Why the GOP filibuster isn't going to be a big problem.

[backscatter712]

OK, we didn't get 60 seats in the Senate. Some of us are howling about how the GOP's going to filibuster everything, like they did for the past two years since the Democrats retook Congress two years ago.

Here's why they won't be able to block us like they were until now.

1. The GOP's badly divided. We have the Romney folks putting knives in the back of Palin, the party moderates fighting with the hard-core extremists, the fundamentalists at war with the neo-cons, who are at war with the fiscal conservatives, who are at war with the xenophobes and nativists. The party will soon be leaderless - McCain got pwned hard, which pretty much destroys most of his political capital, and Bush is so radioactive that hardly anyone wants to be seen with him. And yes, in all these fighting factions, there will be the Obamacans.

2. Obama's extremely popular - so popular that even many of his political opponents don't hate him all that much. Granted, the racists and xenophobes and religious nuts will hate his guts, but hey, Powell endorsed him, along with a bunch of other Republicans. Some of them are calculating that they'll get more mileage by riding Obama's coattails than by playing ball with their own party. Obama's got the bully pulpit, which Bush so effectively used to punk us Democrats. Obama's gonna make far better use of that bully pulpit, and the Republicans will have little choice but to cave when he demands that legislation get through the Senate and make it to his desk. A lot of Republicans won't want anything to do with a filibuster if Obama's pushing hard for a piece of legislation, especially if it's popular with voters - they won't want to be labeled as obstructionist, so in many cases, the filibuster won't even happen.

3. There aren't many votes required to break a filibuster now. It used to be that assuming the Democrats voted straight party-line, they'd get 51 votes, which meant that nine Republicans would have to defect in order to get cloture on a filibuster. Now, we've got 55 Democrats, plus 2 independents (we'll assume that Lieberman would vote with us, even though he is a douchenozzle.) That means we only need 3 GOP defections, or four if Lieberman went Repuke on us, and we can entice defections by promising things like tasty earmarks if they play ball with us.

Don't sweat it. With Obama's leadership, the GOP's lack of leadership and infighting, and using the Republican's own greed against them, we'll be able to beat a lot of filibusters now.

[tulsakatz]

1. true, it's going to be like a civil war in the GOP......

...for awhile. It's going to take them awhile to even decide on what they're going to do, not to mention how they plan to achieve it!

The fundamentalists didn't work for them this time because they played so strongly to their base.....or what they perceived as their base. And that drove the moderates away.

So it will take awhile before they can even decide on how to proceed....

[democrat_patriot]

2. I agree.

I also think that the Repukes only chance is to let us do whatever we want, and hope that the economy doesn't improve, middle east is a mess, can't get health care passed etc. (Don't even mention terrorist attack).

And than they say "See? Liberalism doesn't work."

They will be saying this on day 101 of Obama's presidency anyway....but they can hope to say in 2012, "are you better off than 4 years ago?"

Obama needs to run the Executive Office like his campaign - perfectly. The MSM is dusting off it's collective magnifying glass (like under Clinton) and will be ready to pounce on any misstep. Fortunately Obama is very popular right now.

[Juche]

3. Other reasons

4. McConnell almost lost his seat, so he may be more timid now. He was reelected, but in 2002 he won with a 30% margin. In 2008 he won with a 4% margin. So on some level he must be afraid of the response from the electorate. McConnell was the one who headed the filibusters

5. The filibusters were also done just to keep Bush from having to veto the bills. So with Bush gone a major motive disappears

6. There is always 2010. The GOP picked up 4 seats in 2004. THese guys will be up for reelection.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2004#Senate_contests_in_2004

There were 5 races that went GOP went very close (under 5%) in AK, FL, KY, NC & SD. There were a few more that went GOP by 10%-ish

FOr example, like I said above, McConnell of KY won in 2002 with a 30% margin but only had a 4% margin in 2008. So if Bunning won in 2004 in KY with a 2% margin in 2004 what'll happen to him in 2010?

Personally I think we'll get UHC, alternative energy and an end to Iraq but not EFCA. I think EFCA will come in 2011 if/when we get 61 seats or so.

[blm]

4. Senators like Lugar and Snowe won't have to be answering to Bush - and Lugar is VERY CLOSE to Biden.

I don't think the GOPs left in leadership will get the handful of reasonable GOP senators to dance to their tune.

[peacetalksforall]

5. Good thoughts, but I notice in many posts this very important fact ...

Everything the Republican Congress has done for the last eight years was to bow to Cheney.

People keep saying Bush, but Bush means Cheney. When these Congresspeople were called to the WH, everyone assumed George spoke to them and they all bowed. More likely, and what I believe is fact is Cheney told Bush to call them and what to say.

In addition, the Republican Congress had already committed to a grand slam - everyone was working in tandem to reach their goals - corportate takeover and privitization, defamation of Democrats wherever they could, gifts to the religious crazies with events like we already witnessed - graduates of Pat Robertson's law school getting very important positions allowing them to lead in the firing of Attorney Generals to get 100% across the nation team players - to the point where it almost seemed that AG Gonzales took orders from them. There is no end to the promises made to the crazies by buying their vote. The gifts to the corporations meant invasion, destruction, pillage, torture, torment, massacres, maiming, exile, - they smashed Iraq and contaminated it. They messed with our kids and our minds. They virtually did change our reality.

Senators like Snowe caved time after time. How can that be? Lock step.

I have seen no signs that Cheney is going away. These Republican Congresspeople are order takers. They have had eight solid years of taking orders. From whom will they take them now? McConnell and Boehner? Are they the idea and position people? Are they the direct conduits to the corporations and foundations - the barons? I don't think so. They need to be fed and guided. They need instruction.

Cheney is the link to the corporations. Who knows who is and has been the link to the Reverends. Probably Cheney remotely, by petition from the Reverends. Favor and Christian takeover for votes. Libby, Rove, Addington were/are the coordinators. They also coordinated with the think tanks who created the project plans and wrote the documents, papers, proposals, including how to present it, market it, fight objections. Coordinate with various intelligence divistions and give orders, get funding. They have their own bank and comptrollers. How else would they do it?

If any of this is true, it will be evident in the way Republicans vote. Someone got their lock step working perfectly. Will it be the same now? Mostly for fun, some people have joked that their Congresspeople were under threat of blackmail, including some or all Dems. If yes, who is their intelligence network going to work for - are they going to be disbanded. Will the CIA and DIA become neutral and bi-partisan. The FBI has been a sell out for years - they assissted Republicans with the Clinton impeachment.

Of all these players - no one talks about our own - those who have willingly walked to the White House Oval Room when called. Those who cast their votes with the Republicans. Landrieau, the Nelsons, a mix of others, including Inouye. What about Feinstein?

All the networks talk about is Lieberman, if at all. The same on DU.

We have no idea where Dems are going to go. Go with their constituents? With the corporations? With the lobbyists?

We need more answers as to what constitutes change for all these so-called leaders. And we need to know their four and eight year goals? Who are the mavericks in the Dem Party going to serve. Will the DLC serve Obama?