2008 Landslide Denied -- Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll (TIA)

[tiptoe]

2008 Landslide Denied:  Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm

Nov 7, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 65–57m votes (53–46%). That’s a very solid mandate, but his True Vote is better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004. Remember the 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m)? The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current 8 million vote margin would increase to 18m, 80–62m — a landslide rivaling Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). View the Election Calculator projection below.

•••

Obama must have done better than the 53–46% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 55–43% (as projected by a few national pre-election polls).

•••

The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesn’t. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

•••




Full story: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=510524&mesg_id=510524

 

[tiptoe]

1. 2008 Election Calculator

2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the     True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%): a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a  7m vote margin.


2008 True and Recorded Vote
............ Obama   McCain Other  Total
True Vote     75.6   61.9   1.4    138.9
Vote Share    54.4%  44.5%  1.0%   100%

Uncounted     (3.1)  (.96)  (.08)  (4.17)
Switched      (2.3)  2.3    0.00   0.00

Recorded      70.2   63.3   1.3    134.7
Vote Share    52.1%  46.9%  1.0%   100%

2004 Calculated True Vote
 

 
 

2008 Calculated True Vote

Feasible 'Voted-2004'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 00/04' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '04

Kerry
Bush
Other

125.8
million

 

Calculated
True Vote

66.9
57.1
1.7

125.8

 

Deaths

3.2
2.8
0.1

6.0

 

Alive

63.7
54.3
1.7

119.7

 

Est '08 Turnout
of 'Voted 2004'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7

 

Total Votes
Cast in '08

25.1
60.6
51.6
  1.6

138.9
True Vote

 

'Voted 2004'
Weight

18.1%
43.6%
37.2%
1.1%

100.0%
138.9

2-pty

 

Obama

57%
91%
10%
64%

54.4%
75.6

55.0%

 

McCain

41%
8%
90%
17%

44.6%
61.9

45.0%

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.0%
1.4 

 

Refer to source for more on 2008 Election Calculator.

 

[tiptoe]

2. k!

[Moloch]

3. I think TruthIsAll's 15 minutes are up....

This sort of tin-foil hattery was really demoralizing to the Democratic Party. Now it is the freepers who are calling -- VOTE FRAUD!

[tiptoe]

4. I think you --like the Freepers-- blur the distinction between "Vote(r) Fraud" & "Election Fraud" nt

[Moloch]

9. What is it with you?

Nobody can disagree with you without being labeled a freeper? Haven't you been banned for that several times?

[tiptoe]

10. Didn't label you a "Freeper"...but you distract from "Election Fraud" by equating "VOTE/R FRAUD!"...

It's a Rovian/RW tactic to blur the distinction, so the their own anti-democracy efforts remain obscured.

HOAX of Voter Fraud charges against ACORN
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/oct/13/election-acorn-voter-fraud

...
The only problem? Despite the screaming wall-to-wall coverage of "Democratic voter fraud in 11 swing states" as seen on Fox News and even the once-respectable CNN, none of it's true. None of it.
...
If you can't win it, steal it. If you can't steal it, claim the other guy stole it. If you can't claim the other guy stole it (yet), say they're about to and then kick up smoke that maybe someone will believe you.
...
If it quacks like a duck, in this case, it's likely another Republican Acorn voter fraud lie. They haul it out every two years.
...
Getting the picture? It's a hoax. All of it.

But it's been an effective one, as it's served to distract from very real concerns about tens of thousands of voters who have been illegally purged from the voting rolls in dozens of states, as the New York Times reported in a remarkable front page investigative story
...
These real concerns of election fraud, such as voting roll purges, electronic voting machines that don't work and so much more that actually matters, have been obscured by the smoke and mirrors and sleight of hand of the Republican party's phoney Acorn voter fraud charade.
...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

5. OMC The Fascist Says Tell TIA To Give It A Rest. He's Sooooo 2004.

:rofl:

[tiptoe]

6. k!

[tritsofme]

7. Nice to see he is keeping his hobby up.

Its tough times selling vote fraud conspiracy theories around here these days.

[tiptoe]

8. "Its tough times selling vote fraud conspiracy theories here." Nope, and it's "Election Fraud"...

"Vote Fraud" and "Voter Fraud" are terms that distract from real issues of massive "Election Fraud". Rove sells "Vote(r) Fraud".

Election Fraud is not a difficult sell at all...except perhaps to those interested in covering it up with "Vote(r) Fraud" distractions.

Thank you for your concern, though.

:thumbsup:

[Moloch]

11. Look.

You enjoyed your status as an internet celebrity for four years, now its time for you to gracefully step aside.

Your posts provided solace to DUers who were upset by the outcome of the 2004 election. As you know, denial is the first stage in accepting grief. There isn't grief here anymore and all your groupies have gone away. Now its just you and your crackpot theories.

While you may have not intended it, your posts were completely demoralizing and only stoked voter apathy.

It looks like McCain/Palin weren't the only big losers in the 2008 election.

BTW Karl Rove etc. are now ancient history.. you may as well be discussing Nixon.

[tiptoe]

12. "its time for you to gracefully step aside" I'd prefer not to step aside (I'm not TIA) n/t