States To Watch, And When To Watch Them

[WilliamPitt]

Via Taegan Goddard, a pretty spot-on breakdown from a political science teacher in Utah:

http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting/paths.html

States to Watch, and When

7:00 PM EST
One of the keys to look for early on election night will be Virginia. If the model is correct and Obama wins Virginia, the night will become substantially more difficult for McCain. He will need to sweep those gray states, and then some. The polls in Indiana will all be closed by this time as well. If Obama manages to pull off an upset here (the model only gives him an 18.2% chance of winning), then it should be a very quick night.

7:30 PM EST
Ohio and North Carolina, then become absolutely imperative. If McCain fails to win both of these states, he will have pretty much run out of options; there simply aren't enough electoral votes that the model considers truly in play to get him across the goal-line.

8:00 PM EST Provided that McCain is still holding on at this point, Missouri and Florida become the next focal point. These are both must-win states for McCain. If he fails to win both of them, his night is, for all intents and purposes, over.

9:00 PM EST If the states mentioned so far have all gone to McCain or are still considered too close to call by 9:00 PM, then New Mexico and Colorado become front and center. If McCain doesn't pull out a victory in Pennsylvania they are must-wins for McCain.

Ultimately, McCain's path to victory is built on a very shaky foundation according to the model. If just one of the pieces falls, the game is pretty much over.

The rest of that page has some good tables breaking down all the data by state.

[Missy Vixen]

1. First to K&R!

Will, here's to tomorrow! :woohoo:

Julie

[WilliamPitt]

3. Tomorrow is already today here in Boston

Sleep? BWAH HA HA HA HA HA!!!

No, I'll sleep. A little. Maybe.

Ha. No fucking way.

:toast:

[Missy Vixen]

4. Will, you gotta' sleep. Just a little.

Pace yourself, man.

Just think: We will wake up tomorrow morning, and it will be the beginning of the end for them. Finally. :hug:

Julie

[WilliamPitt]

5. I will

Any minute now, actually. Just getting past the HOLY SHIT IT'S FUCKING TUESDAY adrenaline rush/detonation I get every two years at this time. If you go back and search DU for my posts around midnight on the election days of '02, '04 and '06, you'll probably find several posts similar to the ones I've made tonight. I usually run out of steam before 2am.

It'll pass. ;)

[Missy Vixen]

7. I'm taking deep breaths and telling myself I have to be calm

It's going to be a very long day, and I'm going to be carb-loading later.

Can you believe this day is finally here? Seriously. We've waited eight goddamn years for it.

Julie

[Viva_La_Revolution]

2. Thanks Will! I'm trying to get my ducks all in a row for tomorrow...

You've been very helpful. :)

[Gregorian]

6. Yep. This is a starting point for keeping track.

Or just watching the damage that is inflicted. Mwa hahahaha.

[GreenPoet64]

8. Thanks for posting this! n/t

[misanthrope]

9. Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio...

...will likely tell the tale.

In a way, I hope they are close enough that it doesn't dissuade voters in western states from carrying through with their responsibility.

[bigtree]

11. Virginia

I saw one of our Maryland workers off to his polling place in Va., bless his heart. Va. will tell the tale for me. Then Florida and Ohio will tell me if there's going to be icing on the cake.

[me b zola]

14. I thought that I just heard on msnbc that they won't count Ohio's early votes

...until tomorrow. Did anyone else hear this? If true, does anybody know the percent that voted early in Ohio?

[WilliamPitt]

10. .

[wryter2000]

12. What about Pennsylvania?

Doesn't McCain need to steal Pennsylvania to have any chance?

On edit: okay, it does mention PA, but in a backhanded way. My question still stands, though. When do the polls close in PA?

(Hoping to know by the time I go home from work in CA if we've won or not.)

[tjwash]

13. Pennsyltucky and Nevada...the fix is in on those 2 states

nt