Final Electoral Vote Guess Poll

[norepubsin08]

How many EV's do you Obama will end up with?

[baldguy]

1. 414

[Christian30]

2. I think it would be higher

except for Repuke dirty tricks. :)

[norepubsin08]

3. me too

that's why I'm predicting between 330-349 example: I think Florida is going to be stolen.

[dccrossman]

4. Still too much fraud can easily occur

I think that Florida will definitely be stolen, and that Ohio might only be saved because the Secretary of State is a Democrat, but she'll have to save it while surrounded by screaming hordes.

Edit: I voted 300-315. =)

[WallStreetNobody]

5. I give 354 to Obama

I give him the major swing states - OH, PA, FL, NC - those first two are pretty likely I think and the latter two are within reach (polls are effectively tied). Plus I give us 1 EV from Nebraska. What's great is that even if he loses those 4 states (which is unlikely) he's still at 271. The rest I'm very confident on, VA is a lock from all the polling data.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

6. My guess (hopeful) is 370

Unless they steal some of the states I'm counting on for Obama. Actually if there were NO fraud I think it would be about 417, conservatively!

[Dogmudgeon]

7. About 320

The scenarios I have been considering assume 0%, 20%, 50%, and 80% "thefts" of vote differences by Republicans. The results averaged out at about 320 EV.

If I knew how to write a program to do it automatically, I'd be able to factor every combination of states, including every individual voting district, but I think I'm close enough.

www.fivethirtyeight.com has been predicting around 350 EV, but that's a strict statistical analysis. I would be surprised if Obama took more than 350 EV ... but pleasantly so. > 400 EV would be more pleasant still.

The real action may be in the legislative and local races. People who decide to vote for McCain at the last minute may vote Democratically down-ballot as a form of compensation. It's starting to look like a bloodbath.

--p!

[atmeratus_x]

8. One more...

I'm hoping for 300+ electoral and a clear majority in the popular. At least enough to fend off attempts to steal another election and enough to preempt any "they stole it" accusations from the other side.

I'll never forget years ago before the Super Bowl a sportscaster asked Joe Montana how many points the 49'ers would have to score to beat the other team. His reply was, "One more than they do."

I wouldn't be unhappy with that...

:kick: