Realclearpolitics: If I'm reading this right, McCain has to take all his solid, all leaning, and

[Danieljay]

EVERY toss up state to win this election.

Am I correct here?

[Muttocracy]

1. yup yup. nt

[tekisui]

2. Yep, he has to run the board, and make up big deficits,

it ain't gonna happen!

[AldebTX]

3. Thats What They are Counting ON

We need our vote to overwhelm any shenanigans.

[SoCalDem]

4. pretty much..

:rofl:

the minimalist map needed for Obama win:

NC & VA are early reporting states.. if he gets those two..it's O V E R

[bigtree]

5. yeppers

the rats will have to do some fancy rowing to keep him from sinking

[Stinky The Clown]

6. Yeahprettymuch ......

... and the media is dutifully saying "it isn't over".

[saltpoint]

7. Pretty much, yes. All toss-ups plus at least one takeaway from

the Kerry totals, plus interventions by the Avengers, the Fantastic Four, the Justice League, the ghost of Lee Atwater, numerous lightning bolts, the Mormon Tabernacle Choir, and Billy Jack -- just to be in contention.

[gratuitous]

8. And he has to take a couple of leaning Democratic states

Depending on what realclearpolitics counts as a "toss up," McCain's going to need something just this side of divine intervention to break 200 electoral votes. If he loses any of Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, he's cooked.

[L. Coyote]

9. Here is how McCain is going to win this one. It's easy

Check this graph out first:
http://hacks.ciphergoth.org/test-scenario/margin-bargraph

It is scripted to update automatically, I believe, so it is not an image file, hence I cannot place it here.
It also has rollovers, so you can mouseover states for more details.

So, mouseover Virginia and tell me who wins if McCain has 7% beter turnout.
Next, how about just 1% beter turnout in North Carolina.

Add 6% better in Colorado, 4% better in Nevada and a mere 3% better in Ohio.

That is all it will take to turn this into a McCain victory.

How do you say Vice-President Palin? Simple, TURNOUT!


OR, just perhaps, the Dems will have learned this lesson from the last eight years.


ø„¸¨°º¤ø„¸ ¸„ø¤º°¨ ¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ I VOTED ¸„ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ OBAMA °º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¸„ø¤º° ¨¨°º¤ø„¸¨°º¤

[AlexinVA]

10. He'd have to win all 10 toss-up states and then some...

Looking at that map, he would need to win all the solid red, leaning red and toss-up states:

10 Toss-up states:
VA
NC
GA
FL
OH
IN
MO
ND
MT
AZ

and then take away a state(s) that is/are solid or leaning Obama for an additional 10 electoral votes.

5 Leaning Obama states:
PA (21 EVs)
MN (10 EVs)
CO (9 EVs)
NM (5 EVs)
NV (5 EVs)

[soleft]

11. I have solids at 238 Obama McCain 132 (10% or higher)

So Obama only has to hold onto Pennsylvania and any combo that gives him the additional 11 EV's.

I don't see McCain's path.