced' Final NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13660 respondents):
       Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Assumptions
       • 1.22% annual voter mortality
       • 95% of 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004
       • Final NEP vote shares:
          Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004:   Bush required 18.1% of returning Gore Voters
          Uncounted votes not included:   Bush required 16.3% of returning Gore Voters

          Refer to source for "Final NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations.

       • 12:22am NEP vote shares:
          Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004:   Bush required 21.5% of returning Gore Voters
          Uncounted votes not included:   Bush required 20.0% of returning Gore Voters

          Refer to source for "12:22am NEP 'Voted 2000' shares" Data and Calculations.

Calculation of Switched Votes

Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Given:
125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)
122.29m votes recorded
3.45m votes uncounted

Assume:
2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry
0.87% annual mortality
95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

Calculate:
The approximate number of Kerry votes which were switched to Bush.
True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)

S = 4.49  =  T − R − U  =  66.10 − 59.03 − 2.58
Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Switched vote rate:
SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8%

True Vote Reconciliation

 
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

Recorded
59.027
62.040
  1.228

122.30

Share
75%
24%
1%

100%

 

Uncounted
2.584
0.827
0.034

3.445

 

(Adjusted)
61.611
62.867
  1.262

125.74

 

Switched
+4.488
−4.488
   0.000

   0.000

Share
+6.79%
−7.69%
  0.00%

  0.00%

 

True Vote
66.097
58.375
  1.262

125.74

 

Share
52.57%
46.43%
  1.01%

100.0%

 

 
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

 

VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS
(Votes in thousands)

• NET UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE
  
  Kerry
  Bush
  Other
  
  Total
  75%:
  24%:
  1%:
  
  100%:
  2,582
  826
  34
  
  3,443
  
  
  
  
  (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)
   
  
  
• SWITCHED VOTES
  4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were switched to Bush

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION

True Vote
Uncounted
Net
Switched   
Recorded

66,097
-2,582
63,515
-4,488
59,027

100.0%
  3.91%
96.09%
  6.79%
89.30%

 

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE

 

True Vote (000s)

Electoral Vote (EV)

Recorded Vote-Count
Change
True Vote
  shares

Kerry
59,027
  7,070
66,097
52.57%

Bush
62,040
-3,662
58,378
46.43%

Kerry
252
  97
336

Bush
286
  -97
202

 

BASE CASE SUMMARY

Switched votes: 6.8%
Uncounted Votes: 3,442 (000s)
Uncounted Alloocation: 75%-K 24%-B 1%-O

Uncounted %

75%
24%
1%
2.74%

 

Kerry
Bush
Other
Total

Recorded

59027
62040
1228
122295

48.27%
50.73%
1.00%
100.0%

 

Uncounted

2582
826
34
3442

 

Adjusted

61609
62866
1262
125737

49.0%
50.0%
1.0%
100.0%

2.11%
0.68%
0.03%
2.81%

 

Switched

+4488
−4488
0
0

 

True Vote

66097
58375
1262
125737

Share

52.57%
46.43%
1.01%
100.0%

Kerry
Bush
Other
Total

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I

Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)
(Kerry 75% share of uncounted votes)
 
           Recorded Share    Recorded  Vote    Kerry   Electoral Vote
           Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Margin   Kerry    Bush    States which
Recorded   48.27%   50.73%   59027    62040    -3013    252      286     flipped to Bush
SVR
6.8%       52.57%   46.43%   66097    58383    7714     336      202      CO FL IA MO NV NM OH
6.5%       52.42%   46.58%   65906    58570    7336     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH
6.0%       52.15%   46.84%   65575    58901    6675     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH
5.0%       51.63%   47.37%   64914    59562    5353     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH
 
4.0%       51.10%   47.90%   64253    60223    4031     325      213      CO FL IA NV NM OH
3.0%       50.58%   48.42%   63592    60883    2709     289      249      IA NV NM
2.0%       50.05%   48.95%   62931    61544    1387     289      249      IA NV NM
1.0%       49.52%   49.47%   62270    62205    65       264      274      IA NM
0.0%       49.00%   50.00%   61609    62866    -1257    264      274      IA NM

Refer to source for:

