Alaska and Minnesota Senate races - were they legit?

[SoCalDemocrat]

Franken lost by 500 votes? The state will have a mandatory recount.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gMpTmr96V5hKIfyHT4Av4jsVQgrQD948RH301

Stevens going into last night was way behind in the polls, and even as a convict he manages a huge comeback? I think that is highly unlikely.

We need election results. Exit polls, preferably indepdentent results and not the APs results they modify to match election results.

Come on DU, pitch in and start digging!

The polls had the (D) Begich ahead and that was before it was made public that Stevens would be convicted.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/senate/Stevens(i)-Begich-Alaska-Senate-Race.html

NYTimes Exit Polling Results
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html


Alaska uses electronic voting. Pundits suspected the felony conviction would drop Stevens another 20 points. Instead he gained ground? Very suspicoius. 5% of votes went to 3rd party candidates in such a highly publicized and hotly contested race? That seems unlikely.

(R) pollsters were at a loss to explain the sudden big turnaround.

http://www.adn.com/elections/story/579036.html

"Victories by Stevens and Young would defy pre-election polls, which showed Begich leading Stevens, 84, who last week was convicted of failing to report gifts on federal disclosure forms. The polls showed Berkowitz leading Young as well.

Anchorage pollster and consultant Dave Dittman, who generally works for Republicans, said he was as surprised as anyone by the results. He issued his own poll earlier Tuesday showing both Stevens and Young trailing their opponents."

[d_b]

1. don't know about MN

but I don't trust that Stevens race. We've been diebolded before http://dwb.adn.com/news/alaska/story/7386582p-7298824c.html

Alaska is the most corrupt, Republican shit hole in the nation.

[SoCalDemocrat]

7. They need to run and re-run the machines

To demonstrate they either work or don't. I suspect we won't get the same results if we re-run them multiple times.

[Eric J in MN]

2. If you're suggesting a hand-count of Minnesota ballots...

...you're in luck, because that is what is going to happen.

[Blue_In_AK]

3. We still have approximately 50,000 ballots

left to be counted, so Mark may pull this out yet. He told Phil Munger at Progressive Alaska that he expects to ultimately win by about 8 votes. :rofl: Alaska is known for close elections, so it could happen.

I'm rather surprised by the results myself, but the Republicans came out in force because of Sarah.

[d_b]

5. nah

he'll probably win by 15 :D

[SoCalDemocrat]

9. I don't buy the Sarah argument

Many polls were run after Sarah Palin joined the ticket, and they all had Stevens way behind. This was all before the FBI charges came out into the open. There is no way this race was legitimate. Something stinks here.

[BeFree]

4. CNN has great exit poll pages

The reason why exits in 2004 were so bad was that the numbers were adjusted days later to match the official 'machined' results.

When they did, those 'adjusted' numbers claimed that 110% of bush's 2000 voters voted for him again in 2004. That's why people don't trust exit polls after the numbers are adjusted. Today they pretty much remain raw, so grab 'em while you can.

[SoCalDemocrat]

8. I don't believe that is the case

What I have read is they hold them tight and adjust them first, then post them after making their adjustments. I've never read anything to suggest they are posting raw results or ensuring the integrity of the results. The AP Exit Polls are unreliable. If we can get raw data, then that would be useful and we should post it here and start analyzing it precinct by precinct.

[SoCalDemocrat]

14. Here are the facts on the exit poll data as it stood in 2004

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/the_raw_exit_po.html

Ruy Teixeira has access to the raw data and said (from 2004)

"You are absolutely right that there are no "intermediate" weights provided by the exit poll releases typically. You get one big weight which reflects all the adjustments that have been made to the survey and no guidance at all about how to construct any of the intermediate adjustments. There is no reason to believe that things will be any different this year which is one reason why I've been puzzled about people's fervent desire to see the "raw" data released. The raw data, if they are simply accompanied by the final weight that aligns the raw data with the election outcome, won't solve the questions people are asking these days because it won't allow you to recreate where the data were at different steps along the way. I think what people really want to know, at a minimum, is what the data looked like after standard sampling/turnout weighting was done and before it was finally weighted to the election outcome. If this year's release of the raw data + final weight is like previous years', it won't tell you that."

[Zookeeper]

6. MN runs pretty clean elections. But, there is always the....

possibility that a number in a count total was transposed. Also, a recount will look at ballots that weren't counted because a voter circled or checked the name of a candidate instead of filling in the box.

The recount is required by law, unless Franken wants to concede. (Don't concede, Al!!!!)

[MarjorieG]

10. Alaska had a strange 2004 results, with huge number more votes than people.

I don't know if or how, but they need to look into this for sake of Begich-who is really good...

[SoCalDemocrat]

11. We need raw exit poll data for Alaska - please post here

Please post any exit poll data you have for Alaska, preferably raw. Link any sources! We need to dig into this Senate race.

EDIT:

I just found this source. Please download and start looking for anomalies http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/senate_polls.html

This is all I've located so far http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/exit-polls-2008-see-the-f_n_140986.html

[Blue_In_AK]

12. My husband and I both filled out exit poll sheets

as did our friend who celebrated Obama's victory with us last night, but I haven't seen any results. I'm sure people will be poring over them. The Stevens result particularly seems kind of fishy. I always had my doubts that Ethan Berkowitz would take down Don Young.

[SoCalDemocrat]

15. I still cannot find the raw exit poll data

I cannot find any exit poll data being published for the Alaska Senate race. I hate the lack of transparency.

[SoCalDemocrat]

13. Check this out

Looks pretty skewed from the actual results http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Graphs/alaska.html

[Blue_In_AK]

16. It could be that the late early voters will turn this around.

People who voted early between Thursday and yesterday haven't been counted. I know my daughter at least voted early on Friday, so there's another Democratic vote right there. I'm sure she's not alone.

[SoCalDemocrat]

19. Did you vote on machines?

Anyone you know forced to cast a provisional ballot? Any other issues you've seen or heard about?

[Blue_In_AK]

20. We have paper ballots and Optiscan

There was this post in the Alaska forum http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=138&topic_id=2694&mesg_id=2694.

[GreenTea]

17. Alaska never is, they are right behind Georgia as the worst voting machine manipulations in the US

[SoCalDemocrat]

18. Can we get any data points on this?

I cannot find any exit polling data, raw data, stories from voters, etc.

We need to work together here and find the information.

[Johonny]

21. Probably

The independent candidate was pretty popular in Minn. It's not like the winner was a majority winner. Some states have run off laws for these situations. In Alaska, what can you say. It's a one party dominated system that brought you the horribly unqualified Sarah Palin to office.