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV
Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin

State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes

(in thousands)

         Recorded Vote                          Uncounted  Switched    TRUE Vote
         Total    Kerry Bush     Kerry   Bush   Kerry Bush   Kerry   Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Margin   EVote
         122295   59027 62040    48.27% 50.73%  2582   826   4488    66097    58378    52.57%   46.43%   Change   Flip
 
AL       1877     694   1176     37.0%  62.7%    42    14    47       784      1142     40.5%    59.1%    6.4%
AK       307      111   191      36.2%  62.2%    7     2     8        125      186      39.7%    58.7%    6.3%
AZ       1998     894   1104     44.7%  55.3%    31    10    61       986      1053     48.3%    51.6%    7.0%
AR       1049     470   573      44.8%  54.6%    19    6     32       521      547      48.5%    50.9%    7.2%
CA       12255    6745  5510     55.0%  45.0%    246   79    458      7449     5131     59.2%    40.8%    8.6%
 
CO       2116     1002  1101     47.4%  52.0%    31    10    68       1101     1043     51.0%    48.3%    7.3%     9
CT       1564     857   694      54.8%  44.4%    26    8     58       941      644      58.9%    40.3%    8.4%
DC       226      203   21       89.8%  9.3%     10    3     14       227      10       94.8%     4.3%    4.4%
DE       373      200   172      53.6%  46.1%    8     2     14       221      161      57.7%    42.0%    8.5%
FL       7582     3584  3965     47.3%  52.3%    140   45    243      3967     3766     51.1%    48.5%    7.5%     27
 
GA       3280     1366  1914     41.6%  58.4%    81    26    93       1540     1847     45.4%    54.5%    7.1%
HI       426      232   194      54.5%  45.5%    18    6     16       265      184      59.0%    40.9%    9.7%
ID       590      181   409      30.7%  69.3%    7     2     12       201      399      33.5%    66.5%    4.9%
IL       5238     2892  2346     55.2%  44.8%    99    32    196      3187     2181     59.4%    40.6%    8.6%
IN       2448     969   1479     39.6%  60.4%    37    12    66       1072     1425     42.9%    57.1%    6.3%
 
IA       1500     742   752      49.5%  50.1%    19    6     50       811      708      53.2%    46.4%    7.4%     7
KS       1180     435   736      36.9%  62.4%    18    6     30       482      712      40.1%    59.2%    5.9%
KY       1791     713   1069     39.8%  59.7%    26    8     48       788      1029     43.1%    56.4%    6.3%
LA       1929     820   1102     42.5%  57.1%    49    16    56       925      1062     46.4%    53.2%    7.3%
ME       735      397   330      54.0%  44.9%    9     3     27       433      306      57.9%    41.0%    8.0%
 
MD       2370     1334  1024     56.3%  43.2%    60    19    91       1484     952      60.6%    38.9%    9.1%
MA       2875     1804  1071     62.7%  37.3%    46    15    122      1972     963      67.2%    32.8%    9.4%
MI       4816     2479  2313     51.5%  48.0%    89    28    168      2736     2173     55.4%    44.0%    8.0%
MN       2811     1445  1347     51.4%  47.9%    41    13    98       1584     1262     55.3%    44.0%    7.8%
MS       1146     458   685      40.0%  59.8%    31    10    31       520      664      43.8%    55.9%    7.0%
 
MO       2715     1259  1456     46.4%  53.6%    45    15    85       1390     1385     50.1%    49.9%    7.3%     11
MT       446      174   266      39.0%  59.6%    6     2     12       192      256      42.3%    56.4%    6.1%
NE       773      254   513      32.9%  66.4%    11    3     17       282      499      35.8%    63.4%    5.3%
NV       821      397   419      48.4%  51.0%    14    5     27       438      397      52.2%    47.2%    7.6%     5
NH       675      340   331      50.4%  49.0%    8     3     23       371      311      54.1%    45.3%    7.5%
 
NJ       3600     1911  1670     53.1%  46.4%    72    23    130      2113     1563     57.2%    42.3%    8.4%
NM       751      370   377      49.3%  50.2%    13    4     25       408      356      53.1%    46.4%    7.7%     5
NY       7377     4314  2963     58.5%  40.2%    158   50    293      4764     2720     62.8%    35.9%    9.1%
NC       3487     1526  1961     43.8%  56.2%    74    24    104      1704     1881     47.5%    52.5%    7.2%
ND       312      111   197      35.6%  63.1%    4     1     8        123      191      38.7%    60.1%    5.7%
 
OH       5601     2741  2860     48.9%  51.1%    94    30    186      3021     2704     52.8%    47.2%    7.6%     20
OK       1464     504   960      34.4%  65.6%    28    9     34       566      935      37.7%    62.3%    5.8%
OR       1810     943   867      52.1%  47.9%    26    8     64       1033     811      56.0%    44.0%    7.9%
PA       5732     2938  2794     51.3%  48.7%    93    30    199      3231     2624     55.2%    44.8%    7.9%
RI       434      260   169      59.9%  38.9%    7     2     18       284      153      64.2%    34.7%    9.0%
 
SC       1606     662   938      41.2%  58.4%    38    12    45       745      905      45.0%    54.6%    7.0%
SD       386      149   233      38.6%  60.4%    6     2     10       165      225      41.9%    57.1%    6.1%
TN       2429     1036  1384     42.7%  57.0%    45    14    70       1151     1328     46.3%    53.4%    6.9%
TX       7360     2833  4527     38.5%  61.5%    129   41    192      3155     4376     41.9%    58.1%    6.3%
UT       916      241   664      26.3%  72.5%    12    4     16       269      651      28.9%    69.9%    4.4%
 
VT       309      184   121      59.5%  39.2%    4     1     12       200      110      63.8%    34.9%    8.7%
VA       3172     1455  1717     45.9%  54.1%    68    22    99       1622     1640     49.7%    50.3%    7.5%
WA       2838     1510  1305     53.2%  46.0%    47    15    103      1660     1218     57.2%    42.0%    8.2%
WV       755      327   424      43.3%  56.2%    9     3     22       359      405      46.7%    52.7%    6.6%
WI       2984     1490  1478     49.9%  49.5%    44    14    101      1635     1391     53.7%    45.7%    7.6%
WY       242      71    168      29.3%  69.4%    3     1     5        79       164      32.0%    66.7%    4.8% 

Padded Votes

State          Kerry      Bush   Other    Total   Padded     Cast Padded%Cast
Alaska           111       191      11      313       20      293       6.70%
Colorado       1,002     1,101      27    2,130       33    2,097       1.60%
Connecticut      857       694      27    1,579       55    1,524       3.60%
Florida        3,584     3,965      62    7,610      238    7,372       3.20%
Idaho            181       409       8      598       13      585       2.30%
Maine            397       330      14      741        5      736       0.70%
Michigan       2,479     2,314      46    4,839       21    4,818       0.40%
NewHampshire     341       331       6      678        1      677       0.10%
Ohio           2,741     2,860      27    5,628      143    5,485       2.60%
SouthDakota      149       233       6      388       10      378       2.70%
Tennessee      1,036     1,384      16    2,437      118    2,319       5.10%
Virginia       1,455     1,717      27    3,198       64    3,134       2.10%
Washington     1,510     1,305      44    2,859        8    2,851       0.30%
 
Total         15,843    16,833     322   32,999      730   32,269       2.20%

Uncounted Votes

State          Kerry      Bush   Other    Total    Unctd     Cast  Unctd%Cast
Alabama          694     1,176      13    1,883      177    2,060       8.60%
Arizona          894     1,104      15    2,013      226    2,239      10.10%
Arkansas         470       573      12    1,055       85    1,140       7.50%
California     6,745     5,510     165   12,420      387   12,807       3.00%
Delaware         200       172       3      375       10      385       2.60%
D. C.            203        21       3      228       42      270      15.70%
Georgia        1,366     1,914      21    3,302       30    3,332       0.90%
Hawaii           232       194       3      429        4      433       0.90%
Illinois       2,892     2,346      37    5,274      398    5,672       7.00%
Indiana          969     1,479      20    2,468      130    2,598       5.00%
Iowa             742       752      13    1,507       15    1,522       1.00%
Kansas           435       736      16    1,188        0    1,188       0.02%
Kentucky         713     1,069      14    1,796      134    1,930       6.90%
Louisiana        820     1,102      21    1,943      124    2,067       6.00%
Maryland       1,334     1,025      27    2,387       26    2,413       1.10%
Massachusetts  1,804     1,071      37    2,912      173    3,085       5.60%
Minnesota      1,445     1,347      37    2,828       59    2,887       2.00%
Mississippi      458       685       9    1,152      111    1,263       8.80%
Missouri       1,259     1,456      16    2,731       84    2,815       3.00%
Montana          174       266      11      450       32      482       6.60%
Nebraska         254       513      11      778       15      793       1.90%
Nevada           397       419      14      830       41      871       4.80%
New Jersey     1,911     1,670      30    3,612       81    3,693       2.20%
New Mexico       371       377       8      756       81      837       9.60%
New York       4,314     2,963     114    7,391      307    7,698       4.00%
N Carolina     1,526     1,961      14    3,501      138    3,639       3.80%
North Dakota     111       197       5      313       17      330       5.20%
Oklahoma         504       960       0    1,464       77    1,541       5.00%
Oregon           943       867      27    1,837       87    1,924       4.50%
Pennsylvania   2,938     2,794      38    5,770       75    5,845       1.30%
Rhode Island     260       169       8      437       30      467       6.40%
S Carolina       662       938      18    1,618      281    1,899      14.80%
Texas          2,833     4,527      51    7,411      539    7,950       6.80%
Utah             241       664      23      928       94    1,022       9.20%
Vermont          184       121       7      312        4      316       1.20%
West Virginia    327       424       6      756       42      798       5.30%
Wisconsin      1,490     1,478      29    2,997       13    3,010       0.40%
Wyoming           71       168       5      243        4      247       1.40%
 
Total         43,185    45,207     903   89,295    4,173   93,468       4.70%

[texpatriot2004]

1. Uncounted votes alone were not the reason for the difference.

Switched votes + * fuzzy math + uncounted votes + vote flipping electronic machines = election fraud

[DeeDeeNY]

2. This is why we shouldn't be counting chickens before they're hatched

[tiptoe]

3. especially

in New York!

[mzmolly]

4. But the pre-election polls showed a very close race:

This day in 2004: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html

Today: http://electoral-vote.com/

I do not think the R's are above theft, and I worry about PA, specifically but I do believe that 04 was close, regardless.

[Joe Chi Minh]

5. So you don't believe the figures of the Election Fraud Beginners' Guide?

You think it was close? On what basis? What figures do you have?

[mzmolly]

6. Most pre-election polls were tight. NBC had Bush ahead by 1 point,

as did the rolled up average from Real Clear Politics. Exit polls can perhaps be explained by Bush voters being less likely to share who they voted for.

[Joe Chi Minh]

7. But that was the point the OP was making. As for Republican voters being more diffident about

declaring their allegiance than Democrats, well, that has been discounted by serious commentators as gratuitous conjecture.

In fact, I believe the opposite to obtain: the Republicans would have been as keen to tout their political allegiance after voting as before - arguably more so. And indeed more so than Democrats. Republicans normally tend to be more worldly and, accordingly, more worldly-wise and politically pro-active.

[mzmolly]

8. I don't see that point being made? Many older voters feel their votes

are private. Additionally, I'm not sure what serious commentators have dismissed xyz as conjecture, but again the pre-election polls today are vastly different than they were eight years ago when polling averages showed Bush ahead by a hair.

[tiptoe]

9. See

Ch 3 and 4 of source re Pre-election Polling.

"Bush voters being less likely to share who they voted for"

"reluctant Bush responders" Argument:
http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#DEBUNK_RBR

[mzmolly]

10. Sorry, I believe my lying eyes. Poll after poll showed that the 04 election

was tight. Does that mean they didn't "steal" the election? No. But I think it's apples and oranges compared to this election.

I am concerned about possible theft in PA. I am concerned that they may try, but I don't think 04 is in any way comparable to our situation today KWIM? I hope we'll be too far ahead for a theft to occur. ;)